Macron, from neoliberal optimism to president of crises

Five years later, however, the extreme right exceeded 30% of the votes in the first round of April 10 and threatens to win the second, although the centrist leader is the favorite to win re-election, according to polls. This new probably tighter duel between Macron and Le Pen not only reflects a present shaken by a succession of crises —from the pandemic of the covid-19 until the war in Ukrainegoing through the inflation of energy prices—, but also a balance with chiaroscuros.

“The great success of Macron’s mandate has been the decrease in unemployment”, highlights the journalist François-Xavier Bourmaud, great political reporter in the conservative daily The Figaro and author of the book ‘Macron, l’invité surprise’, in statements to El Periódico. In fact, the macronist candidacy highlights the country’s good macroeconomic data. French GDP grew by 7% last year (in 2020 it fell by 8%) and unemployment fell to 7.4%, two points less than in 2017. “France suffered from a problem with mass unemployment and it was partly solved during the last five years”, underlines Bourmaud on the balance of a leader who had previously served as Minister of Economy, business banker in Rothschild and finance inspector, one of the most influential bodies in the French administration.

“There has been no miracle of job creation. worked”, clarifies, instead, the economic analyst Romaric Godin, of the left-wing digital ‘Mediapart’ and author of the essay ‘La guerre sociale en France’. He considers that this unemployment reduction policy is due “to the general recovery of the economy since 2015 and state subsidy policies aimed at companies, such as apprenticeship contracts for young people”, up to 900,000 in 2021 and which have a significant cost for the public treasury. In fact, “the average GDP growth during Macron’s term was 0.43%, while it had been 0.76% during the presidency of the socialist Francois Hollande and 0.29% in that of the conservative Nicholas Sarkozy”, recalls Godin, who questions the macronist economic miracle.

The current French economic situation is due to the “whatever it takes” policies applied during the pandemic. For example, an economic reconstruction plan, promoted in September 2020 and valued at 100,000 million euros. “But these are the same measures applied in many other countries, such as Germany, Italy or Spain,” says Godin. Faced with the current crisis of energy prices In the middle of the electoral period, the Macronist executive did not hesitate to take out his wallet. Thanks to the fact of having a state electricity company, France was able to limit the increase in electricity bill and at the same time the inflationof 4.5% in March.

At first glance, there is a clear contrast between the Macron of recent years, who presents himself as a “protective president”, and that young leader who arrived at the Elysee in the spring of 2017 with the promise of a “start-up nation”. . So, he “performed a series of neoliberal reforms that the Republican right had not dared to apply, such as the partial abolition of the Wealth Tax, a relaxation of the labor market or the status of the workers of the state railway company (SNCF)”.

These measures, along with a series of classist statements, earned him the reputation of “president of the rich” and favored the outbreak of the revolt of the yellow vests at the end of 2018. Then, he responded with a series of social measures, valued at 10,000 million, and his mandate entered a new stage that was more diffuse on an ideological level.

With the presentation of his new electoral program on March 17, he gave clear indications that he wanted to return to the reform agenda of the first years, by wanting to lengthen the retirement age from 62 to 65 years old (with 42 or 43 years of contributions) or conditioning the attribution of a minimum insertion income to the fact of working or studying. These proposals favored the electoral devouring of the Republican right, whose candidate only obtained 4% of the vote. Throughout this term, the center-right electorate felt more comfortable than the center-left.

Despite his reputation in 2017 as a “neoliberal-progressive” candidate, he barely made progress on civil rights —most prominent among them was passage of the assisted reproduction for all women— and backed tough policies against migrants and French Muslims. The Justice twice condemned his administration for climate inaction and that tarnished his balance in this crucial matter, despite promoting some interesting measures, such as the ban on flights in French territory as long as there is a two-and-a-half hour rail alternative . All this explains the reluctance of part of the left-wing electorate to vote for him despite the unlikely but real risk of a victory for the ultra Le Pen.