Tuesday night brings a couple of ranked matchups in the state, in the conference, between some of the best teams in the nation. Undefeated, top-ranked Baylor hosts Texas Tech, fresh off an impressive win against Kansas. And in Tuscaloosa, Crimson Tide will try to avoid the fate its soccer team suffered Monday night when it hosted the Tigers.
As usual, Kevin Sweeney he’s with me to place our college basketball bets. Let’s get into the games.
season record: 18-18
Guest pickers: 12-7-1
Check out the latest men’s college basketball lines on SI Sportsbook
Chris Jones / USA TODAY Sports
No. 19 Texas Tech (11-3) vs. No. 1 Baylor (15-0)
Hour: 7 pm Eastern Time | ESPN3
Spread: Texas Tech +12 (-118) | Baylor -12 (-110)
Below: Less than 135 (-110) | Over 135 (-110)
Money line: Texas Tech (+500) | Baylor (-901)
The Red Raiders rebounded quickly from a narrow road loss to Iowa State on Wednesday to beat then-No. 6 Kansas at home on Saturday. That victory allowed Texas Tech to climb six spots in the AP survey before their first meeting of the season against Baylor, the top ranked.
Texas Tech averaged 53 PPG in three contests against ranked opponents this season prior to its victory over the Jayhawks. TTU was 1-2 in those games before going for 75 points, about its season average, against KU. The Red Raiders have a suffocating defense that allows them 12th least number of points in DI (58.3) and ranks fifth in KenPom.com in adjusted defensive efficiency.
TTU offense is not lethal, it is tied for 103rd in points per game (75.7). However, the Red Raiders are efficient on that side of the ball. Texas Tech shoots more than 46% from the field, a mark of the top 40 in the country, and has four double-digit scorers, led by guard Terence Shannon Jr., capable of leading the team in scoring when called upon.
Baylor won its 21st straight game over the weekend, extending a streak that dates back to the Big 12 Tournament in 2021. That team, which later won the national championship, started the season 18-0, a mark that this iteration of the team Scott’s Drew is fast approaching. However, the strength of the Bears’ schedule is questionable to date. Baylor has a pair of top-25 wins, including one over Iowa State, a common opponent with Texas Tech. Still, the Bears ranked 50th on ESPN’s BPI Strength of Schedule.
The raw numbers for this team are staggering. Baylor has the 12 best offense (82.8 PPG) and Scoring defense No. 19 (59.5 PPG). There aren’t many metrics the Bears are lacking in: assists, 3-pointers, steals are all strong points. Senior point guard James Akinjo is the orchestrator of Baylor’s elite offense, contributing 14.4 points and 6.2 assists per game.
Kyle Wood’s bets
Money line or margin selection: Baylor-12.5
I was almost convinced to back the Red Raiders with points, but Baylor is too good, especially at home. This is a team that held then-No. 6 Villanova to 36 points in December at Waco. His victories on the road have been impressive; his home wins have been dominant. There is no team as complete as the Bears, and I think their defense can severely limit Texas Tech from keeping this game close in the second half.
Selection above / below: Less than 135
Texas Tech should keep Baylor’s offense relatively under control, that is, below 80 points. But to finish this game, the Red Raiders would have to have a respectable offensive outing as well, and that’s hard to see happen against the Bears. TTU’s last away game against a ranked opponent collected just 47 points. The fights on the road have been real for the Red Raiders, and Waco is not the place to resolve them.
Kevin Sweeney’s stakes
Money line or margin selection: Texas Tech +12
Texas Tech’s understaffing win over Kansas on Saturday was incredibly impressive because it was their most efficient offensive performance of the season despite missing two key pieces in Terrence Shannon and Kevin McCullar. Tech got what he wanted at the rim, beating KU 44-18 in the paint. I’m not sure they can fully replicate that recipe against a Baylor team that’s bigger and physically imposing up front than the Jayhawks, but Tech’s ability to get to the rim is huge in a game like this, and their defense is good enough. to keep this Baylor offense at 75 points or less. Best chance for Baylor to cover? James Akinjo has to guard the ball against one of the best defenders in the sport, one who forced 17 turnovers against Kansas over the weekend.
Selection above / below: Over 135
Baylor has scored 75 or more points in three consecutive games, all against the stingy defenses of the Big 12. Even if the Texas Tech defense puts on one of its best performances of the year, Baylor is too dynamic and too productive in transition to miss out. to 70 in this ball game. The question is can Tech score with them, and I think the Red Raiders can. The Big 12 teams are shooting 62% on 2-point shots against Baylor this season, and Texas Tech has the athletes to go downhill and play at the rim. The guy who could change this game (and the total) is TTU’s Clarence Nadolny, who played perhaps the best game of his career against KU over the weekend. Can it be a legitimate offensive weapon in a game like this?
John Reed / USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Auburn (14-1) vs. No. 24 Alabama (11-4)
Hour: 9 pm Eastern Time | ESPN
Spread: chestnut +3 (-118) | Alabama -3 (-110)
Below: Less than 156 (-110) | Over 156 (-110)
Money line: chestnut (+125) | Alabama (-161)
The Tigers keep winning: their last loss was on November 24. Auburn passed its biggest test to date when it beat then-undefeated LSU convincingly at home and opened the SEC game 3-0. Bruce Pearl’s team has more than earned their top-five ranking in this historic start of season. Auburn now gets its first chance of the season against heated rival Alabama, who swept the Tigers a season ago.
The Tigers aren’t the tightest scoring defense on paper, allowing 64.9 PPGbut KenPom.com the adjusted defensive efficiency metric ranks them fifth. Auburn continues to be among the best in the nation when it comes to defensive stats, ranking first in blocks per game (8.7) and 19th in steals (9.7). Offense averages a hair above 80 PPGpasses forward Jabari Smith, a 6-foot-10 freshman who leads the team in scoring and rebounding and can throw the ball from deep.
Alabama is 3-3 in its last six games after an 8-1 start to the season. The Crimson Tide skyrocketed to No. 6 in the AP Poll, and is now on the verge of being knocked out of the rankings with four losses to teams outside of the Top 25 on its résumé. Bama lost to a Missouri team below .500 on Saturday, giving up 92 points in the process.
Crimson Tide remains tough, with wins over Gonzaga and Houston under its belt, largely due to their high-scoring offense. from Alabama offense averages 82.5 PPGgood for the 15 most in the country. That scoring attack is led by guard Jaden Shackelford’s 16.3 PPG, aided by his barrage of triples.
Kyle Wood’s bets
Money line or margin selection: chestnut +3
It’s not an easy choice against the Tigers given their recent success, and it gives me even more confidence that they already have some conference experience, scoring an 81-66 win over South Carolina last week. Not only does Auburn win games during their streak, they outperform their opponents. Only two of his wins during the streak have been by single digits. Meanwhile, Alabama has been a sieve on defense with some bad losses of late.
Top / bottom selection: More than 156
Alabama has given up more than 90 points to its opponents twice in its last six games. Auburn will have no trouble taking advantage of Crimson Tide’s defensive shortcomings – the Tigers are averaging nearly 79 PPG in the SEC game. It’s easy to see Auburn scoring into the 80s, and Alabama won’t be far behind on its home court, where it hasn’t lost this season.
Kevin Sweeney’s stakes
Money line or margin selection: chestnut +3
Alabama is still a tough team to beat from a power rating perspective, as some painful losses balance out Tide’s big wins. No loss was more disconcerting than this weekend’s loss to Missouri, in which Alabama’s defense was torched by 92 points. If they replicate that defensive effort today, they could give up 110 points to an explosive Auburn team loaded with offensive weapons. With that said, I’m hoping for a better defensive effort today, and the home crowd should cheer for Tide to get some energy early. But Auburn is simply the best team in this place. Walker Kessler’s shot-blocking ability should make a big difference in this game, taking out Alabama units, and the Tigers’ shooting guards are excellent at guarding the ball.
Selection above / below: Less than 156
As I wrote previously, I expect a much better defensive effort from Alabama in this one than what we saw against Missouri. Nate Oats is too good of a coach not to have his team ready to score for 40 minutes in this one, and I think Tide will be able to keep the score low in a hostile environment. I also think Alabama’s offense will have trouble scoring at the rim in this game because of Kessler’s elite abilities to protect the rim, and that will be enough to keep this game out of the ’80s.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.