Monday, January 24

Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Prediction, Betting Trends for Big Ten Top 10 Showdown

Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Prediction, Betting Trends for Big Ten Top 10 Showdown

Michigan’s No. 6 travels to Michigan State’s No. 8 in a top-10 showdown on Saturday.

The start is scheduled for 12 pm. ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. The game will be televised on FOX.

Michigan (7-0) is off to its best start since 2016 with Jim Harbaugh. The Wolverines continue to win with a tough running game led by Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, and Aidan Hutchinson leads an improved defense. Michigan has won its last two visits to Spartan Stadium.

MORE: Jim Harbaugh faces a defining moment for the season

Michigan State (7-0) is the surprise team of the season with second-year coach Mel Tucker. Wake Forest transfer running back Kenneth Walker III leads the nation in rushing with 142.4 yards per game and has become a Heisman Trophy candidate, and quarterback Payton Thorne continues to be an underrated offense. The Spartans upset the Wolverines last year.

This is one of the most underrated rivalries in the country. In the last 38 meetings, only two teams have entered without qualifying. Saturday will mark the 11th time during that stretch that they are both in the Top 25. And the last 22 games have resulted in 11 wins for each side.

MORE: Walker, Hutchinson Named Midseason SN All-Americans

Both teams weren’t qualified to start the season, so suffice it to say that the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy looms bigger than ever in 2021. With that in mind, here’s everything you need to know about betting on the Michigan-Michigan State showdown:

Michigan vs. Michigan State odds

  • Spread: Michigan -4.5
  • Below: 50.5
  • Money line: Michigan -210, State of Michigan -168

Three trends to know

– Michigan State has been the underdog in all six meetings since Harbaugh took over at Michigan. The Spartans are 3-3 S / U and 4-2 ATS in those games.

2015. MU -7 MSU 27-23 MSU
2016 MU 24.5 MU 32-23 MSU
2017. MU -10 MSU 14-10 MSU
2018 MU -7 MU 21-7 UM
2019 MU -13.5 MU 44-10 UM
2020 MU -21.5 MSU 27-24 MSU

– Michigan has won the last two games at Spartan Stadium. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS this season. Michigan is 18-4 S / U as a road favorite with Harbaugh.

– This is the fifth meeting with both teams in the AP Top 10. The Spartans are 3-1 in those meetings, which took place between 1956-64.

MORE: Top 25 Picks Against Week 9 Spread

Three things to look at

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Smashing mouth football. Both teams will want to hammer the running game. Michigan averages 246.5 yards per game behind Haskins and Corum. Michigan State averages 200.4 with Walker. The defenses are almost mirror images against the race. The Wolverines have limited the Spartans to less than 60 rushing yards in four of the last six meetings, but Michigan State still won two of those games.

Michigan State Deep Threat Recipients. Thorne has been successful in the vertical passing game with Jayden Reed (20.8 yards per reception) and Jalen Nailor (18.9). The Wolverines couldn’t stop deep ball in last year’s loss, but they have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Macdonald. Rival quarterbacks have a 55.4% completion percentage against the Wolverines, and Hutchinson and David Ojabo have combined for 10 sacks. Will Thorne have enough time to push the ball downfield while keeping an eye on Michigan safety Daxton Hill?

Will Harbaugh let him go? Meanwhile, Michigan State has the worst pass defense in the Big Ten. Will that tempt Harbaugh to allow Cade McNamara, who averages 17 pass attempts per game, to pitch earlier in the game to relax the defense? Will rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy see a few more replays? Cornelius Johnson (20.1 ypc) and Daylen Baldwin (18.2) may also hit the field, but Michigan State has one of the best safeties in the country in Xavier Henderson.

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Statistics that matter

The Spartans are ranked 117th in the country in penalty yards per game (70.3). In a game of this magnitude, it shows. Michigan has also committed just four turnovers this season, so it is up to the State of Michigan to limit those costly penalties and create two or three turnovers at home in order to get upset.

Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction

There is a reason these two schools don’t like each other. They are practically the same team. It will all depend on which team sets up that early running game, and he’s in Michigan to stay focused around McNamara on the road. That happened with fast starts in Wisconsin and Nebraska, and if Michigan can do it again, they should be able to take control in the second half. Outlandish things have happened in this rivalry in the past, but the Wolverines surpass that in a thriller that lives up to the hype.

Final score: Michigan 29, Michigan State 23

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