Be honest, I wasn’t expecting this World Series.
Not when the Astros trailed 2-1 in the American League Championship Series to a seemingly unstoppable Red Sox lineup and Xander Bogaerts gave Boston an early lead in Game 4.
And certainly not when the brackets came out and the 88-win Braves, National League champions Minus … uh, East … had to face the Brewers and then the Dodgers.
Yet here we are, Braves-Astros, a clash of former “rivals” from the NL West.
The National League team of the 1990s faces the American League team of the past five years. The Astros are seeking their second championship in the past five years, while the Braves are seeking their first since 1995.
Game 1 in Houston features crafty veteran Charlie Morton, the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the Astros’ 2017 win over the Dodgers, against young Framber Valdez.
Here are some tips on how to bet on this game from Jennifer Piacenti and Matt Ehalt from SI. See the latest odds at Sports betting YES.
Brett Davis / USA TODAY Sports
MONEY LINE: ASTROS (-133); BRAVE (+110)
Nice: I like Houston on the money line.
The home advantage of Minute Maid Park cannot be underestimated. Framber was dominant in his last start against the Red Sox, and the Astros know Morton well.
Of course, this could also be the other way around, but I like a southpaw on the mound for Houston against Freddie Freeman and Eddie Rosario, who both hit righties better.
Also, the roof will be closed and Minute Maid will be rocking. Yordan Alvarez will be in the lineup and may be designated as designated with the rules of the American League in play. Advantage: Astros.
Ehalt: I’ll stick with Atlanta, especially with more odds.
Houston is the best team, but there is something about these Braves. They just beat the top two teams in the Brewers and the Dodgers. Those were not fortuitous victories.
I like Morton as the veteran here at this place. He’s pitched well this postseason and I think that continues into a Game 1 win for the Braves.
Morton also pitched 10 scoreless 2/3 innings spanning two starts against Houston in the American League Championship Series last year while with Tampa Bay, winning both games.
A troubling statistic for Atlanta is that it posted just a .732 OPS against lefties during the regular season, but the Braves did not fight a better southpaw in Julio Urias in the National League Championship Series. Valdez struggled with his dominance in Game 1 against Boston before bouncing back. The Braves may be able to capitalize on their debauchery.
LINE OF EXECUTION: ASTROS -1.5 (+145); BRAVE +1.5 (-175)
Nice: I keep taking the Astros.
I love the plus-money and I think they dominate in their first home game. Houston has 65 RBIs to Atlanta’s 39 this postseason. The Astros are hitting .281, the Braves are hitting .250, and yet only one home run separates them (Houston-13; Atlanta-12).
Ehalt: I don’t like -175 odds, but if I bet Atlanta to win outright, I’ll bet them on the race line at +1.5.
I think even if the Braves lose, they can keep this close. Two of Atlanta’s three losses in October have come by just one run.
Thomas Shea / USA TODAY Sports
PLUS / MINUS: 8.5; LOW (-118); MORE THAN (+100)
Nice: Man, that line is good.
The Astros bullpen will certainly give up some runs. I feel like the final will be 5-3, so I’ll stick with the final. Minute Maid Park is a bit more of a pitchers park.
Ehalt: The over / under will be fascinating considering the trends of these teams.
Houston is 94-71-7 this season in over / under and has collected the most in eight of 10 postseason games. Atlanta is 79-83-9 and 5-5 in October.
Valdez’s starts this postseason have averaged 10.67 runs scored per game (13, 9 and 10). Morton’s starts averaged 7.67 runs per game (3, 9 and 11). They are averaging 9.17 runs combined and have passed 8.5 in all but one start.
I trust these offenses more than the pitching in this series, and I think the middle bullpens can be tweaked a bit. Valdez has lasted more than five innings for just one in three starts, while Morton has yet to record an out in the seventh.
This game being played in Houston deepens Atlanta’s lineup and only adds to the offense. I’m going to lean on trends and take control.
See the latest odds at Sports betting YES
MONEY LINE AFTER 5 INPUTS: BRAVOS (+100), ASTROS (-125)
Nice: I’m staying with the Astros here.
They are on a roll and will be in front of the local crowd. The Astros are a 95-win team with a 51-30 record at home, including 4-1 this postseason.
Ehalt: If I lose to the Braves, I’ll go down swinging.
I’m more concerned with Atlanta losing a late lead than Houston jumping on Morton and knocking him out of the game.
Again, I like the positive odds here.
PROP: HIT A RACE AT HOME
Nice: Jose Altuve.
In 20 career at-bats against Morton, Altuve is hitting .316 with 2 home runs.
Twenty-four of Altuve’s 31 regular-season HRs this season were against right-handed pitchers, and 19 happened at home. I love the +500 here, and it seems Altuve is due to some heroic deeds at home. Reserve. Altuve HR.
Ehalt: Both pitchers allowed 0.8 home runs for every nine during the regular season.
Morton actually served more long balls to right-handers than left-handers this year, and there are some tantalizing odds for some of Houston’s right-handed hitters.
I like Yuli Gurriel with +600 considering that I am getting a better potential payout than Carlos Correa and Altuve. Morton has already hit two home runs in 14 1/3 innings this postseason, and I’d rather take the lead in the payoff with Gurriel.
Gurriel is 3-for-8 with a double against Morton in his career.
Atlanta has some strong potential options, but some of the odds are too low for me to bite. I also want to diversify my bets with the three Atlanta teams.
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www.si.com
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.