Thursday, March 28

Monday Morning Leafs Report: The Jake Muzzin conundrum and what now with no Michael Bunting


What to do with Jake Muzzin?

The Maple Leafs have to be wondering where exactly their 33-year-old defenceman fits into their postseason equation.

They’re in a difficult spot for a number of reasons.

For one thing, Muzzin has barely played since late February when he suffered his second concussion in as many months. He’s missed 27 of the last 31 games, including seven of the last eight with an undisclosed injury.

The Leafs say Muzzin is close to returning. The problem? There are only two games remain before the start of the playoffs.

Will Muzzin play Tuesday night against Detroit or Saturday against Boston? Neither? Both? Is any game action enough, given his age and all the time he’s missed and injuries he’s suffered, for him to be one of the Leafs best six defensive options for Game 1?

Leafs management wanted Muzzin to have the opportunity to get rolling before the playoffs. It’s why they opted not to stick him on LTIR for the remainder of the regular season and spend his money elsewhere.

This more recent injury has mostly robbed Muzzin of that opportunity.

When, or rather if, Muzzin returns, Sheldon Keefe’s staff have to ask some difficult questions regarding personnel.

No. 1: Who plays with Muzzin?
No. 2: Who comes out of the lineup in his place?

T.J. Brodie may be the likeliest answer to the first question.

Keefe teamed Muzzin back up with Justin Holl when he returned from his last concussion on Apr. 5. That didn’t go well and two nights later, Brodie got the nod on Muzzin’s right side and was there until Muzzin was gone again.

Clearly, the Leafs believe that Muzzin needs Brodie at this point. Or that the Muzzin-Holl combo is beyond saving.


Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl (Philip G. Pavely / USA TODAY)

Muzzin and Brodie haven’t played together much at all though. Just under 200 5-on-5 minutes, stop and start, over the past two seasons. That’s less than Morgan Rielly has played with Ilya Lyubushkin since the latter arrived from Arizona in late February.

The other thing: The coaching staff liked the Muzzin-Brodie combo last season. Not as much this season despite sstrong underlying numbers defensively. Muzzin and Brodie were together on Nov. 4 when the Leafs hosted the Lightning, their likely first round opponent.

Tampa’s speed caused the duo some problems.

A Muzzin-Brodie partnership instantly becomes the Leafs’ go-to option for combat with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.

Can they — can Muzzin? — handle that?

Handing Brodie over to Muzzin, meanwhile, keeps him away from Rielly. That makes for a weakened top pair, as the Leafs have seen in recent months while experimenting with Lyubushkin and Timothy Liljegren on the right side.

Defensive numbers for those pairs are the weakest of all the pairs the Leafs have used semi-regularly this season (heading into Sunday’s game in Washington):

Player 1

  

Player 2

  

xGF/60

  

xGA/60

  

xG±/60

  

Morgan Rielly

Timothy Liljegren

4.3

2.6

1.7

Justin Holl

Rasmus Sandin

2.9

2.6

0.3

Ilya Lyubushkin

Morgan Rielly

3.0

2.5

0.5

Jake Muzzin

Timothy Liljegren

2.4

2.5

-0.2

Morgan Rielly

T.J. Brodie

2.7

2.4

0.2

Jake Muzzin

Justin Holl

2.7

2.3

0.4

Jake Muzzin

T.J. Brodie

3.1

2.2

0.9

Justin Holl

T.J. Brodie

3.0

1.9

1.1

Rasmus Sandin

Timothy Liljegren

3.7

1.9

1.8

Rasmus Sandin

Travis Dermott

3.5

1.8

1.7

Mark Giordano

Timothy Liljegren

3.1

1.7

1.4

Timothy Liljegren

Travis Dermott

2.9

1.7

1.2

Slotting Brodie with Muzzin also keeps Brodie away from Justin Holl. (Everyone needs Brodie apparently.) Those two have formed arguably the most effective, high-usage defensive pairing for the Leafs all season when you factor in the difficulty of their deployment.

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If Holl isn’t playing with Brodie, and he’s not playing with Muzzin, where is he playing? Is he playing at all?

Holl has oddly spent almost no time with Rielly this season. It’s one of the few combinations that Keefe hasn’t explored. Holl went around the block with Mark Giordano a few times, to poor effect.

Holl should be playing somewhere though. He’s better than Lyubushkin. He’s more trustworthy and experienced dealing with heavier foes around his own net than Liljegren. He’s a useful cog on the penalty kill. But where does he go?

Is a Muzzin-Holl revival worth considering? For what it’s worth, the Leafs have a sparkling expected goals mark of 65 percent when Muzzin and Holl have been out there together since Jan. 1. Maybe it’s not dead after all.

The Giordano-Liljegren connection has cooled a bit after a blazing start. Has Liljegren done enough to lock down a spot for Game 1? If he has, it’s with Giordano — not Rielly.

So, who plays with Rielly in that case? Lyubushkin has looked increasingly exposed in top-pair duty and could be the odd man out if Muzzin returns.

Maybe the most uncomfortable question of all is whether Muzzin should play at all given how much time he’s missed and how well certain parts of the lineup (Brodie-Holl, Giordano-Liljegren) have functioned in his absence. It’s just difficult to see the Leafs sitting him out if he’s healthy — initially anyway. Or maybe not…

What is the ideal configuration if Muzzin is in the mix? Ideally, the Leafs create three trustworthy pairs that can play against any line, and three pairs, additionally, with experience as a unit.

One version of that, the deepest look in my estimation, looks like this:

Rielly – Brodie
Muzzin – Holl
Giordano – Liljegren

Rielly and Brodie have plenty of experience together. They can log big minutes and even split the top-line challenge with Muzzin and Holl. Heck, Giordano and Liljegren can chip in that way too.

I don’t feel great about Muzzin and Holl playing together again, honestly. They were blitzed in their one game together against Tampa this season — to the point of a mid-game breakup. Holl has played much better since then (primarily without Muzzin) and those numbers are what they are.

Pair Muzzin with Brodie and you’re looking at something like this:

Rielly – Lyubushkin/Holl
Muzzin – Brodie
Giordano – Liljegren

That leaves the Leafs with a vulnerable top pair, potentially.

The Leafs could give the Muzzin-Liljegren combo another look and team Giordano up with Holl.

Rielly – Brodie
Giordano – Holl
Muzzin – Liljegren

Liljegren struggled in earlier top-four spins with Muzzin, but he’s improved a lot since then. Maybe the Leafs lighten their load, splitting the top-line challenge between the Rielly and Giordano pairs.

Alternatively, there’s the option of reuniting Giordano and Brodie. The two former Calgary Flames partners finally took their first regular turn together with the Leafs on Sunday night. “There’s a little bit of rust there,” Giordano acknowledged afterward.

Does this work?

Rielly – Lyubushkin
Giordano – Brodie
Muzzin – Holl/Liljegren

Ideally, all this stuff would have been solved well before the playoffs. Injuries often take ideal out of the equation. The Leafs are better with the best version of Muzzin. Do they have that guy? And if they do, which seems unlikely, what then? Where does Muzzin at 70 percent fit in?

Perhaps this isn’t a conundrum at all.

Maybe the Leafs have already determined that Muzzin won’t be part of their Game 1 lineup. That he’s simply missed too much time and run out of, well, runway to get back up and running for kickoff.

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Five Points

1. The Bunting absence

The Leafs didn’t say what exactly knocked Michael Bunting from Saturday’s game in Florida or how long he’ll be out. It doesn’t sound like a day-to-day thing though, which means Bunting could be sidelined when the playoffs get underway.

That’s a big deal, a big loss for the Leafs.

Bunting had established himself as the perfect third wheel to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. More than that, he brought a distinct nightly brand of energy and competitiveness that figured to shine even brighter in the postseason. They really have no one else like him.

“Obviously (Bunting) means a lot to this team,” Matthews said.


Michael Bunting and Ross Johnston (Nick Turchiaro / USA TODAY)

“It’s a big loss for us,” Keefe concurred. “He’s a unique player for our group with his skill-set and his energy and his attitude that he plays with. We’ve grown to really appreciate what he does.”

Bunting’s absence creates a void on the left wing of the top line. Filling it with William Nylander obviously isn’t a bad thing. That line dominated their minutes against Florida and created some flurries (if also a goal against) in Washington.

Uniting Nylander with Matthews and Marner also nets Nylander a bump in opportunity. He logged almost 22 minutes against the Capitals after grabbing 21 against the Panthers.

A lineup with that look up top probably looks something like this:

Possible configuration without Bunting

Line LW C RW

1

Nylander

Matthews

Marner

2

Mikheyev

Tavares

Kerfoot

3

Engvall

Kampf

Blackwell

4

Clifford

Spezza

Simmonds

The problem with keeping Nylander there is the trickle-down effect on the rest of the lineup. The Leafs were already feeling thin and top-heavy up front before Bunting’s injury (with Ondrej Kase still sidelined). Moving Nylander up means Colin Blackwell climbing up as well, which has the effect of thinning an already thin fourth line.

It means, potentially, having to play Jason Spezza at centre, which Keefe would clearly like to avoid.

He may have no other choice.

2. PK pairs

One place the Muzzin-Brodie pair has worked especially well: The penalty kill.

It’s been the Leafs’ most effective pairing this season (albeit in very limited minutes):

PK pairings

Player 1 Player 2 TOI SA/60 FA/60 xGA/60

Jake Muzzin

T.J. Brodie

18.9

25.9

42.1

3.6

Ilya Lyubushkin

Morgan Rielly

16.8

41.6

53.9

4.6

Justin Holl

T.J. Brodie

63.2

52.7

62.5

5.3

Morgan Rielly

Timothy Liljegren

23.2

38.8

50.4

5.3

Morgan Rielly

T.J. Brodie

71.4

50.2

64.8

5.9

Timothy Liljegren

T.J. Brodie

10.1

48.2

71.9

6.0

Jake Muzzin

Timothy Liljegren

10.0

56.1

75.0

6.4

Jake Muzzin

Justin Holl

82.8

51.2

69.8

7.3

Justin Holl

Morgan Rielly

11.6

53.9

75.2

8.6

3. A note on T.J. Brodie

Brodie wins this year’s inaugural underappreciated Leaf award. (He’s understandably overlooked. The Leafs are booming with stars and Brodie’s game is mostly subtle.) Though he had some bumps in Washington, the 31-year-old ranks right near the top of the league in Evolving-Hockey’s expected goals above replacement even-strength defensive metric — which tries to quantify defensive contributions.

Add in Brodie’s contributions on the penalty kill (he’s been easily the Leafs best defender there this season) and he ranks even higher.

There’s Brodie in Jaccob Slavin territory.

This dude doesn’t just look like an elite defender. He is an elite defender.

4. Mystery man

One guy not mentioned in any of those conversations about the defence: Rasmus Sandin.

The Leafs are hopeful that Sandin can return from a knee injury this week.

Sandin hasn’t participated in a full practice (the Leafs haven’t had many of late) since he injured his knee mysteriously in Nashville in mid-March. The first opportunity to do so will be after the Leafs host the Red Wings in game No. 81 on Tuesday.


Rasmus Sandin (Dan Hamilton / USA TODAY)

Sandin was putting together an excellent season on the third pair before the injury. The addition of Giordano, however, along with the injury, likely keeps him out of the initial playoff mix. He gives the Leafs another option on the left side though, which can’t hurt with Muzzin’s uncertain status.

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5. Jason Spezza rising?

It’s a small thing, but Spezza has picked up points in three straight games, including a couple goals. He had a power-play goal wiped away in Washington, but squeezed one in later with the net empty.

It’s gone a little better for him in the last 10 games (52 percent expected goals) — though the utility of a Kyle Clifford-Jason Spezza-Wayne Simmonds fourth line is still uncertain. (The Leafs might not have a choice at this point.)

Spezza was one of the Leafs best, most engaged, players in the playoffs last year. Anything close to that this time around would be a big help given the injuries (Bunting, Kase) and depth concerns.

Things I Think I Think

Auston Matthews return to health comes in the nick of time

The Leafs downplayed whatever ailment it was that kept Matthews out for three games last week. Even if it was just a matter of maintenance, with the playoffs around the corner, it was concerning no less. If it was even a little more serious, Matthews’ status for Game 1 might be in question right now.

That Matthews has returned and looked, if not fully dominant, then pretty close is no small thing. Matthews finished with 24 shot attempts over the weekend. He didn’t score, which extended his goal drought to a season-long five games. But he was all around the puck as usual.

The Leafs aren’t going anywhere good without the fully operational Matthews. It appears they’ve got that guy back just when they need him.

Of note: Matthews’ 82-game pace this season: 66 goals, 119 points.

Object of Curiosity

Will the Leafs employ more load management this week?

John Tavares and Liljegren were both given the night off on Sunday for rest purposes. Will the Leafs rest any more high-usage players in either of their two remaining games?

It’s something they’ve done occasionally in the past.

In their final regular season game last season, Marner took a seat. Two years before that, old man Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev were given the load management treatment in the final game of the regular season.

The Leafs have been keen on limiting Jack Campbell’s workload of late — handing two of the last three starts to Erik Källgren. They might be inclined to send one more start Källgren’s way against the Red Wings or even in game No. 82 against the Bruins.

“It’s a balance here now right,” Keefe said on that subject. “You want to keep Jack rested and most importantly, healthy. At the same time, a goalie wants his reps. He wants to touch the puck and be in the net and all of that.”

Sandin can, potentially, give one of Brodie, Rielly, or Giordano a game off. Nick Abruzzese can slip in if the Leafs want to rest Marner. Injuries in a salary cap world limit load management possibilities. The Leafs should be able to do something though.

MMLR takes a seat for the playoffs. Thanks to everyone for reading all year long!

(Top photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Hockey Reference




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