Saturday, December 4

NBA ‘SO / UP’ betting and analysis: Warriors-Nets, Spurs-Clippers


Brooklyn and Golden State hold two of the best records in basketball and are up for grabs Tuesday night.

The best teams are starting to pull away from the group with another week of games behind us. Two of those teams, Golden State and Brooklyn, are in action Tuesday.

Last week was difficult for the SO / UP audience, I’ll be honest. But I am ready to recover this week and I am happy to welcome my colleague Ben Pickman as this week’s guest selector. Let’s get into the games.

Season record: 19-17

Guest collectors: 11-19

Kyle Terada / USA TODAY Sports

Golden State Warriors (11-2) vs. Brooklyn Nets (10-4)

Weather: 7:30 pm ET, TNT

Spread: Warriors +3 (-110) | Networks -3 (-110)

Money line: Warriors (+125) | Networks (-150)

Total: Less than 221.5 (-110) | Over 221.5 (-110)

Injuries: Warriors G Klay Thompson: Out; Warriors G Gary Payton II – Day to Day; Nets G Joe Harris – Day to Day; Nets F Paul Milsap: day by day

Golden State’s winning streak ended in seven games Sunday at Charlotte. That was just the Warriors’ second loss of the season, the fewest in basketball. They have the most wins and best winning percentage in the NBA and can still point to their number one offense (115.1 points per game) and number three defense (101.8 points per game) as further proof that they are back.

Golden State hits 15.2 triples a game, which leads the league, and Stephen Curry’s 28.1 PPG each night gives him the second-best record. Jordan Poole has taken a big step as a scorer alongside Curry, you no longer need to see your shots go into the hoop. The Warriors have a point differential of +13.2 points per game. The next closest is Miami, which is +6.6 PPG. Golden State is at the peak of its powers.

The Nets return to Brooklyn after a 5-1 road trip with three of their wins by double digits. The season got off to a rocky start, 2-3, but Brooklyn is 8-1 since then and is second in the East behind the Wizards, as expected. The defense, not the offense, is paying the Nets’ bills. Brooklyn is a mediocre offensive team (108.5 points per game) and boasts the No. 6 scoring defense (103.5 points per game). James Harden is playing and pitching much better in November and Kevin Durant, who leads the league in scoring at nearly 30 a night, is playing at his usual MVP level.

Propagation selection: Warriors +3

Golden State has one of the best Against the Spread (ATS) records in basketball (8-4-1), and it’s not often that you bet on the Warriors as an underdog. Brooklyn is 7-7 ATS. I like the points here. They still haven’t played much on the road this season, but they are 3-1 on the road with the only loss coming in Golden State’s last game, a night off for Curry at Charlotte. Don’t bet that will happen consecutively for Curry and the Warriors.

Selection above / below: Over 221.5

These teams haven’t finished often. The Brooklyn games have only been beaten five times in 14 games. Golden State has done it less often, four out of 13. That’s because the Nets and Warriors have great defense. They also have three all-time offensive players between them, and I think offense is the prevailing thing tonight. It’s not hard to see both teams in the 110-point neighborhood with two of the league’s top scorers, Curry and Durant, on the floor.

Shore up: Steph Curry Over 5.5 assists

Curry is averaging nearly one more full assist per game this season than last. It’s good for 6.7 dimes per game and you’ve already dealt 10 four times. In games where Curry has been teased, like Golden State’s recent loss to Charlotte, he has gotten involved by passing the ball more. I don’t see a bad game coming up for Curry, but I think Brooklyn will try to kick him out of his places and Curry is more than a good enough playmaker to make the Nets pay to double him.

See the original article for embedded media.

Check the latest odds on SI Sportsbook

Guest selector Ben pickman Carry:

Propagation selection: Networks -3

The Warriors continue their tour Tuesday night against the Nets, looking to bounce back from Sunday’s loss to the Hornets. His game against Brooklyn is only his fifth road contest of the season and represents by far his biggest test yet. Golden State has been super impressive this season, perhaps no more so than on the defensive side of basketball, where it leads the league in defensive rating.

Along with the play of star guard Stephen Curry, his depth has been instrumental in jumping to an 11-2 start. Still, how the Warriors contain Nets stars Kevin Durant and James Harden remains a question going into action Tuesday. Durant enters with an average of 29.6 points, the best in the league, 8.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. While he averaged just 21 points per game in his two appearances against the Warriors last year, expect more Tuesday night as he leads the Nets to a close victory.

Selection above / below: Less than 221.5

Sure, the Nets and Warriors have some of the biggest names in the sport, but the key to the Warriors’ success this season has been their defense, which allows a league minimum of 99.3 points per 100 possessions and has seen opponents shoot only 42.6% against them. The Nets defense has also been ahead of their offense this season, currently ranking No. 7 in defensive index, allowing just 103.4 points per game. And, like the Warriors, they hold their opponents to just 42.6% shooting, tied for third in the league. Expect this to be a lower scoring matter than the line suggests.

Shore up: Patty Mills to score 15 or more points

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Mills play a central role in the Nets’ offense on Tuesday night. He is coming off a 29-point outing against the Thunder over the weekend and three times this season he has scored 20 or more points in one game. Mills is a dangerous three-point shooter who is fully capable of getting hot. Considering his importance on offense with Kyrie Irving out, he could play a significant role in the contest if the Nets survived Golden State.

San Antonio Spurs (4-9) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (8-5)

Weather: 10:30 pm ET

Spread: Spurs +7.5 (-110) | Clippers -7.5 (-110)

Money line: Spurs (+240) | Clippers (-300)

Total: Less than 219.5 (-110) | Over 219.5 (-110)

Injuries: Spurs C Jakob Poeltl: Out; Clippers F Marcus Morris Sr. – Out; Clippers G Terance Mann – Day by Day

San Antonio finds itself in an unknown situation in the basement of the Western Conference. The Spurs lost their last two games thanks to their sieve-like defense. They allow the ninth most points in the NBA (109.5 PPP). However, they are also ninth in scoring (109.6 PPG) despite not having a 20 PPG scorer on the list. San Antonio has seven players averaging over 10 points per game, led by Dejounte Murray, a triple-double threat on any given night. The Spurs youth core is playing well, it just isn’t showing up in wins.

The Clippers wrap up a six-game stretch at home against the Spurs and are looking for their fifth win in that stretch. Los Angeles has managed to stay well within the playoff box without Kawhi Leonard thanks to the play of Paul George. Fresno State’s product leads the team in scoring, rebounding and assists per game and its 26.5 points per game are good for the top five in the NBA. The Clippers are an intermediate offensive team (108.5 PPG) and a top-five scoring defense (103.3 PPG). George has five teammates averaging double figures alongside him, but the Clippers lack a true inside presence.

Propagation selection: Clippers -7.5

LA is 6-3 at home and San Antonio 2-5 on the road. The Clippers just came out of a loss to a good Bulls team and will be able to bounce back against the humble visiting Spurs. I think this is an easy cover for Los Angeles. These teams have identical ATS records (7-6), so the best team gets the upper hand here. The Clippers are rolling, having beaten Miami a week ago and then Minnesota by 27. On Tuesday they are back on track against the Spurs.

Selection above / below: Less than 219.5

The Clippers should dictate the pace of this game and keep the Spurs below their scoring average with their solid defense. San Antonio games have surpassed the third-highest rate in the NBA (7-5-1), but LA keeps the Spurs in check with their lean wing defenders.

Shore up: Dejounte Murray Over 17.5 points

I like this bet because Murray is averaging 18.4 points per game on the year, surpassing 17.5 in his last game when he scored 22. Murray has shot more in November and shot at a better rate. He’ll have to make a lot of shots to keep the Spurs in the game against the Clippers, certainly enough to hit this mainstay.

See the original article for embedded media.

Check the latest odds on SI Sportsbook

Guest selector Ben pickman Carry:

Propagation selection: Clippers -6.5

Paul George is playing some of the best basketball of his career earlier this season. His average score of 26.5 per game is the best of his career, while his 8.2 rebounds per game are tied for the best mark of his career. Stopping George will be a tall order for the Spurs, who, while dependent on a number of intriguing young players, have only beaten one playoff team from last season in the 2021-22 campaign. Los Angeles dropped Sunday’s game to the Bulls, but had won all seven of their games before that, including earning impressive victories over the Heat and Trail Blazers. They’ve beaten bad teams this season and should beat the Spurs on Tuesday.

Selection above / below: Less than 219.5

The Clippers are No. 2 in the NBA in opposing field goal percentage (42.4%) and third overall in defensive rating. While the Spurs are closer to the league average on defense, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Neither offense has been particularly efficient this season either, and both entered Tuesday night’s game in the lower half of the league. The result will be a game that hits the lows.

Shore up: Dejounte Murray triples Over 1.5

Murray is averaging a career-high 18.4 points per game this season, but he’s only taking four three-point attempts per game. Despite averaging just 1.3 marks per game, also a career high, Murray has seemed more aggressive from deep this season. Five times this year he has scored five more triples in one game. And, in six of her 13 appearances, she has made two or more triples, creating a bit of value in this accessory. The Spurs will need to score to keep up with the Clippers and Murray will be instrumental in that attack.

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DFS Value Reproductions:

PG Mike Conley, Jazz (DF: $ 5,700 | DK: $ 6,200)

SG / PG Eric Bledsoe, Clippers (DF: $ 6,000 | DK: $ 5,200)

SF / PF Keldon Johnson, Spurs (DF: $ 6,900 | DK: $ 6,000)

C / PF LaMarcus Aldridge, Networks (DF: $ 5,600 | DK: $ 4,800)

C Ivica Zubac, Clippers (DF: $ 5,600 | DK: $ 4,900)

Check the latest odds on SI Sportsbook

More NBA and bets:

  • Warriors enjoying skepticism
  • Latest NBA Power Rankings
  • CBB Tuesday Night Betting Manual
  • My favorite bet: first Super Bowl score




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