The Warriors and Suns, the top two teams in the NBA, take to the court Tuesday night. Golden State is the favorite on the road against the Knicks as Stephen Curry chases Ray Allen for the top spot on the all-time 3-point list. Phoenix is a favorite on the road as well against the struggling Trail Blazers.
SI host Robin Lundberg is this week’s guest host. Let’s get into the games.
Season record: 41-37
Guest pickers: 22-50
Check out the latest NBA lines on SI Sportsbook
Golden State Warriors (22-5) vs. New York Knicks (12-15)
- Hour: 7:30 pm ET, TNT
- Smeared: Warriors -4.5 (-110) | Knicks +4.5 (-110)
- Money line: Warriors (-200) | Knicks (+165)
- Total: Under 211.5 (-110) | Over 211.5 (-110)
Injuries: Warriors F Andre Iguodala – Out; Knicks F. Obi Toppin: Out; Knicks G RJ Barrett: Out; Knicks G Alec Burks: the day to day
The Warriors narrowly beat the Pacers Monday night in Indiana, and Stephen Curry nearly broke the all-time record for three points. He will have another attempt on the biggest stage in basketball: Madison Square Garden. Golden State is 4-3 in its last seven games, which by its high standards count as “struggling” after an 18-2 start.
Golden State has the No. 3 scoring offense in the NBA, averaging 112.1 points per game. Curry is getting great contributions from Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole on offense and Draymond Green is as dominant as ever in the league’s best defense.
New York is off to a 1-5 start in December. Kemba Walker’s removal from the lineup has apparently created more problems than it did. The Knicks are 2-7 without him and 10-8 with him. Julius Randle is also shooting the worst field goal percentage of his career and has already stayed below 10 points three times.
Without Randle playing at his All-Star level, NY no longer has a solid defense to lean on. The Knicks are 17th in scoring defense (107.4 points per game) and 22nd in scoring offense (105.8 points per game). In many of their recent games, the Knicks haven’t been competitive, losing 15 to the Bucks, 20 to the Pacers and 14 to the Nuggets in the last week.
With nothing to back this up at all, it’s hard to imagine the Warriors celebrating Curry making history on the most famous court in the country and losing. Okay, now for the mathematical reasons that Golden State covers. The Warriors are 17-9-1 Against the Spread (ATS) this season, the second-best in the league. The Knicks are 11-16 ATS, the third-worst record in basketball. New York is 5-9 at home and Golden State is 8-3 on the road. The Warriors have lost a few games recently, but the Knicks are in freefall. This is an easy cover for the Dubs and ends with a huge celebration at MSG.
Spread selection: Warriors -4.5
The Warriors have the best defense in the NBA and the Knicks have failed to score 100 points in consecutive games. Golden State also has a top-three scoring offense, though its scoring numbers have dropped in recent weeks. Warriors games go under 73.1% of the time; Knicks games are down 55.6%.
Selection above / below: Less than 211.5
Curry, by his standards, has been content the last three games: 26, 18 and 22 points are all below his season average of 27. Who can say if the record is in his mind or the opponents are trying actively to prevent the record from being lost? against them. However, when he breaks the record, probably sometime in the first half, the pressure is low and he can shoot freely. Curry was 37 the last time he played at the Garden. Scoring 26 is not a very high bar to beat.
Shore up: Stephen Curry over 25.5 points
Picks from Guest Selector Robin Lundberg
I don’t want this selection to be clearly caught up in the drama of Steph Curry breaking the record of three points at Madison Square Garden because there are reasons to choose the Knicks. Mainly because the Warriors blew up today and are in a back-to-back fight, not to mention New York is desperate for a win. However, I have successfully chosen against the Knicks in the midst of their current regression, and they will be without Obi Toppin and RJ Barrett. Also, the Knicks ‘fondness for playing through Julius Randle’s slow isolations should favor the Warriors’ defense. And then there’s Steph’s talent for the dramatic.
Spread selection: Warriors -4.5
I got to see the Warriors get up early in the hype of getting Curry the record and then take my foot off the gas a bit as the game progresses. They can also be gassed in the second half. I already mentioned that I like his defense in a matchup against the Knicks’ attacking style, and New York has stayed under 100 points in three of the last five games, with a 102 outing being one of the exceptions. So I like the bottom part here.
Selection above / below: Less than 211.5
Draymond has been very eloquent about the circumstances of this game. Given that and the focus on this one, I bet he plays with a little extra energy (and that means a lot). Plus, with the focus on Steph, Green may be making a lot of plays like an outing for Curry and his usual all-around impact.
Shore up: Draymond Green over 21.5 points plus rebounds and assists
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina / USA TODAY Sports
Phoenix Suns (21-5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (11-16)
- Hour: 10 pm ET, TNT
- Smeared: Suns -1.5 (-110) | Trail Blazers +1.5 (-110)
- Money line: Suns (-118) | Trail Blazers (+100)
- Total: Less than 219.5 (-110) | Over 219.5 (-110)
Injuries: Suns C DeAndre Ayton – Day by day; Suns G Devin Booker: Out; Trail Blazers G CJ McCollum – Out; Trail Blazers C Cody Zeller: Out
The Suns have slowed down a bit after their 18-game winning streak. In the past week, Phoenix lost to the Warriors and Clippers, both by double digits, while Devin Booker remains out of the game with a hamstring injury. Phoenix has had plenty of players in Booker’s absence, while Deandre Ayton and Frank Kaminsky have wasted time. Eight Suns players are averaging 10 or more points, including McGee, a starter from center.
Phoenix is in the top 10 in scoring offense (110.8 PPG) and defense (104.7 PPG). The Suns have the third-best point differential in the league (+6.0), and they’ve done well on the road this season, going 9-3 outside of Arizona.
Portland is 2-8 in its last 10 and enters a five-game losing streak Tuesday that is worse than it looks. The Blazers are losing an average of 17.2 points during that stretch. Franchise confusion and business rumors aside, the team just isn’t playing good basketball. It may not be fair to remove the anguish surrounding the team from the equation, but the record speaks for itself.
Damian Lillard will always keep a team competitive on offense, but the team is missing CJ McCollum. Portland’s 25th scoring defense (111.2) prevents the team from having the success it has been known for in recent years.
Portland started the dominant season on its own court. That has changed in recent weeks. The Trail Blazers lost 31 at home to the Spurs and then lost their next two games at the Moda Center. These two teams split the season series 1-1 so far, but the Suns are in a much better place, even without Booker. Phoenix isn’t particularly good at ATS (13-13), but Portland has the worst ATS record (10-17).
Spread selection: Suns -1.5
Even in its recent huge losses at home, Portland scored more than 110 points in two of those three games. The Suns have had lower-scoring results in recent weeks, but playing a Trail Blazers team with few players and terrible defense is a great way to get it right. Boston arrived in Portland on December 4 and scored 145 points. The Blazers are not defending their home court well and Phoenix will take advantage.
Selection above / below: Over 219.5
Paul’s season average (14.2 points per game) is more than two points below this line. Additionally, he has fallen behind in six of his last seven games, including a nine-point outing in a loss to his former team, the Clippers. I think the Suns cover easily, which won’t require Paul to score a lot of points or play big minutes. Give me the bottom, and I wouldn’t mind taking over his 9.5 assists, either.
Shore up: Chris Paul less than 16.5 points
Picks from Guest Selector Robin Lundberg
I hate riding two teams in a row, but as a general rule, I choose with good teams and against bad (great strategy). The Phoenix Suns have only lost two games in a row once this season, and that was in October. And I think the wheels have come off in Portland as the Blazers are on a five-game streak and crashed most of them. Neither team is in full health on this one, but I’ll get back to work here and go with the Suns, even though Phoenix is only 1-4 against the spread with no days off this year.
Spread selection: Suns -1.5
The Blazers have scored well at home, but they are averaging just 99 points overall in the last five games and, as mentioned above, the Suns are coming in consecutively. When you combine that with the absences of CJ McCollum, Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton, I see a lower-than-normal-scoring game between these two teams.
Selection above / below: Less than 219.5
Someone has to take over on offense with Ayton and Booker out. And given the Blazers’ lack of defensive prowess in general, I think Bridges can top that number on activity alone.
Shore up: Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points
DFS Value Reproductions
(Prices based on the main board at 7:30 pm)
- PG / SG Jordan Poole, Warriors (FD: $ 6,300 | DK: $ 5,800)
- SG / SF Alec Burks, Knicks (DF: $ 5,600 | $ 6,300)
- SF Andrew Wiggins, Warriors (DF: $ 5,900 | $ 6,200)
- PF / C Chris Boucher, Raptors (FD: $ 5,100 | $ 4,800)
- C JaVale McGee, Suns (DF: $ 5,400 | $ 4,200)
More betting, fantasy and college basketball:
• Men’s CBB betting: Furman-North Carolina, Alabama-Memphis
• Week 14 Bad Beats
• NBA Against The Spread Trends
• Week 15 Waiver Cable
• Waiver cable for internally displaced persons from week 15
• Five NCAA Coaches Who Exceed Expectations
• My favorite bet: first Super Bowl score
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.