The Nets are living up to preseason expectations. The other four teams on Tuesday’s schedule SO / UP? Not that much.
Doug Vázquez is back as our Guest Selector. Let’s get into the games.
Season record: 35-31
Guest pickers: 20-40
Check out the latest NBA lines on SI Sportsbook
Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Weather: 7:30 pm ET, TNT
Spread: Networks -3.5 (-110) | Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
Money line: Networks (-167) | Mavericks (+140)
Total: Less than 215.5 (-110) | Over 215.5 (-110)
Injuries: Mavericks G Luka Doncic: day to day; Mavericks F Tim Hardaway Jr. – Day to Day; Mavs C Kristaps Porzingis – Day by day; Mavericks C Willie Caulie-Stein: the day to day
Brooklyn rose to first place in the Eastern Conference thanks to the consistent greatness of Kevin Durant, constantly improving the game of James Harden and the dependable contributions of LaMarcus Aldridge. Who can say how that Big 3 will hold up against the NBA’s best trios with a 36-year-old Aldridge at the rear, but for now it’s working for Steve Nash and the Nets.
All of Brooklyn’s losses came against playoff teams – they are 7-0 against teams below .500 and 9-7 against teams above .500, according to ClutchPoints.
The Nets rank 12th in scoring offense (109.5 PPG), with a large percentage of their points coming from Durant (28.6 PPG) and Harden (20.6 PPG). Brooklyn is 11th in scoring defense (105.8 points per game) and has the sixth best point differential (+3.6 points per game).
The Mavericks are in a tailspin, having lost seven of their last 10 games to fall to .500. Dallas has drawn a particularly tough schedule of late, which has the Suns and Clippers on their back-to-back streak. Availability has been a problem: The team is 0-4 without Luka Doncic and 3-4 without Kristaps Porzingis, who are on the injury report.
The Mavericks’ offense is among the worst in the league. Dallas is ranked 25th in scoring offense (104.5 points per game), a decrease of eight points from last season. A league average defense (106.2 PPG) keeps the Mavericks afloat.
Kyle Wood Picks:
Propagation selection: Networks -3.5
The Nets haven’t done well Against the Spread (ATS), covering less than 40% of their games. The Mavericks haven’t been much better, covering just over 40% of the time. I go with the best team that is 8-2 on the road.
Over / Under Selection: Under 218.5
Both teams’ games go below half the time, and their defenses outperform their offenses. Dallas’ inability to score is convincing me to try it out. Even if Brooklyn flirts with 110, this game can still fall short.
Item: James Harden Points + Assists over 31.5
Harden can beat a total of 31.5 points on any given night. Add in his 9.5 assists per game and that’s a great cushion. He failed to outperform in his last two outings, hitting 28 and 29 in those games, but I like that he puts it all together against Dallas.
Picks from Guest Selector Doug Vazquez:
Propagation selection: Networks -3.5
Following a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday, the Nets head to the Big D to face the shaky Mav. Its top three players (Doncic, Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr.) have been battling injuries, but they should be ready to go. Even with the loss to Chicago and the shooting streak of late, Brooklyn has won nine of 12. Losing Joe Harris has been significant, and Harden has been very inconsistent of late. His defense has been really good, which has made up for some of his offensive problems. Even if Dallas has its big 3 back, I think the Nets are too good on defense. Expect a great game from Durant, who is having an MVP-caliber season. I am putting the 3.5 here.
Over / under selection: over 218.5
Both teams have been struggling their way with injuries and inconsistent shooting, but both should be fairly rested Tuesday and key players will return from injuries for Dallas. Given that Doncic and Durant are two of the most outstanding scorers the league has ever seen, I feel like the total here is a bit low at 218.5. I’ll take care.
Object: James Harden over 21.5 points
I hope a couple of days off bodes well for Harden. He’s been kind of a wild card on the offensive side, but this is a good chance for him to score some points. With Harris out of the game and Harden struggling, the Nets should look to get Harden back on track and let him get away with the ball.
Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Weather: 10:30 pm ET, TNT
Spread: Celtics +2.5 (-110) | Lakers -2.5 (-110)
Money line: Celtics (+115) | Lakers (-138)
Total: Less than 220.5 (-110) | Over 220.5 (-110)
Injuries: Celtics G Jaylen Brown – Day to Day; Lakers F Trevor Ariza: Out; Lakers G Kendrick Nunn: Out
Boston has never been too hot or cold this season. Two wins here, some losses there. Guard Jaylen Brown has lost considerable time, while Jayson Tatum’s shooting attempts are up and his field goal percentage is down. Tatum remains the Celtics’ best player, leading Boston in points per game (25.2) and rebounds per game (8.8).
The Celtics have the 12th best scoring offense (108.9 points per game) and the 15th defense (106.5 points per game). Boston is 7-7 out of TD Garden.
The Lakers have yet to find a rhythm with their new roster. A big part of that is due to injuries to LeBron James and Talen Horton-Tucker, two of three carry-overs from last season. Anthony Davis’ counting stats have been pretty respectable, but he’s not the force he once was and Russell Westbrook has already shown Los Angeles fans the full experience of Russ, both the good and the bad.
Los Angeles has no trouble scoring. The Lakers have the fourth-ranked scoring offense (111.7 points per game) thanks to Westbrook, James and Davis averaging at least 20 points. Defense, long a hallmark of teams coached by Frank Vogel, is concern. The Lakers are ranked 29th in opponents scoring (113.4 points per game).
Kyle Wood Picks:
Spread pick: Lakers -2.5
The Celtics won by 22 the last time these two teams played in Boston and in James’ first game after a long absence. Los Angeles is approaching a healthy team baseline and needs to make a move to the top six seeds with a full quarter of the season. Lakers beat their 8-16 ATS record and cover at home.
Over / Under Selection: Over 217.5
LA is a defensive sieve with the offensive firepower to at least counter his flaws on the other side of the ball. Boston also has a great offense, scoring 130 and 145 in its last two games. This game should end relatively easily.
Target: Russell Westbrook over 7.5 assists
Westbrook is averaging 8.6 assists, which already gives me some comfort taking over. Throw in the fact that he’s beaten three of his last five games and this should be a high-scoring contest and I’m all over Westbrook handing out eight or more dimes.
Picks from Guest Selector Doug Vazquez:
Spread pick: Celtics +2.5
After splitting the first two games of their five-game road trip, the Celtics face their arch-rivals Lakers. Brown has been out the last two games and is questionable. That hasn’t hampered Boston’s offense, as they averaged 137.5 points per game in the past two without him. Tatum and company have been pretty solid on both ends of the court.
The Lakers have been a mess all season and are battling injuries. AD and LeBron are on the injury report but are expected to play. The Celtics have been doing their best, despite their loss to Utah, and they like them in this matchup, too. I like that the Celtics get the points here with or without Brown.
Over / Under Selection: Under 220.5
My bet here will take into account the availability of Brown, LeBron and AD. That being said, I expect this to be less than the 220.5 total. The Lakers offense has been pretty disjointed and the Celtics have been very good on defense lately. If both teams are healthy, this total may change before the game, but it still seems high to me.
Object: Marcus Smart over 11.5 points
Smart is averaging 11.3 PPG this season. Even if Brown plays, I think Ime Udoka will limit her minutes. That opens up more scoring opportunities for Smart. He had 22 against Lak in his last outing and I expect a similar game from him here.
DFS Value Reproductions
(Prices based on the main board at 7:30 pm)
PG / SG Dennis Schroeder, Celtics (DF: $ 5,200 | DK: $ 6,400)
SF / SG Dorian Finney-Smith, Mavericks (FD: $ 5,500 | DK: $ 4,300)
SG / SF DeAndre ‘Bembry, Nets (DF: $ 4,500 | DK: $ 4,300)
C / PF LaMarcus Aldridge, Networks (DF: $ 5,600 | DK: $ 5,700)
C Jakob Poeltl, Spurs (DF: $ 6,300 | DK: $ 5,900)
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.