It’s a loaded Wednesday NBA slate with options galore for bettors.
However, one Action Network PRO system suggests there are edges in three specific contests.
This system — the “fade tanking teams” theory — has a 57 percent historical win rate and 12 percent return on investment overall.
Essentially, this betting trend looks at home underdogs with win percentages between 0 and 39 percent facing teams with win percentages between 48 and 69 percent, the latter of which would presumably be the more motivated side later in the season.
Here are the three contests impacted by this system on tonight’s NBA card.
Game 1 – Toronto Raptors (-2) at San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs arrive at this contest 12th in the Western Conference, two-and-a-half games out of a spot in the NBA playoffs play-in tournament. Meanwhile, the Raptors sit seventh in the Eastern Conference, three-and-a-half games back from the Cavaliers for sixth.
However, the recent results for both teams suggest opposing motivations. The Spurs are 10-14 in their last 24 games while the Raptors are 9-7 since the calendar turned to February.
The one concern worth noting here is that the Raptors have dropped three straight games, including two against Eastern Conference cellar-dwellers Pistons and Magic. But, the Spurs have simultaneously dropped six straight against current top 10 Eastern Conference squads.
For those reasons, this system likes the Raptors to cover a short spread as road favorites.
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Game 2 – Denver Nuggets (-6) at Sacramento Kings
While the Nuggets feel safe from having to participate in the play-in tournament — they sit two-and-a-half games clear of seventh place — they have a real chance to improve their seeding.
Denver is only one-and-a-half games back of the Utah Jazz for fourth place in the West, while Sacramento sits 13th in the West, two-and-a-half games back of the final play-in spot.
But, the Kings have lost two straight, have only three wins in the last 10, and are 1-6 in their past seven against the current top 10 in the West. On the flip-side, Denver has won three of its last four against the current bottom-three in the West.
With those stats in mind, our system likes the Nuggets to cover.
Game 3 – Chicago Bulls (-5.5) at Detroit Pistons
Even though the Pistons enter this contest on a three-game winning streak, their record beforehand was less-than-stellar.
Prior to those three victories, Detroit was 5-15 in games played since January 18th and finds itself nowhere close to a playoff position (it’s 12 games back of 11th place).
On the flip-side, the Bulls sit in fourth-place in the conference, only a half-game clear of the Celtics for the final home-court advantage spot in the opening playoff round. Further, even though the Bulls have lost five straight, four of those losses came against teams currently third or better in their respective conference.
Plus, in addition to this system liking the Bulls, bettors have the added advantage that Chicago has won 10 straight games against Detroit.
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism