Selection Sunday is finally here.
And with that, there’s a group of NCAA Tournament bubble teams sweating big-time leading up to the selection show at 6 pm ET. on CBS.
While conference tournaments helped some bubble teams bolster their résumés with Quadrant 1 wins, other teams with borderline credentials weren’t as fortunate.
Now, they wait.
The NCAA selection committee will dissect each team’s entire body of work from November up until now, with the difference between a No. 11 at-large seed in the NCAAs and a consolation NIT bid all too close.
Here’s a look at the 10 teams feeling the most anxiety on Selection Sunday (and where they land in USA TODAY Sports’ bracketology).
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notre-dame
The Fighting Irish (22-10, 15-5 ACC) can credit Virginia Tech’s rise for much of its fall after getting bounced by the eventual ACC tournament champion Hokies in the quarterfinals. Still, Notre Dame has a profile that’s worthy of inclusion – even if it’s bound to be close. One thing to like on this resume is a Quadrant 1 win over Kentucky and the overall win total. But there are just two Quad 1 wins overall and a mediocre NET score in the 50s. ► Last four in.
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Texas A&M
The Aggies (23-11, 9-9 SEC) came out of nowhere to shrink the bubble and shake up the at-large bid equation with their showing in the SEC tournament – where they’ve ousted Auburn and Arkansas on their way to the titlegame. Texas A&M has won seven consecutive games, which is helping to offset an eight-game losing streak in January and February that seemingly had doomed its season. Coach Buzz Williams has a group with a résumé worthy of dancing, sporting four impressive Quadrant 1 wins and a NET score in the 50s. ► Last four in.
rutgers
The Scarlet Knights (18-13, 12-8 Big Ten) have an atrocious NET score in the 70s and one of the worst non-conference strength of schedules in the entire country – ranking 327th. What will likely perplex the selection committee, though, are six Quadrant 1 victories. That’s more than any bubble team in the last decade. If coach Steve Pikiell’s team gets in, it’ll be because the committee valued quality wins over its own system. ► Last four in.
Michigan
The Wolverines (17-14, 11-9 Big Ten) possess an excellent NET score in the 30s to go along with no bad losses and a top-five strength of schedule. So what’s not to like? The fact that Michigan only has 17 wins plays a factor, including just three Quadrant 2 victories. The Wolverines lost a Big Ten tournament opener vs. Indiana in a game that would’ve solidified an at-large bid had they won. ► Last four in.
Xavier
The Musketeers (18-13, 8-11 Big East) can take solace in knowing the selection committee doesn’t look at recent losing streaks but instead examines the entire résumé. Relatively safe seeding-wise a few weeks ago, Xavier lost six of his last seven to fall to the danger zone on the bubble. There are five Quadrant 1 wins on Xavier’s profile, no bad losses, a top-10 strength of schedule and NET in the 40s – all positive credentials. The problem has more to do with win total. All the Musketeers needed one more W to avoid sweating. ► First four out.
SMU
The Mustangs (23-8, 13-4 AAC) beat Memphis twice in the regular season but likely needed to beat the Tigers a third time in the American Athletic tournament to feel secure with an at-large bid. They didn’t and bowed out in the AAC semis – meaning this could go down to the wire for coach Tim Jankovich’s squad. SMU has a lot to like on its profile, starting with a signature win over Houston and a NET score in the 40s. But just two Quadrant 1 wins, a Quadrant 4 loss and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 200s work against SMU’s case. ► First four out.
Dayton
The Flyers (23-10, 14-4 Atlantic 10) needed to win in the A-10 semifinals vs. Richmond to secure an at-large bid but came up short, and that could be the difference-maker in this team’s omission. Dayton has three Quadrant 1 victories that essentially get washed out by three Quadrant 4 losses. Then all the rest of the team’s credentials are pedestrian outside of a November win over Kansas that will definitely get the committee’s attention. ► First four out.
BYU
The Cougars (22-10, 9-6 West Coast Conference) have been sweating worse than just about any bubble team, having watched other bubble teams leapfrog them after they bowed out of the WCC tournament a week ago. BYU has four Quadrant 1 wins, which speaks to the strength of the WCC this season, but there’s one résumé-staining Quadrant 4 loss on the profile and a so-so NET score in the 50s. ► First four out.
Oklahoma
The Sooners (18-15, 7-11 Big 12) played their way into contention by upsetting Baylor in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals. But coach Porter Moser’s group will be assessed on its wins and losses all season, not just the home stretch. And Oklahoma’s January – where it lost seven games, including four in a row – will be hard to erase. A non-conference strength of schedule in the 200s also doesn’t do any favors. ► Next four out.
Wake Forest
At first glance the credentials for the Demon Deacons (23-9, 13-7 ACC) look solid. But upon closer inspection, Wake Forest only has one Quadrant 1 victory and sports one of the worst non-conference strength of schedules in the country – ranking 345th. Those are numbers the selection committee won’t be able to ignore. Wake Forest’s loss to Boston College in the ACC tournament quarterfinals likely cost this group its at-large bid. ► Next four out.
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NCAA Tournament language explainer:
- NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
- Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral site games vs. 1-50 NET; away games vs. 1-75 NET
- Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral site games vs. 51-100 NET; away games vs. 76-135 NET
- Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral site games vs. 101-200 NET; away games vs. 136-240 NET
- Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral site games vs. 201-plus NET; away games vs. 241-plus NET
note: Most statistical data is used from warrennolan.com. the NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.
About our college basketball reporter: Scott Gleeson has covered men’s college basketball for USA TODAY since 2012, contributing to bracketology and running Bubble Tracker before tackling everything March Madness following Selection Sunday. He correctly forecasted Virginia would win the national championship in 2019 before the season began and also picked Loyola-Chicago as a Cinderella mid-major in 2018. Follow him on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
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George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism