Some weeks of the NFL season are rare. Bettors learned it the hard way in week 8 of the 2021 season.
Odds are, few players anticipated that the Jets and Mike White would cover a 10.5-point margin against the Bengals. Even fewer expected them to actually win.
The same can be said for the Saints, who upset the Buccaneers at home despite losing Jameis Winston to a torn ACL. Bettors who bet live on that after seeing Trevor Siemian enter the field may not have been happy with that result.
And of course, what about those who bet the Cardinals or Cardinals money line (-3.5) before Davante Adams was called out? AJ Green had a chance to win the game for Arizona, but inexplicably stopped in the middle of his route. That allowed Rasul Douglas to take an interception that sealed the game with seconds left in a Packers victory.
Yes, NFL Week 8 was certainly weird; but hey, that will happen during the NFL season. It is important not to overreact to such highly contested games. You still have to look at a team’s full résumé before deciding to roll with them or fade them, especially when the midpoint of the season hits.
The Week 9 slate is one of the most balanced bettors have seen in weeks. There are only two games that opened as double-digit spreads compared to four in each of the previous two weeks. That makes it easier for players to find some line value as they don’t need multiple scores in so many games.
Injuries also play a key role in some of these games. We’re still waiting to see if Kyler Murray adjusts to the Cardinals after sustaining an ankle injury last Thursday. We’re also getting a first look at the Titans without Derrick Henry available against a formidable Rams defense. So while spreads in those games can normally be skewed, it’s due to those injuries.
Knowing all the latest injury news and trends will continue to be critical for punters. That’s especially true during the bye week season, when some teams will be better rested than others.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News picks directly and against the Week 9 spread.
NFL WEEK 9 PICKUPS: Against the Spread | Straight up
NFL Odds for Week 9
Below are the latest NFL odds for Week 9, including point spreads, money lines, and over-under totals for each game, based on FanDuel sports betting.
Last update: Sunday, November 7.
NFL Week 9 Point Difference
|New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts||IND -10.5|
|Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins||MIA -5.5|
|Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys||FROM -9.5|
|Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens||-6 BALL|
|New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers||NE -3.5|
|Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars||BUF -14.5|
|Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -2.5|
|Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints||NO 6|
|The Las Vegas Raiders at the New York Giants||LV -3.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles||LAC -1.5|
|Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs||KC -7|
|Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers||SF -2.5|
|Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -7|
|Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers||PIT -6|
NFL Money Lines Week 9
|New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts||IND -560|
|Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins||MIA -245|
|Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys||FROM -460|
|Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens||BALL -260|
|New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers||NE -196|
|Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars||BUF -1000|
|Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -130|
|Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints||NO -270|
|The Las Vegas Raiders at the New York Giants||LV -174|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles||LAC -124|
|Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs||KC -335|
|Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers||SF -136|
|Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -330|
|Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers||PIT -270|
NFL over-under week 9
|New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts||46.5|
|Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins||46|
|Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys||48.5|
|Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens||50.5|
|New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers||41|
|Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars||48.5|
|Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals||47|
|Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints||41.5|
|The Las Vegas Raiders at the New York Giants||46.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles||49.5|
|Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs||48|
|Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers||45.5|
|Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams||53.5|
|Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers||39.5|
NFL WEEK 9 PICKUPS: Against the Spread | Straight up
The best NFL bets for week 9
Rams (-7.5) vs. Titans
A margin of 7.5 points is a ugly number, but the Rams should have a chance to win this grand prize because of Derrick Henry’s injury, which seems to be very important to the Titans. After all, he had accounted for nearly 80 percent of Tennessee’s rushing yards and outscored all other Titans running backs 219-11 before suffering a broken foot.
But how much impact will it have? It’s hard to know exactly, considering he’s only lost one game since he became a full-time starter in 2019. That said, if you look at the Titans’ performance when Henry hasn’t been effective, it paints a grim picture for Tennessee.
Since 2019, the Titans have gone 4-8 in games in which Henry does not rush at least 80 yards. That includes the 38-28 loss they suffered against the Saints in 2019 when Henry was left out with injury.
It would be one thing to trust the Titans if they had a capable replacement for Henry, but their backfield is changing. Officer Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson, 36, appear to be the leaders of the renewed backfield, but both pale in comparison to Henry, who is the best running back in the NFL when healthy.
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention they’re taking on a Rams defense that ranks 11th against the run this year (103.4 yards allowed per game)? and Did you just add three-time All-Pro Von Miller to your defense? The Rams should have a good chance of ripping off the Titans’ offense.
Remember what happened the last time a good NFC West team did that to the Titans? Henry had a season low of 58 rushing yards and the Titans were crushed 38-13 in Week 1 against the Cardinals.
Ryan Tannehill can be asked to do too much in front of the Rams again. He has proven the skeptics wrong before, but I’m certainly not willing to trust him without Henry at his disposal.
Texans (+6.5) at Dolphins
I know I know The Texans have been absolutely terrible this year since they demolished Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence in their debuts with the Jaguars. Houston has been outscored 220-82 during its seven-game losing streak since then, and there’s nothing worse than betting on a bad team to cover the difference.
But ask yourself this: are the Texans really that much worse than the Dolphins? If you asked someone this question a couple of months ago, they would probably look at you like you’re crazy. That said, the Dolphins haven’t lived up to expectations this entire season and frankly, they’re lucky not to be winless.
The Dolphins, like the Texans, have also lost seven straight games since the Week 1 win. However, the Dolphins’ win was of a cheaper variety, as the Patriots and Damien Harris dropped a ball at the field goal range to seal a 17-16 victory for the Dolphins. Miami was right to make the play, but they were very close to losing, much closer than the Texans to losing to the Jaguars.
Despite their near winless record, the Dolphins have hardly been big favorites, or favorites at all, in this year’s games. But they are favored by more than one touchdown in this one. It just doesn’t make sense, given they lost to the two teams on their schedule most similar to the Texans, the Jaguars and the Falcons.
It’s also worth mentioning that Tyrod Taylor could return from IR this week for the Texans. He played very well in the first game and a half of the season for the Texans and kept them competitive against the Jaguars and Browns. If he plays, he will give the Texans a chance to beat the Dolphins, as their offense has been much better with Taylor at the helm.
|Texan offensive||Points per quarter|
|With Tyrod Taylor||8.5|
|Without Tyrod Taylor||2.6|
There is simply no reason to bet on a bad team like the Dolphins as more than a TD favorite. Maybe Tua Tagovailoa has a great game, but even if he does, the Dolphins’ porous defense will allow Taylor to stay close, just as Miami allowed Matt Ryan and the Falcons to do so a couple of weeks ago.
Packers (+7.5) at Chiefs
I think it’s fair to say that the Chiefs should fade away until they can show some kind of punch and energy on both sides of the ball. For the entire first half of the season, they’ve just been … out. They haven’t played well on defense, while Patrick Mahomes and the offense are apparently taking a step back each week.
MORE: Patrick Mahomes explains the troubles plaguing the Chiefs in 2021
The Chiefs should be able to get out of their mood soon, but do you really want to trust them to do that against the Packers? I know Jordan Love is starting for the Packers, but should the Chiefs really be favored by more than one TD over a Packers team that is pretty good?
This seems like a bad place for the Chiefs. They’re coming off a short break and they’re playing one of the best teams in the NFL. And we’ve seen good NFL teams succeed with their backup quarterbacks this year. Just look at what Cooper Rush and Trevor Siemian were able to do for the Cowboys and Saints last week.
Plus, Matt LaFleur has the Packers playing really well right now. Of course, there was nothing too impressive about their win over the Cardinals – they jumped in and flipped most of the game and were lucky that AJ Green froze like a disconnected Madden controller on the last play of Arizona’s game, but he scored. seven consecutive victories for the Packers and another victory against the spread for the team.
LaFleur has been elite against the spread since taking over as the Packers’ head coach. They are 29-15 ATS under your supervision, which is good for a coverage rate of 65.9 percent. That’s the best mark in the NFL during that time. They are also 7-3 as underdogs under LaFleur.
By contrast, the Chiefs are just 23-22-1 ATS in that same span and have posted a 10-17 ATS mark since 2020. That 37 percentage of coverage is the second worst in the NFL only behind the Jets.
One of these days, the Chiefs are going to make those who fade them look dumb. Mahomes and the offense will come out of their funk, block well, avoid turnovers and penalties en route to a dominant victory. But this doesn’t seem like the time for that. His defense will allow Love to move the ball enough to cover a touchdown plus margin.
And who’s to say that Love can’t do what Rush and Mike White did last week? After all, he was a first-round pick, so the talent is there. It’s just a question of whether you are ready to succeed professionally or not.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.