Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season was strange for punters. The first two games of the week, a “Thursday Night Football” clash and the Jaguars-Dolphins London game, were covered by the underdogs. Then came Sunday’s main scoreboard, in which the favorites posted an 8-2 record against the spread. Finally, the last two independent games of the week on “Sunday Night Football” and “Monday Night Football” saw the underdog again.
So the favorites put up an 8-6 ATS record overall, but punters who were only in action for Sunday’s main roster saw the favorites dominate.
Either way, heading into Week 7, bettors have a lot of recent data and trends to rely on. The sample size over time is now large enough to roughly know what they are (except for the new-looking Raiders), so players will be able to identify lopsided extensions to take advantage of.
IYER: Why the Bills are the NFL’s Top Super Bowl contenders
This week, there are no bombs hitting the NFL, as was the case last week when Jon Gruden resigned. However, there are six teams off this week, which means there will only be 13 games on the NFL schedule this week. It also means that the best team in the league against the spread, the Cowboys (6-0 ATS) will be out of action. The Bills (4-2 ATS) and Chargers (4-2 ATS) will also not be available.
That could make this week a bit more difficult from that perspective; There just aren’t that many teams that have dominated against the spread playing this week.
Also, there are at least three spreads that will be double digits and one, and the Cardinals and Rams will likely be favored by two TDs or more. Betting on those massive lines is tricky, as a poor rotation or garbage time touchdown can result in failed coverage.
Knowing the latest injury news and trends will continue to be critical for bettors. That’s especially true during the bye week season, when some teams will be better rested than others.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News picks directly and against the week 7 spread.
NFL WEEK 7 SELECTIONS: Against the Spread | Straight up
NFL Odds for Week 7
Below are the latest Week 7 NFL odds, including point spreads, money lines, and over-under totals for each game, based on FanDuel sports betting.
Last update: Tuesday, October 19
NFL Week 7 Point Difference
|Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns||CLE -3|
|Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens||-6 BALL|
|Carolina Panthers at New York Giants||CAR -3|
|Washington Soccer Team at Green Bay Packers||GB -9.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans||KC -5.5|
|Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins||ATL -2.5|
|New York Jets at New England Patriots||NE -7|
|Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -15.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders||LV -3|
|Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||TB -12.5|
|Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals||ARI -17.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers||SF -3.5|
|New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks||NO -5.5|
NFL Money Lines Week 7
|Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns||CLE -174|
|Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens||BALL -260|
|Carolina Panthers at New York Giants||CAR -148|
|Washington Soccer Team at Green Bay Packers||GB -430|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans||KC -260|
|Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins||ATL -142|
|New York Jets at New England Patriots||NE -330|
|Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -1100|
|Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders||LV -178|
|Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||TB -650|
|Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals||ARI -1600|
|Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers||SF -196|
|New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks||NO -230|
NFL over-under week 7
|Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns||42.5|
|Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens||47.5|
|Carolina Panthers at New York Giants||43.5|
|Washington Soccer Team at Green Bay Packers||48.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans||56.5|
|Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins||47.5|
|New York Jets at New England Patriots||42.5|
|Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams||50.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders||49|
|Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||47.5|
|Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals||47.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers||44.5|
|New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks||43.5|
NFL POWER RANKS: Raiders, Steelers rise after Week 6 wins
The best NFL bets for week 7
Broncos (+3) at Browns
Last week, making the Browns disappear as three-point favorites against the Cardinals worked very well. We will continue to fade them out here in what appears to be an immensely difficult place.
The Browns are one of the hardest hit teams in football right now. They had 20 players listed in their original injury report Monday. On Tuesday, it was revealed that Kareem Hunt (calf) and Nick Chubb (calf) would miss the game, eliminating the team’s top two running backs. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was also placed on IR, while Baker Mayfield revealed that the injured labrum on his pitching shoulder was “completely ripped.”
That will make it difficult for Mayfield to play Thursday, and if he does, he will obviously not be completely healthy. To make matters worse is that his offensive line is also hit. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, his starting tackles, missed last week’s game and the team’s swing tackle Chris Hubbard is on IR.
As such, Mayfield was under a lot of pressure. And when you’re under pressure, you tend to have problems. He is 3-13 straight in games in which he has been sacked four or more times during his career. That includes the five-sack game he had last week against the Cardinals.
Denver averages 2.3 sacks per game, tied for 10th in the NFL. If they can push a little more than normal, they should have a good chance to shake Mayfield or Case Keenum and make it harder for the Browns’ offense to move the ball. This is a good place to fade to Cleveland. They’re just too beaten up to be favored in this one.
WEEK 7 STANDARD RATINGS:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker
Bengals (+6) at Ravens
I know I know The Ravens simply crushed Justin Herbert and the Chargers for a 34-6 road win. Shouldn’t they be able to make life equally difficult for the Bengals? Not necessarily.
Cincinnati matches particularly well against Baltimore in one area. The Bengals are excellent against the blitz. Joe Burrow has completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 493 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception when facing pressure this season. His passer rating in those scenarios is 136.8.
The Ravens have been a bombing team under Don “Wink” Martindale. They’ve bombed 32 percent of the time this season, which is good for the fifth-most number in the NFL. That has helped them in previous matchups, including their Week 6 win over the Chargers and Justin Herbert, who has a 96.1 passer rating when facing the blitz. But against Burrow, things could be a bit more difficult for the Ravens.
It’s also worth noting that the Bengals have kept almost all of their games close this season. Four of their games have been decided by exactly three points, while the other two were wins of 14 over the Steelers and 23 over the Lions. Therefore, they would have covered a difference of six points in the previous six games. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed in this matchup, but it’s a good sign anyway.
Additionally, the Bengals have lost all five games Lamar Jackson started against them during his career. That may seem like an advantage for the Ravens, but it could also mean the Bengals will come in motivated to beat Jackson.
We saw that happen with the Ravens earlier in the year when they covered in Week 2 against a Chiefs team that Jackson and John Harbaugh had struggled to beat. They covered a difference of 3.5 points and won directly. Maybe Burrow and Zac Taylor bring the same kind of energy to this one and cause a win or cover.
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Falcons (-2.5) at Dolphins
This seems like a terrible place for the Dolphins. They just lost heartbreakingly in a game against the Jaguars in London. Now, they have to return to Miami to face the Falcons, a team that has not been very good this year but is coming off a bye week and will be well rested for this game.
This is a huge break advantage for the Falcons, and they have done well in the past. They are 4-2 against the spread when they come off a bye since 2016. They are 10-5 ATS when they trade any kind of break advantage in the same span. That 66.7 percent coverage percentage is the third-best in the NFL since 2016.
Of course, that came under the leadership of Dan Quinn. The Falcons are now in charge of Arthur Smith, so he may handle things a little differently. Still, it looks like the Falcons should have the upper hand here, especially with the return of Calvin Ridley (personal).
With that said, it’s worth noting that the Dolphins were originally slated to be favorites by 2.5 points in this one, so the line has moved a whopping five points. It’s not always attractive to bet on massive line moves that aren’t caused by injury, but in this case, this seems like the right move, as long as the Falcons are still favored by less than three points.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.