Nothing changes the public’s perception of an NFL game as much as quarterback problems. Favorites can quickly become favorites in the betting markets, and surprises can become the norm in NFL pick ’em groups. You can see that effect in a couple of the five games featured below, and the experts at TeamRankings offer tips and advice on whether you should follow the crowd with your NFL Week 9 picks.
Picks that are being underestimated by the public can generate weekly earnings that make the difference between winning and losing an NFL group in a season, while smart picks can drive success in weekly groups. TeamRankings is the only site that offers personalized picks that maximize your advantage in the NFL pick pools. Take a look at TeamRankings’ Soccer Pick ’em Picks, NFL Survivors’ Picks, and NFL Betting Picks. For a limited time, you can also get a three-day free trial of all their premium soccer teams.
NFL Week 9 Pick ’em Pool Picks – Tips, Strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 9 Value Picks
This article was written on Wednesday, but if the picks’ odds of winning and popularity numbers hold up, the teams below provide attractive trade-offs between risk and reward to differentiate their Week 9 picks from their opponents in the pool.
It is important to note that we are not necessarily saying that you should do everybody of these selections. In particular, some pesky picks can be unnecessarily risky for your group, even if they’re technically underrated. You should take a general level of risk with your picks that is appropriate for your group size and rules. All season pools often require more conservative selections than single week pools. If you want our game-by-game selection recommendations for everyone your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks Product.
Note: Odds of Win data and Estimated Popularity of the selections below may change between post time and start time. If you want the latest numbers, our product it is updated several times a day.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Point difference: package
Choose popularity: fifteen%
Category: Unpopular release
The 49ers face the Cardinals for the second time this year. Arizona won the first meeting by seven points, but many key high-leverage plays went well, including recovering three of their four fumbles and stopping the 49ers on four different fourth-down plays. Also, Trey Lance, not Jimmy Garoppolo, was San Francisco’s quarterback in that game.
Just as important, Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray is battling an ankle injury he sustained late in last week’s game. Murray’s mobility is a big part of his game, and the point margin on this one is already down 2.5 points, making him a pitch. With the Cardinals drafted as a huge favorite, the value here is in San Francisco.
WEEK 9 DFS LINEUP: FanDuel | DraftKings | Yahoo!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers
Point difference: -1.0
Choose popularity: 26%
Category: Unpopular release
Turnovers continue to plague the Chiefs, who had two more in their narrow win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Packers won their seventh straight game and defeated Arizona in prime time last Thursday.
It’s no wonder the public prefers the 7-1 Packers here over the disappointing Chiefs, but Kansas City has now become the betting favorite in this one, and the line is likely to move further towards Kansas City with Aaron Rodgers. (COVID) out.
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Point difference: +2.5
Choose popularity: 13%
Category: Value Gamble in weekly contests
The Giants are a very unpopular pick to upset the Raiders, but the point difference in this one is a field goal. Our models like the Giants even more, which gives them a nearly 50 percent chance of winning this game.
In most weekly contests or larger one-season contests, they offer excellent value and diversity from the crowd.
WEEK 9 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Point difference: +1
Choose popularity: twenty%
Category: Unpopular release
The Eagles are another slight underdog from the NFC East facing an AFC West team. The Eagles crushed the Lions last week, while the Chargers have cooled off with back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Patriots.
With about four out of five innings with the Chargers, the value is in Philadelphia.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Point difference: -10.5
Choose popularity: 95%
Category: Great favorite at a reasonable price
It’s all relative, and this week, sticking with the Colts with a lot of confidence is a solid play. In Week 9, 10 different favorites have a pick popularity of 85 percent or more. More than half of those other popular picks are favored by less than one touchdown.
There are better value plays for surprises this week. Staying with the Colts to rally against Mike White and the Jets in a short week is the play.
MORE TEAM RANKINGS: Week 9 Survivor Group Tip
Get all our NFL picks from week 9
Football Pick ’em Picks by TeamRankings is the only product that gives you the picks, tools and analysis you need to maximize your advantage in the NFL pick pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance of winning your trust, point spread, or trust group.
From a strategy perspective, game theory is a critical aspect of winning pick ’em groups. In short, to win a group of pick ’em, you have to score points that your opponents lose. That means you need to identify unpopular picks that are worth a calculated bet and avoid trendy picks that aren’t worth the risk. Our product does all those calculations for you, 71 percent of our subscribers report having won a prize in soccer team competitions.
If you want to know more about the strategy of the soccer team, you can also consult our free articles on strategy to win soccer pick ’em pools.
Good luck in your pools this week!
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.