It’s the Year, and and the final week of the 2020 NFL regular season. With so many playoff implications surrounding this weekend’s games, there seem to be plenty of advantages to attack. If your Year, and resolution is to cash in on sports betting, this might be a good time to start.
Each week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving together a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a simple sneak peek at everything BetQL offers, whether you prefer to bet against the spread, money lines, or over / under. Visit us now to reveal our full betting predictions for every Week 17 game, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL best bet model.
WEEK 17 RANKINGS FANTASY PPR:
Field marshal | Running | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker
All data presented correspond to Friday morning. You can track all the movement of the NFL line in BetQL Line Motion Control Board.
NFL Week 17 Betting Picks – Broadcast Pick of the Week
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
BetQL’s Sharp Bettor Report shows 64 percent of the money so far this week is in the -3.5 Chargers in Kansas City. I’m here to tell you that if you want to make money betting against the spread in this game, your best course of action is to go 36 percent.
Let’s face it here: A bet on a loser based solely on his opponent having already secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC and decided to let his stars rest is a silly bet. Savvy bettors acknowledge that Chiefs coach Andy Reid has never “mailed” a game in his life, let alone a game against a division rival at home and a week before a break.
Reid is 63-41 against conference opponents while coaching Kansas City. Veteran reserve and former Dolphin / Jaguar Chad Henne will start this week. It’s his first start as a starter since September 2014. That’s not a very promising factor, but Kansas City’s overall depth of talent should be reassuring enough. There are plenty of sleepers who can make plays this Sunday, like running back Darwin Thompson and wide receivers Become Hardman and Marcus Robinson.
Also, do you really believe in Rookie of the Year candidate Justin Herbert as much as the surrounding narrative tells you to believe him? LA has won three games in a row, yes, but all three wins were by a field goal over teams that weren’t in the playoffs. The Chargers lost the previous game against a good New England defense with a horrendous offense by an unfathomable score of 45-0. None of the six teams that have lost to the Chargers in 2020 have had a winning record, and five of the six teams are currently in the basement of their respective division. Opponents’ combined wins and losses total that LA has defeated: 23-66.
Kansas City enters this home game at 14-1 and is as complete a team as the NFL has seen this century. Get away from the crowd in this one and play as the defending Super Bowl champs. Reid won’t let the wheels rust just because he decided to give his driver a break.
NFL Week 17 Betting Picks – Money Line Pick of the Week
Buffalo Bills -165 vs. Miami Dolphins
All of my friends in New England are probably tired of my plays for Buffalo by now, but how can anyone deny how wonderful these Bills have been this season? Quarterback Josh Allen continues to improve, having surpassed a quartet of nationally televised games and outscoring his opponents 146-67 in the process.
Allen has reached personal records in almost every statistical category this season, and his entire team has benefited from his success. Stefon Diggs leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and has scored eight TDs and 75.9 percent of his goals, a career high. Cole Beasley has had a year of his own in his career, with 82 receptions, 967 yards and four touchdowns. Eight different bills have multiple TD shots, and six different players have three or more receiving scores.
But Brian Daboll’s offense isn’t the only scary aspect of this Buffalo team. It is a complete team without identity complexes or training problems. And he knows how to win the games he’s supposed to win. Head coach Sean McDermott is a 23-5 favorite while coaching Buffalo. Leslie Frazier’s defense has kept four of the Bills’ past five opponents below 20 points and allowed an average of 226.6 total yards in the past three weeks. This could be the most popular team in soccer and it could be led by a future MVP.
Miami has been a great story this season and it could sneak into the playoffs, but I don’t see the Dolphins go to Buffalo and beat this focused, disciplined, and downright elite squad. The Bills are trying to solidify second place in the conference and have shown little sign of slowing down to anyone. Even Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin seems to know that Buffalo will win this game, otherwise never in a million years would he field Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and concede both spots. Bet the farm, or at least the silo, on the Bills.
WEEK 17 NFL DFS: Best Stacks | Best values | Lineup Creator
NFL Week 17 Betting Picks – Week Top / Bottom Pick
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: OVER 50
Sometimes bettors suffer from a topicality bias, which appears to be the case for this total. Tampa Bay limited Detroit to seven points last week, while Atlanta managed just 14 points against the Chiefs. So this game should be well below the 50 point mark, right?
Incorrect. Dive deeper into the area scores last week and you’ll notice the Lions lost QB Matthew Stafford to an ankle injury on their opening possession. They were already nervous and outgunned and only managed 12 first downs in total behind the clumsy efforts of Chase Daniel and David Blough. They were sacked four times, lost two turnovers and committed 11 penalties for 117 yards.
Meanwhile, Atlanta struggled in Week 16 against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in Kansas City, where the Chiefs have allowed just 235.3 passing yards per game this season. Matt Ryan and the Falcons kept up with MVP candidate PatrHomesomes and the Chiefs, both on first downs (each team had 23) and net passing yards (KC outscored ATL 278-277). The Dirty Birds just failed to capitalize on the red zone.
This may not be a sentiment shared by everyone in the sports journalism field, but Kansas City has a better defense than Tampa Bay. Bucs hit lower offenses and get exposed for decent offenses. Atlanta just scored 27 points against Todd Bowles’ unit two weeks ago, and suddenly Las Vegas thinks the Weekconteststest will be a low-scoring affair.
After their 47-point performance in Detroit last week, Tom Brady and the Bucs will air the ball early and often, trying to maintain momentum heading into the playoffs. Tampa has averaged 33 points in its last six games, and while Atlanta’s seven forwards have improved, its secondary remains shaky. This game could reach 50 points by the end of the third quarter.
Everyone at BetQL and I wish you a Happy Year, and and we hope you find good health, happiness and betting success in 2021! Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bets, crisp data and much more for each contest in Week 17! You can find everything Updated NFL lines, spreads and odds on BetQL!
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.