First, congratulations to all the fantasy football coaches who won league championships. As those fantasy managers look to reinvest their winnings in sports betting, watch out for NFL Week 18 betting.
There are currently nine teams favored by at least seven points.
Why am I heeding this warning? The answer is in the numbers. The underdog continue to have an advantage in the overall betting outcome at 130-120-2 (52.0%).
As we have underlined here in Betting YES For months, if you’re assuming that blindly backing hometown NFL teams is a profitable endeavor this season, chances are your funds are in the red. Home teams are 120-133-3 (47.5%), while home favorites are 70-81-3 (46.4%) against the equally disappointing Spread (ATS).
Let’s take a look at the lines of Week 18 in motion.
Check out the NFL lines for week 18 on SI Sportsbook
NFL Week 18 Games ‘On The Move’
Jeff Dean / AP
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Money line: Kansas City (-500) | Denver (+375)
Smeared: KC -10 (-110) | DEN +10 (-110)
Total: 44.5– More: (-110) | Sub: 44.5 (-110)
Game information: January 8, 2022 | 4:30 pm ET | ABC
This Saturday game opened in early stakes with an anticipation line from Kansas City as a 3-point road favorite, but has since adjusted to a Chiefs opening line as a 10-point favorite on SI Sportsbook. Kansas City, coming off a road loss to the Bengals, will be looking to secure one of the top seeds in the AFC.
The Chiefs, who are 8-1 SU in their last nine games, have also posted an impressive 6-3 ATS mark in that stretch. Denver, which has lost three straight games, became a profitable fading for punters during the final two months of the season with a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven games. Kansas City, which is just a coin toss Against the Spread (8-8) this season, is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Broncos. Most recently, in Week 13, the Chiefs beat Denver 22-9 as home favorites by 8.5 points. Kansas City, which has scored more than 31 points in four straight games, will be looking to dominate a Broncos club with offensive challenges that has only scored more than 13 points once in its last five games. The Chiefs will not rest any of their starters in the final week of the regular season, as a win over the Broncos will secure second-place at worst, with the potential to become the No. 1 seed with a defeat of the Titans.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public bets: 73% of the money in Kansas City
Line movement: Kansas City -3 to Kansas City -10
2021 against the propagation record
KC: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-5 ATS, Away: 4-3 ATS)
THE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
2020 against the spread record
KC: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
THE: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Money line: Indianapolis (-1205) | Jacksonville (+750)
Smeared: IND -15.5 (-110) | JAX +15.5 (-110)
Total: 44 – More: (-110) | Sub: 44 (-110)
Game information: Jan 9th February 2022 | 1 pm ET | CBS
Indianapolis will look to bounce back from its loss at home last week to Las Vegas when they head to Jacksonville to take on the worst team in the NFL. The Jaguars, who are just 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS on the season, have burned their sponsors of late by posting a 0-7 ATS mark in their last seven contests.
In early bets, Indianapolis was listed as an 8.5-point road favorite only to see that balloon within 15.5 points. The Colts, who are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games, are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season as double-digit favorites. Pro money has gone into the Colts, who possess the second-best rushing attack in the NFL (152.9 rushing yards per game) led by Jonathan Taylor, to find success against a Jacksonville club that has allowed the second-most points per game. (27.9). The Colts, who failed to be covered as home favorites by 10.5 points in their 23-17 win over the Jaguars in Week 10, have posted an ATS record of 1-8-1 in their last 10 meetings with their AFC rival. South. Despite being upset about the Raiders last week, the Colts can earn a playoff spot with a win over the Jaguars – 59% of the money is in Indianapolis
BY THE NUMBERS
Public bets: 59% of the money in Indianapolis
Line movement: Indianapolis -8.5 to Indianapolis -15.5
2021 against the propagation record
INDIANA: 10-6 ATS (Home: 4-5 ATS, Away: 6-1 ATS)
JAX: 4-12 ATS (Home: 1-6 ATS, Away: 3-6 ATS)
2020 against the spread record
INDIANA: 8-8 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
JAX: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Matt Ludtke / AP
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Money line: Green Bay (-188) | Detroit (+155)
Smeared: GB -4 (-110) | DET +4 (-110)
Total: 44.5 – Over (-110) | Less than 44.5 (-110)
Game information: January 9, 2022 | 1 pm ET | FOX
The Packers, the first 11-point favorites on the road against Detroit on the anticipation lines, have since adjusted to just 4-point favorites on SI Sportsbook.
Green Bay, which owns a 7-2 ATS record away from Lambeau this season, hopes to rest most of its starters against the Lions. The Packers, who own the best ATS record in the NFL at 12-4, have already secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC, a first-round goodbye, as well as the most coveted favorable position of owning the home field advantage in home at all times. Despite Aaron Rodgers’ claim that he is playing, bettors believe Jordan Love will be in center against a Lions pass defense that ranks 30th in points allowed (27.3).
Detroit, despite winning just two games, has posted an extremely profitable 10-6 ATS mark. The condition of injured Lions quarterback Jared Goff will likely have an impact if the Packers remain favorites for Sunday’s start. The veteran signal caller, who suffered a knee injury in Week 15 against Arizona, is questionable to face Green Bay. The Packers won five straight games against their foe NFC North and were covered as home favorites by 11.5 points in the club’s 35-17 victory over Detroit in Week 2.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public bets: 52% of the money in Green Bay
Line movement: Detroit +11 to Detroit +4
2021 against the propagation record
GB: 12-4 ATS (Home: 7-2 ATS, Away: 5-2 ATS)
THE: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-2 ATS, Away: 5-4 ATS)
2020 against the spread record
GB: GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS
THE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Money line: Dallas (-225) | Philadelphia (+188)
Smeared: DAL -5.5 (-110) | PHI +5.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 – More: (-110) | Sub: 42.5 (-110)
Game information: January 8, 2021 | 8:15 pm ET | ABC
This Saturday night game has seen a considerable 2.5 point move from the first advance bets. This game started at minus three, but bettors have made Dallas a near-complete touchdown favorite.
The Eagles, who are 6-1 SU in their last seven games, will face a Cowboys team that is 7-1 ATS on the road this season. Dallas, led by Dak Prescott, has the best scoring offense in the NFL (29.9 points per game), but now it will face a defense from Philadelphia that has only surrendered 14.8 points per game in its last five games.
The Cowboys have beaten the Eagles in six of the last 10 meetings, which also includes a profitable 6-4 ATS mark during that stretch. Both teams have already secured playoff spots, but the overall standings are up for grabs on Sunday. Dallas is not locked in at No. 4, although the betting odds on each of the shocking games on the Week 18 board indicate that it is its most likely location.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public bets: 69% of the money in Dallas
Line movement: Dallas -3 to Dallas -2.5
2021 against the propagation record
FROM: 12-4 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 7-1 ATS)
FI: 8-7-1 ATS (Home: 3-3-1 ATS, Away: 5-4 ATS)
2020 against the spread record
FROM: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
FI: 6-10 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
Frankie taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first DFS program offered at a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is a Senior Analyst at SI Betting and brings a wealth of experience and resources to the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest ideas on Las Vegas gambling and fantasy.
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Check the last lines in SI Sportsbook
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.