We have some fun, if amazing, trends in the NFL heading into Week 6. Good teams with direct winning (SU) records also have winning Against The Spread (ATS) records, but a handful of bad teams with SU losing records. are covering.
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The Cardinals remain the only undefeated team. They are 4-1 ATS, as are the Bills, Cowboys, Packers and Chargers. While the Lions and Jaguars are the only two teams without a win, the Lions are actually 3-2 ATS. Then there’s the next group of underperforming players with just one win for the year: Dolphins, Giants, Jets, Texans and Colts.
Houston and Indianapolis join Detroit as losing SU teams but with ATS winning records. It’s not a surprise, but it’s worth noting: Only one of our analysts picked a team from the “losing group,” with Casey Olson taking all 10 points from the Texans.
As a staff, we got back on track in week 5 after a disastrous week 4. There is something to be said about being aligned with the group.
We noticed different opinions between the teams in Week 4 – there were six matchups with two of our analysts on opposite sides, resulting in only one of us having a winning weekend (Jen Piacenti). Compare that to Week 5, when at least three of us were lined up in four games, resulting in our best weekend yet with four of our five record-winning writers.
For Week 6, three of us are on the Packers and Cowboys scoring and four are on the Bills giving the Titans 5.5. The only game where we seem to be out of alignment is the Browns-Cardinals, as three of us are on the side of Arizona while two of Cleveland.
Cheers for another profitable picks weekend!
Best bets of week 6
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- We believe that transparency is paramount in the world of sports betting, that’s why we trust Sharp range to keep track of all our picks / performance
Jen Piacenti’s best bet: Chiefs -6.5
I picked the Bills last week, and I noticed the Chiefs were having trouble covering the margin. This week, I’m going to lead the Chiefs to -6.5 against the Washington soccer team.
The Chiefs have beaten Washington nine of the last 10 times and they just can’t lose this game. They can’t even let it get close. As terrible as the Chiefs’ defense is, the WFT defense is bad too. Patrick Mahomes and company will set up a clinic.
I’m picking the last team in the AFC West.
Jen’s Season Record: 66%
Casey Olson’s best bet: Panthers +115
The Vikings were the most popular survivor pick last week, escaping group duels with a 54-yard field goal when time expired. They head to Carolina this week, and Kirk Cousins will have a tough test as the Panthers only allow 161 passing yards per game.
Dalvin Cook is not on the injury report, but he is not close to 100%. He may be pulled if things get ugly with Minnesota’s bye week at week 7.
Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out, though Chuba Hubbard has proven to be a skilled running back double, going for 101 yards on 24 carries against the Eagles.
The Panthers at home like a dog against a defeated Vikings squad seems like a great place to me. Here are some trends that support this choice:
- Vikings are 2-13 (last 15) on the road against closing pass defenses allowing less than 5.75 PYPA (passing yards per attempt)
- The Vikings are 0-4 ATS (last 4) after a win.
- Vikings are 0-7 (last 7) as favorites.
- The Panthers are 8-2 (last 10) as a home underdog to an opponent with an upcoming goodbye.
- The loser is 6-1 in his last 7 meetings.
Casey’s Season Record: 58%
Richard Johnson’s best bet: Cowboys -3.5
The ‘Boys are rolling and haven’t managed to score more than 28 points just once this season. The hoodie will have something for Dak & Co. for sure, but they just don’t have enough offensive firepower to stick with Dallas.
Richard’s Season Record: 21%
Bill Enright’s best bet: Steelers / Seahawks OVER 42.5 points
Considering Russell Wilson is not playing the game total looks optically correct. But Geno Smith put in an impressive performance last week against the Rams and, dare I suggest, are the Steelers improving?
The Seattle and Pittsburgh games are 1-4 when hitting the over, but Seattle and its opponents have surpassed 42 points in five games and the Steelers have done so three times. Add in that the Seattle and Pittsburgh defenses allow a combined 47 points per game, five more than their total from their showdown on Sunday night, and I’ll confidently score a betting slip at OVER 42.5.
Bill’s Season Record: 46%
David Scipione’s best bet: Chargers / Ravens UNDER 51 points
I know this showdown screams touchdowns galore, but it has all the makings of a 24-21 cheat game in which bettors are sweating a late TD to score over 51 points total.
Both Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are dynamic quarterbacks with different styles, so hopefully game plans will focus on neutralizing each quarterback’s strength. Herbert is amazing, but he’ll be back down to earth a bit in Week 6. He’ll be on the road against a Ravens team looking to stake their dominance in the AFC with a convincing victory. opponent on the scoreboard.
Expect the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, or to try, causing this game to stop and drop below 51.
*Dave’s first week providing picks
Frank Taddeo’s best bet: Browns -3
Gambling streaks are always scary. The Cardinals (5-0) are the ONLY undefeated team, along with 4-1 ATS. When this line opened in Las Vegas over the summer, the Cardinals were underdog on the road by 4.5 points and now the line only has full demand for field goals.
For all the love this Arizona team gets for its offensive prowess from Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk, making the trip East will be tough against a solid Browns defense. The ‘Dawg Pound’, combined with Cleveland’s dominant running game, will ensure there are no undefeated teams in the NFL after Week 6. Put all three with Cleveland.
Frank’s Season Record: 38%
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More bets:
• Week 6 gambling accessories for players
• ALCS betting preview
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• Picks made up of week 7 of college football
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.