Never bet against Mike White, Cooper Rush, and Trevor Siemian.
That’s your lesson from week 8.
The Bengals, Vikings and Buccaneers learned that the hard way, with all three losing as favorites to those backup quarterbacks.
We’re sorry if your pockets are a little lean on Monday, especially as each of the favorites couldn’t make late stops that could have helped win the game (Paging the Vikings: Ezekiel Elliott can’t get 15 yards on that third dumpster- off).
You live and learn, and in this case we learned that the trio of White, Rush, and Trevor Siemian will never fade.
Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of Week 8 betting.
THE PATRIOTS: AN EXCESSIVE TEAM
The Patriots started the year hitting in each of their first four games, but are now surpassing.
Sunday looked risky, but the Chargers scored with 47 seconds left to provide the 27-24 Patriots final. The plus / minus: 50.5.
I never doubt.
As a bonus, both Damien Harris and Austin Ekeler cashed various bets.
Ekeler had the first touchdown (+600), touchdown anytime (-120), over 56.5 rushing yards (-110), and over 101.5 yards combined (-113).
Harris’s support for a touchdown at any time was +110 odds, and beat his projection of 73.5 (-110).
GOOD TEAMS WIN, GREAT TEAMS COVER
It’s fair to characterize the Bills’ effort against Miami on Sunday as lethargic.
Buffalo, a 14-point home favorite, led just seven into the third quarter and held just a 6-point lead with 9:43 remaining.
It seemed unlikely the Bills would cover all 14 points considering how stagnant the offense had been all day.
But as Han Solo once said, “Never tell me the odds.”
Buffalo kicked a field goal with 3:33 left to make it a 20-11 game, and a late interception led to a game-sealing touchdown by Josh Allen.
Final: 26-11, Buffalo. Insured coverage (we apologize if you made the change).
THE MELVIN GORDON SHOW
Betting on Melvin Gordon provided good payouts on Sunday.
Gordon scored the first and last touchdowns and was the only Bronco skill player to find the end zone.
His first touchdown support was +825 odds, his touchdown support at any time was +150, and his last touchdown support came in at +850 odds.
Not a bad gain for a player who finished with 62 total yards.
THE FANTASY HERO
Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts offered great value as touchdown props at any time, and that was before Calvin Ridley was down.
Patterson had a +675 chance of scoring the first touchdown, and he delivered on bettors as he has on fantasy players all season. Patterson also offered a +100 chance of scoring a touchdown at any time.
Believe in Patterson.
FOLLOW THE ROOKIES
The Bears-49ers game featured some intriguing rookies and they handed out some winning tickets.
Here’s a quick breakdown:
• 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell: TD anytime (+110), over 71.5 rushing yards (-125)
• Bears RB Khalil Herbert: Over 69.5 rushing yards (-118)
• Bears QB Justin Fields: Over 30.5 rushing yards (-125), over 0.5 passing passing yards (-275), over 17.5 completions (-111), over 222.5 passing yards / passing yards (-120)
IN THE KUPP
Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford cannot be stopped.
You might not have liked Kupp’s -163 odds for a touchdown at any time, but you knew he would find his way into the end zone. It also easily beat its projection of 96.5 (-120).
Stafford, meanwhile, hit the over on his passing yards (-125) and passing touchdowns (+100).
You won’t break the bank with these two, but they are pretty reliable week after week.
If you had the Rams posting all 16 points against the Texans on Sunday, the biggest margin on the board, you’d feel good with a 38-0 lead going into the fourth quarter.
You felt great when the margin was 38 to nine minutes from the end.
Then disaster struck.
Houston touchdown to make it 38-7 with 8:10 to go. Quick Rams punt since the substitutes entered. Houston touchdown, 38-14. Uh oh.
Outside kick. Another score from Houston, 38-20.
Just avoid the colon conversion and cover.
Davis Mills converted and is 38-22, which remained the final.
Amazing. A bloody shove.
FAR FROM HOME
Sports betting YES featured an intriguing beefed-up parlay: Colts, 49ers, Browns and Falcons all to win outright, with odds increased from +475 to +550. Every team was favored, and only the 49ers had a road game.
And yet only the road team won.
The Colts offered a masterclass on how to lose a game against the Titans, the Browns are a mess and the Falcons are still the Falcons.
Home Sweet Home? Not that much.
THE SPECIAL ON
Sports betting YES he set the over / under total touchdowns for the Seahawks-Jaguars at 4.5, with an over-under of 44.5.
The Jaguars are not an offensive monster and Geno Smith struggled to complete a pass last Monday against the Saints.
While the under hit quite easily in Seattle’s 31-7 win, the over actually hit on touchdowns total due to a side kick return to score.
Jacksonville finally broke through Seattle’s impenetrable defense with 1:54 remaining for the fourth touchdown of the game that made it 24-7. The side kick landed on Travis Homer’s lap and ran it toward the 31-7 final.
A fifth touchdown with 1:49 remaining on a side kick. That sucks.
The Lions are bad on defense.
DeVonta Smith is good at soccer.
Smith offered solid supports across the board and receiving yards over / under 64.5, which seemed quite achievable. Our Shawn Childs loved Smith this week as a gamer accessory.
His finish line: 1 catch, 15 yards. The Eagles threw just 114 yards while rushing the ball every other play.
Oh, what could have been.
THE UGLY ONE
We will start with cumulative effort.
• Buccaneers: 4-point favorites … lose to Siemian (replacing the injured Jameis Winston in the first quarter).
• Bengals: favorites by 10.5 points … lose to White (no, not Florida basketball coach. The other one).
• Vikings: 4.5 point favorites … lose to Rush.
To make matters worse:
• Tampa Bay led 27-26 with 5:52 remaining.
• Cincinnati led 31-20 with 7:36 remaining.
• Minnesota led 16-13 with 2:45 to play.
These teams must be released on double-secret probation.
NEVER TRUST THE FLARES
You cheated on us, Cincinnati.
A beating from the Ravens made us believe. The humble Jets were available. He was installed as a 10.5-point favorite at Meadowlands.
We believed in you. You were the chosen ones! (Sorry for another Star Wars reference).
and what did you do?
1. You did not cover
2. You did not win directly
3. Your game went over the projection
4. You allowed a lot of Jets accessories to be changed.
Let’s say one decided to fade the Jets and trust Cincinnati. Here are some accessories the Jets charged for:
• Michael Carter: more than rushing yards
• Mike White: more yards through the air, more than touchdowns through the air, more than yards through the air / on the ground
Oh, and you couldn’t even cover the first quarter margin (-2.5) or the first half margin (-6).
As Chris Jericho once said: Cincinnati, “You just made the list!”
A SIGHT FOR TIRED EYES
The Sam Darnold-Matt Ryan clash in Atlanta was pretty boring.
Let’s review the numbers.
• Ryan: 146 passing yards, 1 TD; Line: 283.5 passing yards, 1.5 TD
• Darnold: 129 passing yards, 0 TD; Line: 237.5 passing yards, 1.5 TD
And see how he crushed his skill players (without Patterson):
• DJ Moore: 59 receiving yards; 83.5 projection
• Robby Anderson: 0 receiving yards; 49.5 projection
• Pitts: 13 receiving yards, 61.5 throwing.
That is difficult to read. If you had the bass across the board, well, great job. But if you thought there would somehow be points in this game (TD support total was 5.5 with a 46.5 over / under), you felt the burn.
Hopefully, you had RedZone to avoid seeing this one.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.