Now that we’ve all recovered from the whiplash the NFL threw at us in Week 8 (Jets winning like a double-digit underdog, Buccaneers losing to backup Trevor Siemian), thankfully we’re into Week 9.
And yet Week 9 has been very tumultuous even before we get to the games on Sunday.
Former Raider Henry Ruggs was in a tragic car accident, which resulted in the death of the driver of the other vehicle. Ruggs was charged with DUI for the result of a person’s death and was banned from the team. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss Week 9, and the Browns released Odell Beckham Jr.
Will Sunday’s action be as dramatic as the previous days? For our bankroll (and sanity) we certainly hope not!
Each week we highlight the similarities and disparities between our analyst picks before diving into each of our best bets.
In terms of teams, some of us agree:
- Three of our analysts lead the Patriots -3.5
- The Cowboys who made the points attracted three of our writers
- Three of our analysts are on the Packers (yes, even without Rodgers) getting 7.5 points.
- The Chargers only give the Eagles 1.5 points, and three of our writers took Los Angeles Against The Spread (ATS)
Regarding the differences:
- While three of us are in the Patriots and Cowboys, one brave writer leads the Panthers at 3.5 while another trusts the Broncos at +10.
- The only other disparity is the Dolphins versus the Texans, where two of our writers are at opposite ends of that result.
Cheers for another week of profitable picks!
Best bets of week 9
These are our criteria for choosing games:
• All probabilities of Sports betting YES
• Each analyst must choose five games
• Three of the bets must be against the spread or over / under
• The remaining two picks (if all five are not ATS or O / U) may be on the money line (but at least one of those picks must be on a loser)
• We believe that transparency is paramount in the world of sports betting, that is why we trust Sharp Rank to keep track of all our picks / performance
Jen Piacenti’s best bet: Patriots -3
I’m messing with Sam Darnold, and I think Bill Belichick will be too.
After a great start to the year, the Panthers have fallen dramatically, averaging just 16.3 points per game and allowing 24 points per game in their last three.
Meanwhile, New England has averaged 36.7 points per game in the past three and is heading in the right direction. Darnold has thrown six interceptions at four touchdowns in the last five games, and was limited in practice this week. Either we’ll see a Darnold beaten up and fighting or… PJ Walker. Even if Christian McCaffrey plays, he’ll probably be on a quick count, and the Patriots and Mac Jones extend their winning streak to three.
Jen’s season record: 30-18
Richard Johnson’s best bet: Raiders -2.5
Yes, it has been a terrible week for the Raiders and because of that, I see an increase in motivation that drives them as they come together.
But this pick is about the Giants. The Giants are bad.
Richard’s season record: 12-27-1
Casey Olson’s best bet: Bengals -2.5
Many outlets this week regarding OBJ and his eventual release which occurred on Friday morning. Additionally, Steve Smith Sr. added to the situation by calling Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield “not very good” and labeling him average. If anything, this week’s drama should add some motivation to the Browns’ side. Although I don’t think it’s enough.
The Bengals are fresh off a shocking loss to the Jets, but they are in the mix at 5-3. A win against the Browns would put them 3-0 in the division, with wins against every other team in the AFC North. That is motivation. The Browns enter losers in three of their last four and have struggled to score, scoring 17 points or less since the last three weeks.
Casey’s season record: 23-19-1
Frank Taddeo’s best bet: Browns / Bengals Over 46.5
This game opened at 45 and has since moved up a point and a half after a strong and respected steam to the Over. In fact, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six games in which the Bengals are favorites at home. On the other hand, the over is 5-1 in the Browns’ last six games when bettors list them as losers. One last significant angle: the finish is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between these two AFC North rivals.
Last year, bettors saw a total of 71 and 65 points in the two divisional matchups between these foes. These two teams somehow forget how to play defense when they line up opposite each other. The OBJ drama and Mayfield’s shoulder injury are concerning, but Mike White just set all sorts of records against this Bengals defense. Also, we know that Joe Burrow, with his plethora of offensive weapons, will keep the scoreboard lighting up.
Frank’s season record: 18-27
Dave Scipione’s best bet: Browns money line
Just when you thought the Browns were dominating the NFL headlines, Rodgers pounced on Friday to get attention. You’d think cutting a star WR, whose dad called the franchise quarterback, would be reason enough to stay away from this Browns-Bengals game, but I’m hitting Cleveland at +115 to win outright.
Cincinnati has guns, but I have a feeling Cleveland’s defensive line will delight in Burrow, creating some shortstop for Mayfield to take advantage of. Yes, I hope Baker is in his game, OBJ drama notwithstanding. The Browns offense consists of a lot of timing routes, and I think the OBJ subtraction will help recalibrate things.
Without OBJ, there is no problem for the Browns as they “travel” to face the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Dave’s season record: 6-4
Will Laws’ best bet: Texans +5.5
Tyrod Taylor will return to center for the Texans after helping them crush Jacksonville in Week 1 before leaving their Week 2 competition due to a hamstring strain. His return should do wonders for Houston, which is actually 4–4 ATS this season despite its dire outlook and still has Brandin Cooks to focus the passing attack.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven’t covered in their last five games and come in with a coverage margin of -7.6 points per game, the worst in the league. These two teams may be the worst in football this year, they have both lost seven in a row after opening week wins so I take the points.
Will’s season record: 7-3
Bill Enright’s best bet: Packers +7.5
How much is Rodgers worth? According to Sportsbook, it is worth 7.5 points, that’s how the line was moved when it was announced that Rodgers would miss Week 9 due to COVID-19. The Chiefs have been favored by 7 points or more four times this year and covered only once. A 25% rate? I can’t stand that low success rate, even if it’s Jordan Love’s first career start. The Chiefs will win, but I don’t expect them to cover. When other people are selling in a panic, it’s time to buy. Take the Packers and the points!
Bill’s season record: 24-22
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For a full list of spreads for NFL Week 9, see SI Sportsbook
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More bets and NFL:
• MLB 2022 World Series Futures
• NFL Week 9 Line Movement
• Picks from Week 10 from the College Football Composite
• Player Accessories of Week 9
• The 2022 QB carousel is coming
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.