Nine House races to watch after California’s redistricting

(CNN) — California’s nonpartisan redistricting commission bucked the national trend last year by creating a new congressional map with at least eight competitive seats, offering pickup opportunities to both Democrats and Republicans vying for control of the US House of Representatives.

Tuesday’s House primaries in California will serve as an early test of strength for both parties as the GOP seeks a net gain of five seats to win the majority.

In 2020, the GOP flipped three California seats for a final tally of 42 Democrats, 11 Republicans.

While Democrats were originally bullish about their chances this year in congressional races across the Golden State, those ambitions have been tempered by the difficult election climate they face. Many California voters are reeling from the highest gas prices in the nation and frustrations over the state’s ongoing homelessness crisis as well as rising crime at a time when all of the top officeholders in the state are Democrats.

The top-of-the-ticket races in California are less dramatic this cycle. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom appears to be gliding toward reelection after the failed effort to recall him last year. Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla, who was appointed last year by Newsom to the seat vacated by Vice President Kamala Harris, appears twice on the ballot Tuesday: He is competing in a special election to fill the remainder of Harris’ term — which ends in January — and for a full six-year term.

Most of Tuesday’s real action will be in the House races. Under California’s “top two” primary system, the top two vote-getters in each congressional race, regardless of party, will advance to the November ballot. Turnout so far looks low, even though every voter in California received a ballot in the mail.

Here is a look at the most interesting House contests to watch.

District 3

This new GOP-leaning district extends from Sacramento suburbs to Lake Tahoe and the mountain communities of the Eastern Sierra. The two most prominent Republican candidates are Assemblyman Kevin Killeywho ran for governor last year as a fiery disrupter and has won Donald Trump’s endorsement, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Joneswho invokes Trump’s name in one of his ads, are the two most prominent GOP candidates.

The most formidable Democratic candidate is Kermit Jones, who served as a flight surgeon with the US Navy and deployed to Iraq. He later became a White House fellow during the Obama administration, where he worked with the Health and Human Services Department on improving care for veterans. Focusing on Kiley, Kermit Jones has framed the race as a choice between “a partisan politician who supports January 6th insurrectionists and a public servant who always puts country above party.”

District 9

Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney’s decision to withdraw prompted another Democrat, Rep. Josh Harder, to swap his Modesto-area district for this more Democratic-leaning seat anchored in Stockton. With $6.8 million in cash on hand as of mid-May, Harder appears well-positioned for November. A former venture capitalist at Silicon Valley-based Bessemer, he has touted his advocacy for expanding health care and for “common-sense gun reforms.”

Republican Tom Patty, a member of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors and a crane company owner, is viewed as Harder’s stiffest competition and promises to bring a national focus to homelessness. Patti’s biography notes that he was a “five-time state and Golden Gloves boxing champion” who trained under boxing coach Cus D’Amato. Mike Tyson headlined a fundraiser for Patti last fall when the candidate was exploring a run for Congress.

District 13

Though this open seat in the Central Valley leans Democratic and a majority of its voters are Latinos, Republicans see an opportunity because of the anger over inflation, the continuing struggle with water issues and the unyielding rise in gas prices.

Assemblyman adam gray, who has focused on expanding the water supply in this heavily agricultural region during his tenure in the statehouse, is viewed as the front-runner among the Democrats in the race. A self-described “radical centrist,” he is backed by the Blue Dog PAC, the campaign arm of a coalition moderate House Democrats. Gray won the endorsement of the California Democratic Party by a 2-to-1 margin over Phil Arballowho unsuccessfully challenged former GOP Rep. Devin Nunes in 2020.

business owner John Duarte, who owns a crops nursery in Stanislaus County, won the coveted designation as a “Young Gun” from the National Republican Congressional Committee. Duarte gained national attention from conservatives during his long-running fight with the Obama administration — he was charged with harming wetlands in violation of the Clean Water Act after plowing a field to plant wheat on his farm. He was fined nearly $2.8 million dollars and ultimately settled the case. Duarte’s tagline: “Send a farmer to Congress.”

District 22

GOP Rep. David Valadao has often challenged the odds in his predominantly Latino, Democratic-leaning Central Valley district — with the notable exception of the 2018 cycle when he narrowly lost to Democrat TJ Cox. I won the seat back two years later. But California’s redistricting commission dealt with Valadao an even more difficult hand this cycle by excising some of the more Republican areas of his current district.

Valadao’s opponents believe he may be more vulnerable to erosion within the GOP base this year because he voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol, even though the former president has not intervened in the race. But Valadao, whose family owns dairies and farmland in Kings County, is leaning into his image of him as an independent voice for the Central Valley as he advocates a state gas tax suspension and promises to be a bulwark against the “radical left.”

Democrats landed a top recruit in Assemblyman Rudy Salaswho is endorsed by the Blue Dog PAC and is already being bolstered with a six-figure ad buy from House Majority PAC, the super PAC tied to House Democratic leadership.

Valadao is being challenged on the right by former Fresno City Councilmember Chris Mathyswho has criticized the incumbent’s impeachment vote and sued the state after it rejected his request to be identified as a “Trump Conservative/Businessman” on the ballot.

District 27

The race for this northern Los Angeles County seat looked like it was headed for a rematch between GOP Rep. mike garciaa former fighter pilot, and Democratic former state Assemblywoman Christy Smithwho lost to Garcia twice in 2020 (first in a special election to replace Democratic Rep. Katie Hill and then in the November election by about 300 votes).

But Democrat Quaye Quarteya former intelligence officer in the Navy, has marshaled a strong challenge for the likely Democratic slot, as he argues that his military experience and background growing up as the son of an immigrant father from Ghana would make him a more formidable contender to face Garcia in November.

In the redrawing of the district, Garcia lost Republican areas in the Simi Valley, making it easier for Democrats to turn this into a highly partisan contrast of ideals in November as they try to boost turnout by highlighting Garcia’s loyalty to Trump and his vote against certifying the 2020 election results from Arizona and Pennsylvania.

District 40

Republican Rep. YoungKimwho flipped her current Biden-won Orange County seat in 2020, initially looked as though she would have an easier race when she decided to run in the newly drawn 40th District, which is far more favorable to the GOP.

But she is new to many voters in the new district — encompassing parts of Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties — and is fending off an unexpectedly strong primary challenge from her right from Marine veteran Greg Rats, a member of the Mission Viejo City Council who has made previous bids for Congress. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has come to Kim’s defense with an ad that calls Raths a liberal and Kim “the conservative choice for Congress.”

Meanwhile, Democrat asif mahmood, a physician who ran unsuccessfully for state insurance commissioner in 2018, has outperformed fundraising expectations for a bid that looked like a long shot for his party. His first ad of him contrasts his support for abortion rights with Raths’ opposition — widely viewed as a ploy to elevate Raths and make this first phase of the contest more difficult for Kim.

District 45

The contest between GOP Rep. michelle steel and Democratic Jay Chen in California’s new 45th District, which was drawn to maximize the political power of its Asian American voters, has gotten surprisingly ugly, with accusations of racism flying from both sides. More than a third of the eligible voters in this Orange County district are Asian American, and redistricting commissioners centered it around Little Saigon, attempting to amplify the influence of an area with a high concentration of Vietnamese American voters.

Steel, who was one of the first Korean American women elected to Congress, and Chen, the son of immigrants from Taiwan, had both intended to run in other districts. But the redrawing of district lines created a pronounced musical chairs effect. Many of the coastal areas of Orange County that Steel currently represents ended up in the more Democratic-leaning 47th District.

Controversy erupted between Chen and Steel this spring after he described Steel’s remarks at one of her town halls by saying: “It’s tough. We’ve transcribed it. You kind of need an interpreter to figure out exactly what she’s saying.” Her campaign accused him of mocking her accent. He wrote an op-ed in the Orange County Register stating that the charge was false and that he was referring to “a written transcript of Steel’s record of flip-flopping and feeding constituents convoluted talking points. … Not any kind of audible accent.” Chen has accused his opponent of continually choosing “the radicals in her party de ella over the good of her district,” including by voting against the bipartisan infrastructure bill. It will likely be one of the closest races in California in November.

District 47

Rep. Katie Porter‘s fundraising prowess has scared off potential challengers before as her star has risen within the Democratic Party. Despite the new 47th District’s Democratic lean, this year’s unpredictable political climate has made Porter a GOP target. While the new district includes Porter’s hometown of Irvine, she is having to introduce herself to voters in many other parts of the district.

Scott Baugh, the former GOP leader of the Assembly and a former chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, is challenging Porter, highlighting the toll of rising crime and higher gas and grocery prices. His campaign portrays Porter as a “leftist” who supported spending programs that are “hurting working class families.” Baugh is backed by McCarthy and was named one of the NRCC’s “Young Guns.” But Democrats are likely to once again highlight his past violations of the state’s Political Reform Act after he agreed to pay fines for those infractions while serving in the Assembly.

District 49

Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is trying to win reelection this fall in a district that now stretches from the southern Orange County coast into northern San Diego County. One of his former challengers of him is seeking a rematch: Republican Brian Maryotta certified financial planner and former mayor of San Juan Capistrano, whom Levin defeated by 6 points in 2020. Like other GOP challengers across the state this year, Maryott asserts that President Joe Biden’s pandemic-era spending policies, supported by Levin, have worsened inflation and that Democrats should pay at the polls in November.

GOP observers are also keeping an eye on Oceanside City Councilmember Christopher Rodriguez, who served two combat tours in Iraq as a Marine. Maryott has institutional party support and has led in fundraising on the GOP side but the American Patriots PAC — a super PAC that supports conservative veterans — has interceded with some late spending for Rodriguez.