Saturday, December 4

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds, Prediction & Trends for FOX Big Noon Kickoff Game

No. 12 Notre Dame and No. 18 Wisconsin meet in a neutral matchup at Soldier Field on Saturday.

Kick-off is scheduled for 12 p.m. at the Big Noon Kickoff game on FOX. The Irish and the Badgers were supposed to meet last year at Lambeau Field, but the game was canceled due to COVID-19.

Notre Dame (3-0) is an underdog in this matchup despite the higher ranking. QB Jack Coan, a transfer from Wisconsin, has eight TDs and two interceptions in three starts. Irish coach Brian Kelly may claim his 106th victory at the school, which would break the record set by legendary coach Knute Rockne.

BENDER: Week 4 Picks Against Spread | Conclusions from week 3

Wisconsin (1-1) had a bye week to prepare and cannot afford a second loss after the season opener against Penn State. QB Graham Mertz has struggled in those first two games with no TD and two interceptions, but the Badgers have a disgusting defense that allows only 33 rushing yards per game.

This is a fun matchup with college football playoff implications. With that in mind, here’s a look at what bettors need to know for the Irish vs. Badger showdown.

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin odds

  • Spread: Wisconsin -5.5
  • Below: 46.5
  • Money line: Wisconsin -250, Notre Dame +198

Three trends to know

– The Badgers are 10-16 ATS against opponents ranked under Chryst since 2015. Wisconsin is 8-3 S / U after a break in the same stretch.

– Notre Dame is 14-8 S / U against Big Ten opponents under Kelly. That includes wins in four of his last five games.

– The Irish are 22-6 S / U with a rest deficit under Kelly. So the Badgers’ bye week shouldn’t be an excuse here.

Three things to look at

Notre Dame offensive line. The Irish have struggled to run the ball in three games averaging 2.9 yards per carry. That’s a departure from his normal standard, and Wisconsin’s ground defense is strong. The Badgers have allowed just 1.8 yards per carry and one rushing on the first down. Kyren Williams’ 51-yard TD against Purdue in Week 3 was a start for Notre Dame, but they must establish the running game against Wisconsin early.

Great game from Graham Mertz. The Badgers have a solid running game around Chez Mellusi (265 yards, 5.2. Ypc.), But this is an opportunity for Mertz, who has yet to throw a TD in two games. Mertz threw two interceptions in the red zone at the end of the loss to Penn State, and Notre Dame has arguably the best defensive player in the FBS in safety Kyle Hamilton, who has 21 tackles and three interceptions.

Slow starts. Both teams have had slow starts on the offensive side. The Badgers are outperforming their opponents 7-0 in the first quarter, and the Irish are being outscored 16-14 by their opponents in the first quarter. As a result, defensive coordinators Marcus Freeman and Jim Leonhard could be more aggressive than usual with their blitz schemes, especially on third down. Coan and Mertz must avoid the big interception in those situations.

Statistics that matter

Wisconsin opponents have converted only 20.8% of their third-down attempts. Notre Dame has capped its opponents to a 37% conversion rate. In a game that will have a slower feel, staying out of third and long on both sides will be critical. Tight ends Michael Mayer and Jake Ferguson will be attacked frequently in those situations.

Notre Dame vs Wisconsin prediction

This is a great place for Coan, who has played well in three starts for the Irish and must block the distraction of going against his former team. Wisconsin will try to dominate time of possession – their opponents are averaging just 18:46 in the TOP per game. If that happens, the Irish may not be able to escape with another victory. But in this game, Coan will hit Mayer and Avery Davis for long TDs, and Notre Dame will pull off a last-minute victory.

Final score: Notre Dame 24, Wisconsin 23

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