Thursday, March 30

Padres vs. Tigers prediction: Odds and pick in a potential high-scoring affair


The San Diego Padres will finish their road trip by heading to Detroit for a three-game series with the Tigers. Although the Padres juust won two out of three games against the Mets, it wasn’t easy as New York’s starters limited their offense to four earned runs in 18 innings of work.

Undoubtedly, the Padres’ hitters will be happy to get out of New York and take their chances in interleague play against Detroit.

Drew Hutchison will make his sixth start this season for the Tigers, while the Padres will counter with a southpaw in Sean Manaea.

Judging by the numbers, both clubs have been more profitable for under bettors. However, Monday’s matchup offers a unique opportunity for over bettors to take center stage.

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Padres vs. Tigers MLB odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: SD (-160) vs. DET (+135)

Spread: SD -1.5 (+105) vs. DET +1.5 (-125)

Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Padres vs. Tigers probable pitchers

Sean Manaea (4.11) vs. Drew Hutchison (4.46)

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Manny Machado
Manny Machado
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Padres vs. Tigers prediction

There are plenty of signs that suggest we could have a high-scoring game. For one, the heatwave currently blanketing much of the country might be responsible for the recent spike in runs across the board.

On Sunday, the total was 10-5 (66.7%) to the over; since the All-Star break, the total is 31-19 (62%) to the over. Those numbers are certainly elevated compared to what we’ve seen throughout the season, given that the over is only cashing at 48.4%.

It’s also worth noting that the Tigers have some lopsided splits when facing a lefty vs. a righty.

This season, Detroit has a .269/.323/.380 line against a southpaw but a .212/.271/.313 split when facing a right-hander. And considering that the Tigers are dead last in ISO (.103), they should benefit from the wind blowing out to left field with gusts as high as 9.9 mph.

If we turn to how the Padres match up against Hutchison, we’ll also find numbers that could point to a big day at the dish for the Padres.

Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera
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In 23 plate appearances, San Diego’s lineup is hitting .381 with a .526 wOBA against Hutchison. Their advanced numbers are also promising, as evidenced by a .369 xBA, .493 xWOBA, and .733 xSLG.

There are also plenty of recent trends on the Tigers’ side that favor the over: The total is 4-0 to the over, with Detroit coming off a game after allowing five or more runs. The total is also 5-0 to the over when the Tigers are facing a team with a winning record.

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As for the Padres, their trends are a bit more unique in that the total is 5-0 to the over when Manaea pitches on the road, with a total that ranges between 7 to 8.5. The total is also 8-1 to the over in the Padres’ last nine interleague road games.

Lastly, the total is 9-1 to the over when Manaea is coming off a quality start.

Betting on Baseball?

All of these trends are active tonight, and I like our chances if we can at least get some contribution from the Tigers.

My model projected a total of 7.93 runs for the game. But according to Ballpark Pal, we could see a four percent increase in runs scored based on the conditions at Comerica Park.

Since I don’t mind playing things a bit safe, I’ll look to play an alternate line of 7.5 runs at -150 odds.

Padres vs. Tigers pick

Over 7.5 runs ALT Line (-150) — BetMGM Sportsbook

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