When the Patriots play the Bills for the third time in Game 2 of the NFL playoffs in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card game (8:15 p.m. ET, CBS), the teams will look to advance to the divisional playoffs by breaking their split in the 2021 regular season.
Buffalo jumped to No. 3 while New England dropped to No. 6 in Week 18 to create this “game three.” The Bills will look to make another run out of quarterback Josh Allen, while the Patriots hope rookie Mac Jones can win in his first career postseason start after leading Alabama to a national championship last year.
The Bills and Patriots are two top-tier defenses, so expect a physical game where yards and points are hard to come by.
Here you will find everything you need to know about betting on Patriots vs. Bills in the 2022 NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for the wild-card game.
MORE WILD PICKS: Against the spread | straight up
Patriots odds vs. Bills for the NFL playoff game
- Spread: bills for 4
- Below: 43.5
- money: Patriots +164, Bills -196
(bet odds per FanDuel bookmaker)
The Bills have been circling the field goal favorites all week. They’ve been playing better since beating the Panthers in Week 15, including handling the Patriots on the road in Week 16. They’ve covered in four straight games since losing to the Patriots and Buccaneers back-to-back.
Patriots vs. Bills All-Time Series
The Patriots still have a commanding 77-46-1 lead. However, the Bills have won three of the last four in the last two seasons. The Patriots won 14-10 at Buffalo in Week 13. The Bills won at New England 33-21 in Week 16. Overall, under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have won eight of the last 11 as part of the dominance.
Three Trends to Know
—56 percent of spread bettors trust Belichick and the Patriots more to cover as road underdogs, remembering they won outright in Buffalo.
64 percent of over/under bettors think the number is too low even though there are two elite defensemen playing in the game.
—The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 straight in their last 10 games. The total has been exceeded in six of those games. The Bills are 5-4-1 ATS and 6-4 SU in their last 10 games with half of them outscoring.
three things to see
Jones against pressure and the Bills’ secondary
Buffalo will be relentless in trying to pressure the rookie QB and the key is to force Jones to pass. He had no sacks or turnovers in the first game, but dropped once and threw two interceptions in the losing effort.
the running games
The Patriots will continue to push Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson as much as possible, their successful game plan from the first meeting. But the Bills also got their late feature back in Devin Singletary. In the last four games, he has produced 323 rushing yards on 76 carries for 5 TDs. The team that runs for the most yards must win.
Both the Bills and Patriots will be looking for big plays in the third phase to support their offense and defense through field position. They also have two of the most reliable kickers in the league in Tyler Bass and Nick Folk. Points and yards are going to be very important, so any big help here is going to be huge.
Statistics that matter
763 rushing yards and 6.3 rushing yards per attempt. Those are the numbers Allen put up on the field, first a career high and second the best in the league in 2021. Allen is hard to defend when he takes off like a freight train, whether by design or out of control. Belichick can’t handle that wild-card nature, either. He outscored the Patriots for 64 yards in the winning Week 16.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction
The Patriots often beat up the Bills because of their great experience with Belichick and Tom Brady. But now that force of recentness belongs to Sean McDermott and Allen. given Jones’ rookie status. The Bills will keep the game in Allen’s hands and let him run and pass, which has worked wonderfully as he’s generally overheated down the stretch. The Bills also have better general skill support with which to survive and advance.
Bills 23, Patriots 20
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.