The game total for the Patriots-Bills showdown is set at just 42.5, so this might not be the most exciting first-round playoff contest, but if we’re creative we can find enough value to produce a proper DFS lineup. These teams are playing for the third time, but we can’t just trust everything we saw in the first two games. However, we can take some aspects of each team’s strengths and weaknesses and design our DraftKings Showdown lineup around those factors. Obviously, the playoffs are headlined by a ton of high-priced daily fantasy football stars, so avoiding chalk as much as possible without sacrificing too much value is key here, too.
These are the important settings for single-game DraftKings contests: Full point PPR, and here they are three-point bonuses for 300 air yards, 100 rushing yards, Y 100 yards receiving. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times the player’s original price, but also gets their total points multiplied by 1.5.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to Win a Showdown Contest
DraftKings Showdown Picks: Patriots vs. Bills
$ 50,000 budget, at least one player from each team is needed.
Captain: (1.5x salary, 1.5x points): WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($ 15,900)
The last time we saw Diggs take on the Patriots, he scored 21.5 DK points and silenced New England fans for good measure. Even if this game gets sloppy, he is the most consistent producer and his goals will remain stable. Hopefully the low point total will keep a few people out of it as his “Captain” pick.
FLEX: QB Josh Allen, Bills ($ 12,800)
Allen will be one of the most chalky plays of the weekend, but we don’t see a path to No. 1 in this tournament without him. He can do it in poor condition thanks to his career advantage, and he could very well be the top scorer here. However, its price tag and chalk level make it difficult to put it on “Captain”, but as long as it continues to target Diggs, we are okay with that.
FLEXIBLE: TE Hunter Henry, Patriots ($ 6,200)
Henry is a touchdown or bust option, but among all the Patriots pass receivers, he probably has the highest advantage. Yeah, maybe a guy like Jakobi Meyers has the safest floor, but the touchdown advantage gives Henry a boost in DFS value. Ultimately, opportunities in the red zone might be slim, but Mac Jones should point him into his security blanket at crucial moments in his postseason debut.
FLEX: WR Gabriel Davis, Bills ($ 4,400)
Even if Emmanuel Sanders (knee) plays, we’re on Davis thanks to his explosive lead. In fact, Sanders playing would keep Davis’ ownership down, so we’re all in. Units are going to be tough to keep up in this AFC East defensive fight, so hitting deep shots will give Buffalo the edge. This selection completes the Allen-Diggs-Davis explosive stack.
FLEXIBLE: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($ 5,000)
Stevenson is half the price of Damien Harris with about the same lead (and less ownership), and while Buffalo’s pass defense is tight, many running backs have gone berserk in this matchup. This is DFS, so we risk Stevenson getting his usual workload and getting opportunities near the goal line.
FLEX: D / ST Invoices ($ 4,800)
A rookie quarterback in his first road playoff start against one of the NFL’s elite defenses? We like the odds of some forced turnovers and maybe even a defensive TD. If the Bills offense can put points on the board and force Mac Jones to be a high-volume passer, mistakes are imminent, and the fact that the Bills’ D / ST is the top scorer in this matchup as well. it is.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.