Thursday, March 28

Protests in Kazakhstan: “Concessions are late, people seek radical reforms”


The wave of protests in Kazakhstan over the rise in the price of gas is keeping the country on edge. Not even bloc resignation of the Kazakh governmentNeither the promise to reduce gas prices again have served to calm the spirits of the protesters who stormed the city hall of Almaty, the main city and former capital of the country.

A state of emergency has been declared in some areas such as Almaty or the western Mangystau region. In addition, to try to stop the protests, mobilized the army and from this very Wednesday internet services have been cut across the country.

Its president, Kasim-Yomart Tokáye, sent a message to the nation last night to ask for sanity: “The calls to attack civilian and military buildings are completely illegal. It is a crime, and the punishment may come. The government will not fall, but we want mutual trust and dialogue instead of conflict “.

Euronews spoke with two experts about the situation the country is going through. Arkadiy Dubnov, Russian Independent Political Expert for Central Asia and Temur Umarov Scientific Adviser to theCarnegie Moscow Center.

Euronews: What is the current situation?

Arkadiy Dubno: The situation is pre-revolutionary. There was widespread discontent that was not transmitted to the authorities due to the lack of democratic institutions. Only a pretext was needed to trigger the protests. They found it in early January: the rising price of liquefied gas, which is crucial for the inhabitants of western Kazakhstan, where 80% of the population uses liquefied gas as fuel for vehicles.

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The price was multiplied by two and the government did not know how to react in time, did not pay attention to the protests.

Although they have made concessions, the authorities are late. People no longer demand them, they are looking for radical economic and political reforms. Representation in parliament, freedom of expression, freedom of political parties …

The people are tired of the ruling family ruling endlessly. He is already in his fourth decade of rule only in the post-Soviet period. They are also tired of the “schizophrenic structure” of the acting authorities in Kazakhstan. No one knows exactly where decisions are made: in Tokayev’s presidential administration or in that of the first president Nazarbayev. This limits decision-making by President Tokayev.

Temur Umarov Advised: The situation has not yet become critical. What is happening will not be the end of the current political regime, although anything could happen. These protests are unprecedented and will leave their mark on the functioning of the state, but it is too early to speak of revolution.

The protesters are still in the streets because the real reason is not that the price of gas has increased. The simple fact of lowering prices or changing government is not going to solve this, you have to make greater concessions.

Euronews: Can the situation in Belarus be repeated?

Temur Umarov Advised: It seems to me, in the modern world and in Kazakhstan in general, it is quite difficult to imagine the Belarusian scenario. Although it is not impossible.

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Lukashenko has overdone himself and is not going to move from his chair. For his part, Nursultan Nazarbayev went on his own and started this transition, which for now is controlled. Before the protests broke out, Kazakhstan was the benchmark for other authoritarian states, including Russia, but overall the situation there has progressed fairly predictably.

The main difference between Kazakhstan and Belarus is that the latter country has always played between Russia and the West. It has been very dependent on Russia, but at the same time it has tried to demonstrate its importance to Europe.

Kazakhstan, unlike Belarus, has really followed a multi-vector policy. There is a marked influence, both from Western countries and China. Should they need a helping hand, they will not be completely under the influence of Moscow, and therefore can afford a little more leeway than the political regime in Belarus.

Arkadiy Dubno: The situation is similar in one respect: the protests are carried out by the people outraged at the behavior of the politicians. But the Belarusian authorities are totalitarian, despotic and absolutely devoid of any respect for the people.

In Belarus, all possible channels for expressing political demands have long been blocked. People go to jail or are expelled from the country. In Kazakhstan this has not been the case so far. There is no such totalitarian image of the ruler. Nazarbayev, yes, he is authoritarian, but the repression of people protesting in Kazakhstan has not happened so far.

Euronews: What can you tell us about Moscow’s influence?

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Temur Umarov Advised: What is happening in Kazakhstan has not been motivated by external reasons. It can be assured that there is no Russian, Chinese or Western interference in them. But of course Moscow has a lot of influence over what happens in Kazakhstan. Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s main foreign policy partners and cannot not influence it, but to say that these protests were caused by Moscow, or that they can be stopped by Moscow, is impossible.


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