The Ravens started the season 8-3 and looked like the team to beat in the AFC North. Yet they have slumped for the past five games, all losses, and now face an uphill battle to make the postseason.
The Bengals closed out the AFC North with a win over the Chiefs last week, so now the Ravens’ only hope is to clinch the final AFC wild-card spot. They will need to win to try, but they rely on many other results to help them achieve it.
The team is also dealing with numerous injuries. They have lost key players in the secondary, a whole stable of running backs and Lamar Jackson, who recently faced an ankle injury. Baltimore has also lost a couple of games by one point thanks to failed two-point conversions at the end, so if they had converted even one of them, their chances of reaching the postseason would be better.
Baltimore is still alive in the playoff race, but they’re decidedly long shots. Here’s what needs to happen for the Ravens to make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.
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1. The Ravens must beat the Steelers
Obviously, the Ravens need to win to make the playoffs. After all, they are 8-8 and trailing several teams in the AFC wild card race. That includes the team they’re playing, the Steelers, who are 8-7-1.
The Ravens lost by one point to Pittsburgh earlier in the season after Lamar Jackson failed to connect with Mark Andrews in a potential two-point conversion to win the game. They will be looking for revenge on this one. If they can win the 1 p.m. ET game, they may have a chance to stay in the AFC playoff race at least a little longer, although they’ll need some help jumping to the final wild-card spot.
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2. The Chargers and Colts must lose
The second element of this equation for the Ravens is to create a three-way tie with the Chargers and Colts for last place in the playoffs.
The NFL tiebreaker rules for three-way ties can get complex, but in this case, they are simple. The Ravens have beaten both the Chargers and Colts head to head. As such, they’ve completed a “season sweep” of the two, and that would catapult them ahead of both and lock them up to the seventh seed in the postseason.
Of course, this can be easier said than done. The Chargers are slight favorites over the Raiders, so perhaps they could lose, but the Colts are 15.5-point favorites over the Jaguars. Indianapolis hasn’t won at Jacksonville since 2014, so history may be on the Ravens’ side there, but the 2021 Jaguars have won just two games and are on an eight-game losing streak. Still, at least it is possible.
3. The Dolphins must lose or draw against the Patriots.
This is the latest issue to complicate the Ravens. If they can win and see both the Chargers and Colts lose, they won’t be guaranteed a playoff spot. They still need the Dolphins not to beat the Patriots.
Why is that? Well, if the Dolphins win, they’ll be 9-8, which would force a four-way tie for last playoff spot with the Colts, Chargers, Ravens and Dolphins. The Ravens would no longer own the tiebreaker, as they lost head-to-head to Miami, thus not maintaining the “season sweep” over all three teams. Instead, the Colts, who would hold the conference’s top record at 7-5, would.
In short, the crows can make the playoffs. They may find it difficult to do so as three other teams control their destiny.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.