Saturday, January 28

Ryan Garcia Vs. Javier Fortuna: Odds, Records, Prediction


After stepping away from boxing for 15 months to maintain his mental health, Ryan Garcia takes his next step on the comeback trail vs. Javier Fortuna on Saturday night. It’s an important fight for Garcia, as he faces a former world titlist in one of his toughest challenges from him yet. Already, though, plans are being made for his next fight, which is always a dangerous game to play. Here’s everything you need to know about Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

After knocking out Luke Campbell in January 2021 for the biggest win of his career, Garcia didn’t return for more than a year. Once he did, he easily handled Emmanuel Tagoe, but he’s also been verbally jousting with former training camp partner Canelo Alvarez and he’s been talking about a potential clash with Gervonta “Tank” Davis. Don’t think that Fortuna hasn’t noticed.

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“Ryan is a good fighter, but we hope that this time around he doesn’t have any excuses not to fight me,” Fortuna said, referring to the postponement of their clash during the time when Garcia was taking time away from boxing. “I see that he is very focused on another fight instead of focusing on the fight he has this Saturday. And we hope that after I beat him on Saturday, he doesn’t have any excuses.”

Against Tagoe, Garcia won a wide unanimous decision, and he looked solid, especially after having been away from the ring for so long. But he didn’t necessarily look great either.

Before his sabbatical, he had been on a hot streak with former trainer Eddy Reynoso, scoring three-straight impressive KO wins against Jackson, Francisco Fonseca and Romero Duno. Now that he’s left the Reynoso/Alvarez camp and teamed up with famed trainer Joe Goossen, Garcia is still in the process of paving his way toward a world title shot.

Even if he’s not yet at his best with his new trainer, Garcia said he has too much talent for Fortuna.

“It doesn’t matter if you are not 100%. We are at the point where that doesn’t event matter,” Garcia said. “I am at the point that it wouldn’t matter if I am at 65%, I am destroying Fortuna. He cannot beat me. I am levels above him.”

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Here’s more info on the Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna showdown that US viewers can watch on DAZN beginning at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna odds

If you think Fortuna can pull the upset and you’ve procrastinated wagering money on this fight, congrats! You’ve created even more value for yourself. With Garcia the -1400 favorite (bet $1,400 to win $100), Fortuna walks into the ring as a +825 underdog (win $825 on a $100 wager). Considering Fortuna was +500 when the fight was first announced and was +600 about three weeks ago, most people have been throwing their money on Garcia. Betting Fortuna at more than 8/1 could be a great play.

If you like Garcia, you could get him at +240 to win by decision or -250 to win by stoppage. I don’t love either of those props. Maybe a better value would be to take Garcia by stoppage in rounds 7-12 at +187. But honestly, I don’t love that price either.

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Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna records

Garcia (22-0, 18 KOs) is still an undefeated lightweight contender, and he certainly has some solid wins, most notably against Campbell. to win vs. Fortuna would be on the level of Campbell, especially if Garcia can easily handle whatever new looks that Fortuna will show him. Ultimately, if Garcia is as good as his handlers believe, he shouldn’t have too many issues passing this test.

At 37-3-1 (26 KOs), Fortuna has had plenty of success in his career. But every time he’s faced an A-level fighter (or even a B-plus level fighter), he’s failed. That includes losses to Joseph Diaz and Robert Easter Jr. His best win from him probably came against Bryan Vasquez, but that was seven years ago. Fortuna has a chance to pull off the upset, but let’s say this: he’s never beaten a fighter as good as Garcia.

Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna prediction

It’ll be interesting to see how far Garcia has progressed in his second fight with Goossen. He gets a pass for looking slightly underwhelming against Tagoe. A stoppage against Fortuna would be a nice moment for him. I think he’s going to look to be more aggressive, and I think he’ll eventually end the fight early. Say, Garcia by TKO in the ninth round.

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