Monday, June 27

Saints vs Dolphins Odds, Prediction, Betting Trends for NFL ‘Monday Night Football’

When the Dolphins (7-7) travel to play the Saints (7-7) in New Orleans to close out Week 16 of the NFL on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 pm ET, ESPN), it’s a crucial battle. between conferences to help decide AFC and NFC wild card races.

Miami would rank at No. 7 in the AFC at 8-7, which would spell a remarkable seventh straight win after a lousy 1-7 start. New Orleans can’t beat San Francisco or Philadelphia with a win, but it would go to No. 8 just behind both teams in the battle for the final NFC wild-card spot.

The Dolphins are rolling due to a much better defense under Brian Flores and an efficient QB game from Tua Tagovailoa. The Saints have faded but bounced back with two straight wins after a five-game losing streak midway through the season. Due to COVID-19 and injuries, fourth-round rookie Ian Book will get the call at quarterback, but the defense is red hot after knocking out Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Week 15.

Here’s everything you need to know about betting on the Saints vs. Dolphins in Week 16, including updated odds, trends, and our “Monday Night Football” prediction.

MORE: Updated Image of NFL Playoffs After Week 16 Games

Saints vs. Dolphins odds for Monday Night Football

  • Spread: Dolphins for 3
  • Below: 36.5
  • Money line: Dolphins -164, Santos +138

The Saints started the week as three-point favorites, until they were hit with a major COVID-19 outbreak that affected both their offense and defense in a big way. The Dolphins are much healthier overall going into the game.

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(betting odds per FanDuel sports betting)

Saints vs. Dolphins series of all time

The teams have met a dozen times over the years. The Dolphins have won six times. The Saints have also won six times. The Saints have won three straight games in the series, all in the Drew Brees era. The Dolphins will try to change the course of the road that leads to Book.

Three trends to know

—59 percent of spread bettors like the Dolphins taking care of their small number given the status of the entire Saints team.

—55 percent of over / under bettors think the total points are too microscopic being under 40 points given the two defenders.

—The Dolphins are just 5-4-1 against differential, having been 6-4 in the last 10 games. Only four of those games have ended. The Saints are 5-5 ATS and 5-5 SU in their last 10 games and only half are beaten.

Three things to see

Who saves the saints?

The Saints don’t have much of a wide receiver and the passing game is less reliable without Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill. So this seems to be a busy game for running back Alvin Kamara. Last Christmas, he posted a six TD game over the Vikings and he should have the spirit of taking his team back. The Saints will also need more big plays from the defense and make this a low-scoring affair.

Who delivers the Dolphins?

Tagovailoa can’t expect much from the running game against the Saints defense, so he has to be adept at spreading the ball to wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki. New Orleans did a number on the Tampa Bay receiving corps, but took a major break from injuries in the middlegame. The Dolphins need to pitch to win.

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Who wants it more at 7-7?

Defenders are well trained and like to exercise and play hard. With points and big plays hard to come by, it will come down to which team is constantly motivated at prime time to be emotionally up to the task. The Saints are helped by their home advantage, but the Dolphins have been doing it everywhere since their slow start.

Statistics that matter

43.6 percent and 51 percent. The first number represents how often opponents score TDs on red zone opportunities against the Saints defense, the number one in the NFL. The second number belongs to the defense of the Dolphins in the same statistic, also strong. This game will be about which team can best convert opportunities near the goal line to avoid winning a defensive battle of attrition turned into a field goal festival.

Saints vs Dolphins prediction

Miami is mostly healthy and has a versatile, multi-pronged offense around Tagovailoa. He will not be shy about passing to move the ball in a team that stops the race well. They have dangerous weapons on the field to cause matchmaking problems. Book will go to any lengths to achieve a victory for the Saints with plenty of help from Kamara, but they don’t have enough firepower beyond their dynamic traits to win again.

Dolphins 17, Santos 13

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