Wednesday, March 27

Snowstorm could (possibly) be a bomb cyclone (or not), forecasters say


A possible bomb cyclone could hit the tri-state area early Saturday, meaning the blizzard that begins Friday could quickly strengthen, the National Weather Service said.

These powerful types of storms occur when a cold air mass “collides” with a warmer air mass, which can derive its heat from the ocean, the weather service says.

Right now, there is a possibility of a bomb cyclone because a high-pressure system with frigid air is building over eastern Canada; like its opposite, a low-pressure system is developing over the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas, said Tiffany Fortier, an Upton-member weather service meteorologist.

That “high area over northern New England and the Canadian area helps drive the formation of the coastal lows,” he said.

So what really matters, Fortier said, is how these two systems interact. That will also help “steer” the storm, he said.

At least one model run brings the storm closer to shore, meaning New York City could get more snow than Long Island, he said.

“But if it shoots to the east, our total chances of snowfall are lower.”

However, “our models are still fighting over it.” she said.

To qualify as a bomb cyclone, sometimes called bombogenesis, the air pressure at the center of a low-pressure system must drop by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours.

At sea level, the average atmospheric pressure is 1013.25 millibars.

Some of these bomb cyclones can drop the air pressure much lower than the minimum, slipping 50 or 60 millibars, for example.

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Currently, the weather service’s computer models are producing conflicting predictions.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty; it’s still iffy,” he said. “So we don’t want to just spread the word so easily,” Fortier said.

However, the weather service’s storm forecasting center said a possible bomb cyclone, produced by a trough or low, was developing.

“A strong shortwave trough is forecast to center over the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas early Saturday before continuing northeastward as it matures into a closed mid-latitude cyclone.”

The blizzard on the way is expected to be a “Miller A” event, the weather service said.

That type of storm, Fortier said, typically forms off the southeast coast and then “intensifies and moves along the coast.”

By contrast, a “Miller B” storm first hits the Ohio Valley, weakens as it travels through the Appalachians, and then redevelops on the East Coast.


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