Wednesday, October 27

Statistical experts give a tie between Putin’s party and the Communists in the Russian elections

Electoral college in Russia.

Electoral college in Russia.

Elbow to elbow Come in United russia, the training of President Vladimir Putin, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), benefited from abroad by the recommendation of the smart vote performed by the opponent Alekséi Navalni. A participation that did not exceed in no case the 40% of the electorate, that is, 12 points less than that officially announced and whose manipulation gave the electoral authorities a sufficient margin to Cook a victory that will allow the Kremlin to continue to control the legislative body for the next five years. These are the conclusions they have reached Boris Ovchínnikov and Alexei Kupriánov, two Russian statistical experts with whom El Periódico de Cataluña, the newspaper that belongs to this group, Prensa Ibérica, has spoken after carrying out a first analysis of the results of the recent legislative sessions held in Russia.

Determining the actual results of the elections is an arduous task, made difficult by the existence of a mixed electoral system. The half of the seats of the State Duma (225) They are elected proportionally in party lists in a single constituency, and the other in single-member constituencies where only one candidate is voted. At the moment, “you can only analyze the votes for the proportional system“, says Kuprianov.

Huge proportions

And here, the counterfeiting took on enormous proportions, according to both experts. “It has been exaggerated the double the number of votes received by United Russia, maybe even more, “says Ovchinnikov.” Without falsification and without voting under duress, it would grant United Russia a support at the 29-30% level, similar to that of the KPRF, “confirms Kuprianov. The official results differ enormously from these assessments: according to the electoral commission, the pro-government obtained the 49.2% of the ballots, that is, almost 20 points above of these estimates, while the Communists hovered around the 19%, a ten points less.

In this almost technical tie, according to Ovchinnikov, the ruling party would have an advantage: “On a national scale, the KPRF is in second position, although a short distance from United Russia; they have slightly less than 30% of the votes” .

The participation rate, artificially inflated, is what would have allowed russian authorities add those extra votes needed to RU. Kuprianov has elaborated some graphics which show the number of polling stations where participation and the results obtained were inflated, and concludes that in these elections there were far fewer polling stations where no ballots were added than in previous legislative elections. In those few counterfeit-free voting centers, the results point to around a 30% for each party. For his part, Ovchínnikov has identified a series of regions in which the participation was real, less than 40%, while in others, it exceeded “50%” and it even got closer “al 100%”. In this second group of manipulated regions, which include from Saratov but especially the backward Caucasian republics, United Russia obtained a result clearly superior.

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