As everyone expected, here’s a preview of the Los Angeles Rams’ attempt to win a Super Bowl against the (double check notes) Cincinnati Bengals! On the heels of one of the biggest playoff tournaments in modern NFL history, in which five straight games were decided on the final play and the Bengals became one of only two teams in playoff history to win a overtime game without winning the coin toss, we have a totally unexpected Super Bowl. From the NFC, a star-studded roster that constantly mortgages its future for the chance to make games like this. From the AFC, a local roster peppered with a handful of top-performing free agents orbiting their collective sun, quarterback Joe Burrow.
Let’s get into it…
Who does Las Vegas think will win?
The Rams are currently a 3.5-point favorite, according to Sports betting YES. While much is being made of the fact that a second straight team will play in their home stadium, this won’t be an overwhelmingly pro-Rams crowd. There were several times Sunday when the Rams had to use a silent count in their own stadium on offense. Attempts to curb the 49ers’ ticket buying were laughably ineffective. Regardless, a Super Bowl always produces a neutral crowd, which will further drown out the Rams’ nascent Los Angeles fan base.
Bengals fans travel impressively well. A first-hand account of his presence in Nashville shows his willingness to make the trip. This is a magical race. They will be well represented.
How do the Rams win this game?
While it seemed like some Rams fans were openly cheering for a Bengals win before their own win on Sunday, Cincinnati’s success defending the perimeter against the Chiefs cuts to the heart of what the Rams do so well. Tyreek Hill’s fourth-down save and the way his defense instinctively swamped a short-range bread-and-butter play is a good microcosm of the instinctive effort plays Lou Anarumo’s defense has displayed throughout the playoffs. . Sean McVay often bets that his opponents will have a hard time making tackles in the open field. It’s the same core philosophy that led Kyle Shanahan to take down YAC superstars like Deebo Samuel. It’s the reason Cooper Kupp is a triple crown winner at wide receiver.
Kupp’s presence in the screen game is beautiful to watch. He slid through a very aggressive 49ers secondary on Sunday and has overcome just about any type of coverage teams have thrown at him. It’s the Rams’ short yardage/running game when the running game isn’t effective. When the Cardinals figured out a way to shut him down a few weeks ago, Odell Beckham and Tyler Higbee were able to dominate in isolation.
The Rams can and will win if they can dictate the terms on which the defense must play. If McVay gets a chance to put the chess pieces on the board, there’s no way he’s going to lose. If the defense is too scared to go after Matt Stafford, wary of downfield passing plays, if he can pull off anything resembling a running game, the Bengals can kiss their miracle season goodbye.
This is especially true if Los Angeles can build anything resembling an advantage. We saw it well illustrated against the 49ers. While Von Miller’s name wasn’t mentioned much, Raheem Morris scores the perfect late blitz to force Jimmy Garoppolo’s hand in the knockout interception. When this defense knows it can simply rush the passer, it’s primed to completely dominate.
How do the Bengals win this game?
I’m not sure how many people will talk about Samaje Perine’s touchdown before the half, which turned an unmanageable game into a 21-10 deficit, but they should. It was indicative of the kind of effort plays the Bengals have gotten from their skill position players that keep them in games and change the complexion of what the opposing defense is trying to do.
This was similar to Ja’Marr Chase. mass capture vs titans, which was one of the few plays where Mike Vrabel decided to send in additional running backs and prevented Vrabel from doing it again (even though the Titans were still very successful with four-man basic pressure).
The Bengals win this game by keeping Joe Burrow somewhat upright, allowing him some small periods of time to get into a groove and get another one of these massive, game-altering plays on offense. Will it be harder against the Rams? Possibly.
While Zac Taylor was creative with his use of Chase on Sunday, sometimes turning him into a decoy to lighten the box for Joe Mixon, he’ll have to get Chase out of Jalen Ramsey’s trap and force the Rams to respect his talented set. of complementary receptors. They’ll also need to set up Mixon early in the game, which is a tall order given the Rams will likely use Aaron Donald over their weaker right side, forcing all running plays to the opposite side where a swath of defenders is waiting.
What are the main lines of the story?
• Early games of Sean McVay’s legacy: McVay is still only 36 years old, but he is three years away from his first trip to the Super Bowl. He’s been open and honest about the lessons he’s learned, namely not diversifying enough from what he did well during the postseason to match the defense Bill Belichick brought up specifically to kill off some of his basic offensive concepts. Of course, McVay has delivered a coaching masterclass during his early years in the NFL and weathered an extraordinarily difficult NFC playoff camp to return to the Super Bowl. Now he’s also armed with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Winning this game takes him from a possible future Hall of Famer to a Belichick-type career he might once rival.
• Matt Stafford in the Super Bowl: While it seemed impossible for so many years given his time with the Lions, Stafford is now in the biggest game of his life; the kind of games he said he wished he could play in all those lonely years in Michigan. The moment legitimizes all the pick-and-cap gymnastics the Rams have had to go through, both to clear the books on Jared Goff’s contract and to bring Stafford on board in the first place. Now, Stafford will be under pressure to return the favor. While he’s been tremendous in Los Angeles, he hasn’t been immune to a few Goff-ian interceptions and nearly threw a season-ending one against the 49ers on Sunday. If the pick hadn’t been ruled out in the fourth quarter, allowing the 49ers a chance to go up 10 points, we might be discussing a very different kind of Stafford narrative.
• Andrew Whitworth, the Rams’ seemingly timeless offensive tackle, spent most of his career in Cincinnati and is perhaps the last active bridge to the Bengals’ rocky past and string of playoff failures. Whitworth’s departure was seen, at the time, as an example of the Bengals’ white flag waving in free agency, reluctant to spend money.
• Joe Burrow’s rising star: Burrow came into the NFL with a reputation as one of the best big-game players in recent college football history. However, what he has done at the NFL level is simply momentous. We’re looking at one of the best runs by a young quarterback in NFL history, and he could become the first person to win a Heisman, a college national title and a Super Bowl. Through it all, he has been unflappable, engaging, tough and tireless. With a bye week to go for Raheem Morris’s defense, there should be little doubt about his ability to keep this game close.
• Another battle of familiar minds: Zac Taylor was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator in Los Angeles before taking over the Bengals’ job and represents the second coach McVay faces in a row with intimate knowledge of how he likes to operate. Kyle Shanahan did a good job of forcing McVay to single hand behind his back in a sketchy fashion. Taylor will no doubt have her own ideas. As the nouveau-Shanahan tree begins to spread throughout the NFL, these matchups will become more and more common. Will the relative stall?
• What’s next for Odell Beckham? Beckham’s nine receptions for 113 yards against the 49ers were something of a benchmark, forcing teams to acknowledge that you simply can’t defend in individual coverage. His humble beginnings in Los Angeles did not last for long. He showed the ability to quickly digest a complex playbook and understand the nuances of a McVay offense that relies on wonderfully small details. It seems like another life and another time when Beckham first entered our consciousness as a rookie phenom who catches with one hand. And that may be true. But he has come through some dry spells to emerge as one of the Rams’ offensive footholds. The more you embrace this system, the more you love it.
More NFL coverage:
• The Bengals are the NFL’s best underdog story in decades
• Cooper Kupp’s Scientific Approach to Greatness
• Von Miller on his craft, OBJ and Cleveland, and the death of Demaryius Thomas
• The rise of Joe Burrow, through the eyes of his parents
• Conference Championship Sunday Takeout: Burrow Makes Magic
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.