The Taliban victory inspires the Southeast Asian extremists and it sets off the alarms of their governments, as fearful as the rest that Afghanistan will incubate and export terrorists again. The region has the 15% of the world’s MuslimsThey are the majority in Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei and have a significant presence in the southern Philippines and Thailand. He enjoyed for a long time a moderate Islamism, pro-capitalist, neoliberal and friendly to diversity and tourism. It is still the majority but the more radical factions They ended up sneaking in and today is, after the Middle East, the corner of the world with the most fundamentalists and the one that has suffered the most.
The attacks in the tourist Bali They left hundreds of dead at the beginning of the millennium and the 2017 siege of the Philippine city of Marawi caused more than a thousand victims. In that episode, a dozen nationalities were counted among the attackers, a corollary of a transnational threat. Likewise, insurgent groups such as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, on the Philippine island of Mindanao, have spent decades fighting with the Army. In that delicate context the taliban emerge again.
The fight against terrorism It is the priority of ASEAN, the organization that brings together 10 countries in the area. Last month, after meeting the US exit from Afghanistan, recalled “the importance of a collective and comprehensive action against terrorism and radicalization. “There is no shortage of grudge towards Washington. Joe Biden clears the way for the Taliban, increasing the risk of attacks and refugee floods, after Donald Trump defaulted from the Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation Agreement.
Taliban as an example
The return of the Taliban aggravates the pictureconfirms Muhammad Haziq Bin Jani, an analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “So far they have not encouraged the Muslims of the world to carry out violent actions but his takeover can be interpreted as a good omen and used as an example by Islamists towards their followers. Sometimes a simplistic and utopian interpretation, unreal and non-Islamist, is enough to ignite movements that lead to deadly attacks“, alert.
The urgent communications of cells that make up the ball of radical fundamentalism they confirm the rejoicing. The Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah, close to Al Qaeda, congratulated itself these days for “the victory of the fighters of the Islamic Emirate after 20 years trying liberate Afghanistan from occupation America and its puppet government, “signed the son of the clergyman who had ordered those bomb attacks in Bali two decades ago.
Analysts scrutinizing social media have perceived the enthusiasm of the new generations. The new Taliban persist with their beards and AK-47s but they have sophisticated with sunglasses, sneakers and colorful outfits. Its version 2.0 is not only an ideological but an aesthetic reference. It also worries that success formula expand the mass of followers. The Taliban aspire to solidify in the Afghan government in their second experience and, if successful, they will confirm themselves as the alternative to the Islamic State (IS) failures and Syria and Iraq.
The bottom line is whether from enthusiasm to attacks. The variables are multiple. The fight against terrorism in Indonesia, the country with the most Muslims in the world, has been exemplary in recent years. The police task and the campaigns to prevent radicalization they explain that the attacks are less and more artisanal. The sincerity of Taliban promises to bridle terrorism. And, finally, their ability to fulfill them in an atomized and de-hierarchical fundamentalist framework.
Richard Heydarian, a professor at La Salle University and an expert on terrorism in the region, recalls that the Taliban are more al-Qaeda-related than IS. “I don’t think they are capable of exerting absolute control in all regions of the country. In some there will be resistance from secular democratic forces but others could fall under the influence. IS influence “, he points out. Afghanistan is plunging into a complex and unstable scenario, he adds. “And that will attract extremist elements that they will compete with the Taliban for legitimation and distribution of services. We have seen the IS take advantage of failed states like Iraq or Syria “, alert.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.