Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-37) meet the Boston Red Sox (45-35) for the 2nd of their 3-game series at Fenway Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston won the series opener 4-0 Monday thanks in part to RP Kutter Crawford, who went 5 2/3 scoreless innings, with 2 H, 0 BB and 8 K.

The teams are tied 2-2 in the season series and the Red Sox have a plus-1 run differential in those meetings.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Jeffrey Springs vs. RHP Nick Pivetta 

Springs is 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 60 IP over 10 starts and 8 relief appearances.

• Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 4-3 home win vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates June 24 with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 0 BB and 9 K.
• 2022 as a starter: 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 8 HR and 9.8 K/9.

Pivetta is 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 94 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

• Last start: Won 6-5 Wednesday at the Toronto Blue Jays with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
• 2021 vs. the Rays: 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2 HR, 12 BB and 24 K in 4 starts.

Rays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Red Sox 3

Money line

BET the RAYS (+105) because they have a hefty edge in the starting pitching matchup and there’s some reverse line movement (RLM) headed toward Tampa in the betting market.

Springs has better advanced pitching numbers than Pivetta both against Tuesday’s opponent and on the season.

Springs grades 72nd percentile or better throughout the MLB in exit velocity (EV), hard-hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate, K%, BB% and expected ERA, per Statcast. Pivetta is in the 36th percentile or worse in EV, hard-hit, whiff and chase rates.

Furthermore, Springs has a .233/.304/.403 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with a 27.3% K% and 87.3 mph EV in 22 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Boston batters.

Pivetta has a .278/.361/.476 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 22.2 K% and 93.2 mph EV in 54 PA vs. current Tampa hitters.

Lastly, Boston’s ML has been lowered from a -135 opener down to the current number despite nearly 80% of the cash in the betting market being on the Red Sox, per Pregame.com. This type of suspicious line movement suggests oddsmakers are daring bettors to take more pro-Boston action.

BET 1 unit the RAYS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rays +1.5 (-180) is too expensive considering Tampa is just 11-7 RL as road underdogs while the Red Sox -1.5 (+145) are a decent 15-16 RL as home favorites. Also just 2 of the Rays-Red Sox 4 meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-115) because Rays-Red Sox are 0-3-1 O/U in their 4 meetings in 2022, Tampa is 0-4 O/U in Springs’ last 4 starts vs. teams with a winning record and Boston is 0-5-1 O/U in its last 6 games against left-handed starters.

However, the UNDER 9.5 (-115) is only a “lean” because Fenway Park is 7th in park factor (aka very hitter-friendly) and we are seeing that same suspect RLM in the betting market for the total. A slight majority of the action is on the Under, but the total has increased from a 9-run opener, per Pregame.com.

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