The president of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), José Félix Tezanos, has recognized that the body was not correct in the predictions of the results of the elections of May 4 (4M) with the pre-election polls, for which it has advocated addressing a “rigorous, objective and unbiased debate, without ad hominem disqualifications” against he.
“To advance down this path, the first thing is recognize such errors, evaluating them in their real measure, and analyzing how they can be rectified in social and political contexts such as the current ones, “Tezanos stressed in an opinion article in the newspaper El País, where he has expressed that he is not” a fortune teller nor do I pretend that the CIS be a fortune-telling institution. ”
The predictions of the last pre-election poll fell far short of the results obtained at the polls on May 4, since the poll published on April 5 gave a virtual tie between the left and right blocs with 68 deputies.
In addition, in the last “flash” poll of April 22, it granted a virtual tie between the right and the left, and left the door open for the left bloc to gather an absolute majority to govern with 73 seats, but finally PSOE , More Madrid and We Can they only managed to add 58.
Tezanos has defended that “at all times the CIS polls gave the PP the winner”, although he attributed between six and eleven fewer seats of those it obtained in the regional elections, while the United We can estimate 10 seats, which it has had, and Citizens none, as it has been.
Besides, the survey “flash” of April 22 predicted More Madrid 22-24 seats (it had 24) and Vox 11-13 (it had 13). The PSOE finally won 24 seats, between 10 and 14 seats less than the CIS attributed to the Socialists.
“It is clear that our surveys did not detect the fall of the PSOE, possibly because it occurred basically in the last three or four days, “said Tezanos, who has encouraged the sociological sector to” focus the discussion on scientific debates. ”
According to Tezanos, in Spanish society there are “increasing volatility” and “unpredictability” because more and more voters decide at the last minute who to vote for, and 16-18% do so in the last week of the campaign.
Tezanos has insisted that the CIS “has always been correct in identifying the winning parties and, on several occasions, the distribution of seats has been anticipated with remarkable precision, as happened in the April 2019 elections. in the Galician, in the Basque and in the Catalan, in which no one gave the PSC the winner “.
In his opinion, the possible errors of the CIS in the past have not occurred “due to the inexperience of its technicians or its presidents, but because they continued to use vote estimation models that they came from the eighties and that they were out of date. ”
“We do not intend to cajole anyone with fortune-telling stratagems after the fact, regardless of what the legitimate political opinions of each one “, the president of the CIS has affirmed, and has added that “the only thing that can be demanded of us is that our ideas are public and we do not allow ourselves to be influenced by them in professional work”.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.