Thursday, March 28

The CEOE, between rejecting the minimum wage or signing a raise for two years


The social dialogue returns after the holidays, and one of the first items on the agenda is the fixing the Minimum Interprofessional Salary (SMI). Although this indicator is normally approved at the end of the year, to enter into force at the beginning of the following year, on this occasion the negotiation of the labor reform monopolized the dialogue table until the last bars of 2021, so that the same norm contemplates an extension of the current SMI (set at 965 euros per month since last September) to give time to social agents and the Government to dialogue before approving the increase figure for 2022. And all sources indicate that the result of the negotiation depends mainly on the patronal, which moves between two maximum possibilities: at one extreme, the refusal to accept a raise of the SMI; in the other one, agree not only to 2022, but also to 2023.

A senior CEOE leader confirms that a common position has not yet been agreed within the management of the business organization, and the social dialogue table has not yet been opened, although sources of the negotiation may already indicate to The newspaper of Spain what are the possibilities because the interlocutors are always the same: the technicians who have forged the agreements (and disagreements) in for him, pensions and job market In recent months, they are also those who discuss SMI, and have already informally exchanged views in recent weeks. And the ball is in the CEOE court because the unions they have no doubts what their position is: they have the Government’s commitment, acquired in the previous negotiation, that the SMI will be raised in 2022 to be “around one thousand euros.” In this way, the next step would be another moderate rise in 2023 to reach the commitment acquired in the Government agreement between PSOE and United We Can leave the SMI at 60% of the average salary at the end of the legislature. UGT and CCOO thus start from a defensive position: to make sure that the Executive fulfills what was promised.

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Elections in the employer’s association

The initiative is therefore in the hands of the employers, which is the one that has to decide whether to oppose the increase (as it did in September, when the increase from 950 euros per month to 965 was rejected), or if it participates in the negotiations with the aim of reaching a pact, and in that case if you want to close not only the SMI of 2022 but also that of 2023, resolving at once a negotiation for the remainder of the legislature. There are arguments for and against of the two possibilities.

The strong internal opposition that the agreements with the Government are having in CEOE plays in favor of the rejection. In recent months, the employer’s association has left two very important ones unsigned (the aforementioned one from the SMI in September, and the one from the Intergenerational Equity Mechanism of pensions in November), and has given “yes” to the labor reform by the minimal, with the declared opposition of territorial and sectorial employers of a lot of weight: the Madrilenian CEIM, the Catalan Foment, the agrarian Asaja and the motor Anfac. Everything, with a appointment with the polls in November: then the term of the president expires, Antonio Garamendi, which has not yet revealed if it will be presented again or not, but that -if he opted for reelection- he would have to overcome the handicaps of an increasingly open internal opposition and a tense relationship with the Popular Party, which is a highly influential political formation among the business community, and which has already openly manifested his disdain for the pacts that the employer’s association is reaching with the Executive. In summary: the candidate who wants to take over the reins of the employer’s association will have to take into account that the agreements with the Government of Pedro Sanchez are becoming increasingly unpopular within CEOE.

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On the other hand, the negotiating trajectory that the bosses has been leading up to now speaks in favor of the pact: participating in the dialogue until the end, never getting up from the table or slamming the door, and trying to start concessions until the last second. A damage minimization strategy in an unfavorable context – a few months ago, much harsher legislation was anticipated for business interests – which has been praised by conservative think tanks such as FAES, led by former president José María Aznar. The tenacity and fierceness of CEOE’s negotiators, recognized even by their union opponents, and the success of this way of operating anticipate weeks of dialogue on the SMI in which they will fight to the last cent.

Less than a thousand euros

In this sense, sources of the negotiation anticipate that CEOE will now want to close the rise in the minimum wage of 2022 and that of 2023, taking advantage of the fact that the omicron variant sows doubts about the strength of the recovery, and thus guarantee lower increases than those that would result from a government-union pact, and also avoid a new negotiating round for 2023 at the end of this year, when there may be fewer uncertainties about the economy and the arguments in favor of a larger SMI may have more influence.

The committee of experts that Labor commissioned to design a path of increases to bring the SMI to 60% of the average salary in the legislature indicated last summer that the minimum wage should be between 1,011 and 1,049 euros per month in 2023 to fulfill that electoral promise. These sources are betting that CEOE will negotiate to achieve a result closer to the lower figure, while UGT and CCOO aspire to the maximum range, so they anticipate a result that will stay halfway: increases in 2022 to 990 or 995 euros per month , and by 2023 up to 1,030 or 1,040 euros per month. A compromise solution that could open the door to the pact -as long as the employer does not opt ​​for the break-, also taking into account that the division in the Government between the supporters of the rises (the Ministry of Labor) and those of the containment (the Ministry of Economy) tip the balance even further down the middle road.

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