Tuesday, April 20

The CIS draws an artificial tie in Madrid due to an inconsistency in the calculation


Madrid

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Tie. The pre-election barometer of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) places the right and the left with the same seats in the event that the regional elections on May 4 in the Community of Madrid. The PP and Vox have exactly the same deputies as the PSOE, More Madrid and United we can: 68 each.

The organism led by the socialist Jose Felix Tezanos gives air to the PSOE and lowers the optimism of the candidacy of Isabel Diaz Ayuso. Despite confirming its comfortable victory – the CIS raises the PP to 39 percent of the vote and 59 seats – the weakness of Vox – only four tenths above five percent and with nine seats – and the disappearance of Citizens (Cs) would prevent the popular leader from renewing her mandate until the 2023 elections.

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The scenario, however, does not foresee an alternative majority to unseat the PP from the Executive. The left also gathers 68 deputies, with 25 percent of the vote and 38 seats for the PSOE; almost fifteen percent and twenty deputies for Más Madrid and about nine percent and ten seats for United We Can.

The candidacy of Pablo Iglesias, for now, guarantees the entry of United We Can into the Madrid Assembly, something in the air before it stepped forward, but it also falls far short of its goal of surpassing Más Madrid and thus ‘eating’ the alternative space represented by Íñigo Errejón. Your candidate, Monica Garcia, is six points and ten seats above the former vice president of the Government.

For Díaz Ayuso the survey is bitter. Although almost four out of every ten Madrilenians would vote for the PP in the regional elections, the collapse of his former government partner would prevent him from repeating in power and would lead to an electoral repetition. Cs remains at the moment six tenths of reaching the necessary barrier of five percent of the vote. In fact, Vox is closer to being left out. And that is a possibility that was viewed with optimism these days from Ferraz, where they believe that Díaz Ayuso can concentrate the ‘useful vote’ of the right, but not strong enough to reach an absolute majority by itself. And if Vox falls below that five percent, everything changes.

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As would also Edmundo bal, the candidate of Cs, managed to mobilize enough to enter the Madrid Assembly again. If it reaches five percent, it secures a handful of seats that would make it an arbiter of governance. He has already said that he will not agree with Más Madrid or with Iglesias, so the possibility of joining with Díaz Ayuso could make the regional president depend on the party that he ceased from his Executive.

However, in this barometer the number of undecided is especially significant, who could tip the balance to one side or the other and leave this survey worthless. According to the CIS, something more than twenty percent of Madrilenians still do not know who they will vote for in the elections of 4-M. In other words, one in five Madrid residents has not yet decided their vote. A percentage only surpassed by those who say they will vote for the PP and the PSOE. More than three percent of those surveyed say they will not vote and almost five percent prefer not to answer. For this survey, 4,124 interviews were conducted between March 19 and 28.

Incongruity

Demographic experts have warned on Twitter today that the seats awarded by the CIS do not correspond to the voting percentages presented in the poll. As the Community of Madrid is a single constituency, the distribution of deputies with the ley D’Hondt it is quite proportional and easy to calculate.

A) Yes, Paco Beds, Andres Medina O Jose Pablo Ferrándiz, among others, emphasize that with the percentage of vote attributed to each party, the result in seats is not a tie between the right and the left. The correct calculation leaves the PP with 58 seats, the PSOE with 37, Más Madrid with twenty-one, Unidos Podemos with twelve and Vox with eight. Namely, the left would get seventy MPs for the 66 on the right, which could not form a government despite the victory of Díaz Ayuso.

The tie that the CIS does draw coincides with the speech of Gabilondo and the PSOE of Madrid, who have been warning for days of the tightness of the polls and of a tie situation in an attempt to mobilize their electorate. Speaking to Ser, Tezanos has defended that the calculations are “honest and objective” and explained that a median has been made with several different estimation models, hence the vote estimate and seats by the D system do not match. ‘Hondt. “It is an estimate, everything is very open,” he added, pointing out that it would have seemed “a joke” to put forks because Cs, for example, would be between zero and seven deputies, depending on whether or not it reaches five percent of the vote.

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