Tuesday, February 7

The CIS increases the gap between PP and PSOE in Andalusia to twelve points


Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Juanma Moreno. / EP

The latest polls leave Moreno on the threshold of the absolute majority, although in Genoa they do not want there to be excess confidence

Less than a week before the elections in Andalusia, the CIS once again brings positive news for the PP. The ‘flash’ poll published this Monday does not offer a calculation of seats this time, but it does estimate the percentage of the vote that each party will obtain in next Sunday’s elections. And if a week ago the public institute pointed out that the distance between the popular and the socialists was ten points, now in this survey carried out between June 6 and 7, it is close to twelve.

The study indicates that the surprising vote transfer from the PSOE to the PP, of 11% in the previous survey, has moderated but still remains at a high 9.2%. The popular ones also continue to capture the vote of both Vox and, above all, Citizens (51% of the former voters of this party now indicate that they will vote for Juanma Moreno). In the case of those who bet on the extreme right in 2018, almost 30% say they will bet on the PP compared to 9.3% who will go the opposite way.

The socialists, meanwhile, continue without mobilizing their own. Up to 18% of his old voters say they still don’t know what they will do on June 19. But, in addition, Pedro Sánchez’s party has to face another relevant ‘handicap’. His candidate, Juan Espadas, former mayor of Seville, remains very little known. Despite the fact that it seems that the pre-campaign and the campaign have helped to improve their situation, there are still 25% of Andalusians unable to recognize it.

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Absolute majority, within reach

These data coincide with the private polls published this weekend in different media in which the PP appears fired. In some it even exceeds 50 seats, touching the Government alone. According to a GAD3 survey for ‘ABC’, only two seats separate Juanma Moreno Bonilla from the ambitious absolute majority, who would obtain 53 seats and 41.2% of the vote.

All the polls, including the one carried out by the CIS, show that it is dissatisfied that the PP will add more seats than the left next 19-J and will remain very close to the absolute majority, which is at the threshold of 55 deputies. The NC Report poll for ‘La Razón’, which is also published this Monday, gives the popular a range of between 48 and 50 seats compared to the 26 it took in December 2018. The PSOE would get between 31 and 33 seats, if anything two fewer than those who reaped in the previous regional ones when the socialist initials achieved their worst result while Vox is in the range of 16-18 deputies.

Practically the same result that GAD3 grants to the formation of Santiago Abascal. According to this survey, the candidate of the Macarena Olona formation would obtain 16 deputies (14.1% of votes), improving the results of four years ago when Vox premiered in the Andalusian Chamber with 12 seats and 11% of the votes. The PSOE of Juan Espadas would get 33 seats, a result, in any case worse than that obtained by Susana Díaz.

Despite the fact that the demographic air is blowing in their favor, in Genoa they call for calm and do not hide their concern that the good progress of the polls generates a sense of false confidence that endangers that large majority that seeks to govern without the backpack of Vox. This Sunday, at a rally in Cádiz, the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, insisted on asking for the vote without taking anything for granted and without paying attention to the polls. “Each vote counts and each vote can decide the last deputy in each of the eight provinces,” he stressed.


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