The CIS of Tezanos is fully involved in the campaign of the Madrid elections, with a ‘flash’ barometer, published this Thursday. The PP, with Isabel Diaz Ayuso as a candidate, it is the first party with a vote estimate of 36.7 percent, compared to 39.2 percent in the pre-election barometer on April 5. Vox, however, rises from 5.4 percent to 8.2. In total, between the PP and Vox they would add between 65 and 69 deputies, on the verge of an absolute majority in the Madrid Assembly (69).
Tezanos has changed the methodology and the data offered in this barometer. If in the flash barometer of the Catalan elections it chose not to reflect seats, in this case it has, and with hairpins. Thus it is clear that the majority of the center-right is in the air.
In an election in which mobilization can be decisive, the socialist Tezanos is throwing the rest to give excitement to May 4 and try to show that Ayuso does not have it as easy as the rest of the polls throughout Spain are showing. The CIS, no. For Tezanos, Ayuso is not clear about it and not only does it not have an upward trend, but it is going down.
In fact, since the pre-campaign began, Ayuso has dropped 2.5 points along the way, according to Tezanos. It is just the opposite of what the rest of the surveys say. What the PP loses is taken, practically by Vox, while Ciudadanos recovers a couple of tenths, but remains below the 5 percent barrier, which leaves it without representation. Putting Cs at 4.6 percent is an incentive so your potential voters don’t get too discouraged.
The sum of PP and Vox it could reach an absolute majority in its widest range, but with this poll in hand, Ayuso would be much more likely to stay out of the autonomous government in Madrid, Pedro Sánchez’s dream come true in a Tezanos poll.
By left, Tezanos can’t save Gabilondo too much. The PSOE goes from 25.3 to 23.4 percent since April 5. But Unidos Podemos does not come out well either: it fell from 8.7 to 8.4 percent in that time. Yes, More Madrid rises, from 14.8 percent to 15.1 percent.
In the pre-election barometer of the CIS in Madrid, carried out between March 19 and 28, and published on April 5, with 4,124 interviews conducted, Tezanos placed the PP and Vox below the absolute majority and gave air to the left, shortly before the electoral campaign began.
In that pre-electoral barometer, the PP is in first place, with an estimated vote of 39.2 percent, and 59 seats, in an Assembly of 136 with an absolute majority of 69. Citizens, with 4.4 percent , remains outside the regional Parliament, while Vox reaches 5.4 percent and nine deputies. The sum of PP and Vox reaches 68 deputies, one less than the absolute majority.
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism