In the first CIS barometer held after the Catalan elections, the socialist José Félix Tezanos widens the difference between the PSOE (with a vote estimate of 31.3 percent) and the PP (17.9 percent) to 13.4 percentage points, and United We can sink a little more, which goes from 11.2 percent in February to 9.6 percent. Vox, meanwhile, is up from 13.6 percent to 15 percent. The Socialists rose 0.6 points and the popular lost 0.9.
This barometer was made from March 1 to 11, with 3,820 interviews conducted. The dates are important, because this study does not include the great impact of the political upheaval that took place in Spain last week, when the motion of censure by Ciudadanos and the PSOE in Murcia was known on Wednesday 10, which led to an electoral advance in Madrid. The expansive wave has not stopped yet, and has affected the Government of the Nation itself, with the departure of Pablo Iglesias to be a candidate in the Community of Madrid.
[Consulte aquí en PDF el barómetro de marzo del CIS]
In full Decomposition of Citizens, this barometer must be grasped with tweezers.
Even so, Catalan elections February 14 have given a boost to the PSOE, which strengthens in the first position, reaching 31.3 percent, in a trend that continues to rise this year.
The Popular PartyOn the other hand, after the disaster in Catalonia, where it only obtained three deputies, compared to the four it obtained in the previous elections, it falls by almost one point in just one month: from 18.8 percent to 17.9. The distance with the socialists grows greater.
While the PP falls, Vox keep going up. In this March barometer, it is already at a vote estimate of 15 percent, 1.4 points more than the previous month. Those of Santiago Abascal are close to the PP: they are only separated by 2.9 points in estimation of votes.
The formation that falls the most is United we can, in unstoppable decline, something that perhaps also explains the hasty departure of Iglesias from the Government to help Podemos in Madrid, on the verge of disappearing, according to polls. United We can now achieve a 9.6 percent vote estimate, compared to 11.2 percent the previous month.
United We Can is about to lose the fourth position, although this data is prior to the strong internal crisis in Citizens. Inés Arrimadas’s party remains at 9.5, two tenths more than in February, when it registered a vote estimate of 9.3 percent. Despite his monumental hit on 14-F, Tezanos has chosen to give a little respite to this formation, which has tried to get closer to the PSOE in recent weeks.
In the previous CIS barometer, in February, the PSOE was consolidated in the first position, with a 30.7 percent vote estimate. Almost 12 points below the Popular Party appeared, with 18.8 percent, followed by Vox, with 13.6 percent, and Unidos Podemos, with 11.2 percent. Ciudadanos was the fifth national political force, with 9.3 percent.
In the January barometer, the CIS reinforced the PSOE, with the third wave of the pandemic at its worst. The PSOE grew compared to December, once again exceeded the 30 percent vote estimate (30.7 percent), and was ahead of the PP by 10.2 points. The popular ones rose 1.3 points from last month, but remained at a discreet 20.5 percent
In the November 2019 general election, the PSOE was the most voted party, with 28 percent of votes and 120 seats. The Popular Party, second, reached 20.8 percent and 89 seats. Vox, the third political force, achieved 15 percent and 52 deputies.
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism