“The early legislative elections are the only way to end the uncertainty.” The words are from the president of Portugal, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, and will resonate until next January 30, the date of elections marked because the Portuguese socialist government has been in command for nearly seven years and some sectors advocate for a change.
In more than 47 years of democracy, ranging from the Carnation Revolution until today, never before had a General Budget fallen, a moment that sowed the seed of discord. There was no choice but to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and contemplate the evolution of events, since the communists and the Bloco de
Esquerda (equivalent to United We Can) did not give their arm to twist, so the ashes of the ‘geringonça’ – which means ‘gadget’, and not coalition – in force between 2015 and 2019 with the support of those two, were blown up. formations.
Everyone is in a brawl and there is even talk of a certain ‘Spanishization’ of Portuguese politics, in the sense that the tension seems to have settled more and more since it became clear that the elections were just around the corner.
In this all against all, the Portuguese political arena has entered the campaign well ahead of time. Christmas has been marked by calls to voters, especially by the start of the barrage of television debates between the candidates. It has been nothing less than thirty-three dialectical confrontations in the different chains, with several days marked by three of them throughout the afternoon and night. An overdose of mixed opinions in which he is attracting attention He arrives, a party ideologically similar to Vox.
The leader of Chega, Andre Ventura, is capturing supporters on the right flank of the supporters of the PSD (conservative), whose acronym refers to social democracy despite the fact that they are not related to that trend at all (it is still a euphemistic name to avoid being called ‘ neo-fascist’). That yes, the controversy accompanies it, because acknowledged that he has not been vaccinated and has been pointed out as a “bad example for the Portuguese” due to this circumstance. To cut possible reactions against, he has promised: “I will get vaccinated soon.”
While the socialists continue to entrust themselves to the paraguas of the current prime minister, Antonio Costa, the main emblem of the opposition continues to be in the hands of Rui Rio, PSD candidate, who has once again demonstrated his non-belligerent profile in the debates in which he has participated in recent weeks. This is a leader who has already announced his willingness to agree with his great rival in order to “guarantee governance” of the country. Many Portuguese don’t understand how you could possibly reveal a card like that less than three weeks from fight with the socialists at the polls. In fact, the candidate to occupy his chair, the critic Paulo Rangel, was about to evict him from the leadership of the party, but Rio finally recovered and won the primaries, held at the beginning of December.
Two sided attack
With these circumstances, the Portuguese electoral campaign is developed with the conservatives of the PSD fearful of Chega’s advance and also by the emergence of the Liberal Initiative (IL, liberal), thanks to the work carried out by its president, Joao Cotrim de Figueiredo.
Both Cotrim de Figueiredo and Ventura do not hesitate to raise their voices to denounce the anesthesia to which the Government subjects the Portuguese population. Since they came to power at the end of 2015, the Executive hides the numerous problems of the country with idyllic institutional statements They describe an unreal situation. The reason is none other than the path of unjustified triumphalism chosen by the socialists, with a reminiscent style to the strategy put in place by Pedro Sanchez.
All in all, Rio benefits from the intentions of the moderate vote and Costa’s relative wear and tear due to the management of the pandemic, not as hesitant or unwise as that of Spain, but increasingly discussed for its lack of results. Yes it hurts partisan fragmentation that is observed in his ideological field.
“These elections are being held in a time frame that is not ideal for the right, which believes in the prospect of an unlikely victory but that, at least, gives it the sign of ‘not-defeated-on-the-grid -de-exit’. And that, only six months ago, few believed that the unseating of Antonio Costa could materialize, ”explains political analyst Nuno Gouveia to ABC. “After the departure of Passos Coelho from the leadership of the PSD, the right has not stopped immersing itself in a process of reconfiguration and the upcoming elections will represent confirmation in this regard.
The court of Gouveia, «Arriving is more radical, like Vox, but with a less consistent ideology, and is captivating the popular classes, especially the rural and suburban world». The portrait of the analyst is completed in this way: «For his part, THE have a more urban social support, of the young and the elites».
While IL and Chega take positions and take advantage of the showcase that television offers them through its marathon of debates, there is another right-wing party that struggles not to succumb to oblivion. It is the Democratic and Social Center (CDS, conservative), which has enough to survive since Paulo Portas left the political arena and now places its hopes that Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos stops the bleeding of followers distributed among the electorate of a country with more than ten million inhabitants. If the CDS clings to the possibility of a resurrection it is because in the municipal elections held in September it obtained a slight improvement in its results. The context is different from that of the budding legislative ones, but its positive trend points to the horizon.
stop leak
He too PSD, who became mayor of Lisbon, is experiencing circumstances that could be the prelude to recovery of his spectrum, if he manages to stop the flight of votes to the IL, Chega and even the CDS. In fact, the new mayor, Carlos Coins, inspired the spirits of his followers when he said in the pages of this newspaper: “We have shown that it is possible to defeat the socialists.” A kind of ‘Ayuso effect’ He catapulted him to the city council of the Portuguese capital and, incidentally, began to point him out as one of the emerging voices of the PSD.
The paradox comes from inaction enacted by Rio, whom many accuse of seeming to be an ‘infiltrator’ of the socialist hosts due to their agreement with some laws that have only gone ahead because a sector of the conservative deputies, with him at the head, have approved, something unthinkable in Spain. In his four years directing the destinies of the PSD, There have hardly been any criticisms of the socialists. It is a clear reflection of his strategy, which is to wait for the ‘enemy’ to sink and then win over his most central voters.
The thing is, you can’t ignore the counterweight of the extreme left, because we must not forget that the refusal of the Bloco de Esquerda and the communists precipitated the current electoral scenario. “The disintegration of the traditional parties of the Portuguese right does not help to bring down the socialist government,” Gouveia concludes. And, of course, Antonio Costa takes advantage of the panorama to shake the ghost of ‘fascism’ which, according to him, is embodied in the figure of Ventura. Thus, the surprise can jump with Chega, who perhaps can open a hole fishing in a troubled river.
www.abc.es
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism