Thursday, October 28

The fourth with the highest risk of covid-19 outbreak


The Valencian Community is the fourth with the highest risk of coronavirus outbreak

The Valencian Community is the fourth with the highest risk of coronavirus outbreak

When on December 5 the Generalitat announced the measures to control the coronavirus pandemic at Christmas We came from a relatively calm week in terms of the evolution of the disease. He increased incidence of covid-19 -or «rate ratio» (RT) – it was already higher than in other communities (until November the Valencian region had always been among the autonomies in which the virus was having less effect during the second wave) but it did not reach 0, 9%. From 1% of RT is when it begins to consider that the virus is out of control.

At that time, the Valencian government allowed up to ten diners at Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve dinners and at the Christmas and 26 dinner, curfew until 01.30 am and the possibility that relatives and friends could come from other autonomies.

But then the situation began to change. Although during the days following the announcement of the flexibility of the measures, the incidence of the virus in the Valencian Community continued to decline, As of Monday, December 14, the bad data on infections soared.

The RT increased on Wednesday 17 to 1.36 points, the Accumulated Incidence (the proportion of people who fall ill in a period of 14 days) reached 271.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and the autonomy experienced the worst week of the second wave, adding 13,457 infected in six days. Until then, the worst week of the second wave was the second in November, with 11,112 positives in six days.

The six “two thousand”

Last was the week of six “two thousand.” From that Monday the 14th to Saturday the 19th (no figures are provided on Sunday) the Ministry of Health reported that there had been between 2,081 and 2,841 daily positives for covid 19. An average of 2,242 daily cases.

This alarming and sudden spike in coronavirus infections forced the Consell to change the plan for the holidays that it had announced just 12 days before. Not only did it return the Christmas measures to the previous exit box, but some were even toughened, such as the new curfew hours, the perimeter closure of the three provinces or the limitation of six diners in both public and private meetings.

The RT – a parameter that is obtained by dividing the current accumulated incidence with the one that occurred seven days before – is important since, in addition to indicating the trend of the pandemic, it also allows us to calculate the risk of regrowth if this growth is maintained. This regrowth risk – or Potential Growth Index (EPG) of the pandemic – is calculated by multiplying the 14-day AI by the rate ratio.

Well, in the case of the Valencian Community, and from the data provided by the Ministry of Health, we can verify that as of December 18, the risk of regrowth was 369.5 points, the fourth highest in all of Spain only by behind the Balearic Islands (480.6), Madrid (371.2) and Extremadura (370.6). The average risk of regrowth in Spain was 242 points that day.

Further, last week the percentage of active cases rose so much (at 1.45 points) and positivity (the percentage of positives out of the total PCR performed), which reached 16.78%, the highest in Spain. In the Valencian Community such a high positivity had not been achieved since November 20.

From Monday 14 to Saturday 19 the councilor has reported an average of 2,242 daily positives

Another parameter that indicates with figures the evident deterioration of the situation and the need to take drastic measures is the weekly growth of the accumulated incidence. For the first time since mid-November, the percentage incidence of the virus increased compared to the previous week.

After the October bridge, the presence of the covid in the Valencian Community had been increasing, increasing the percentages up to 53.6%. Little by little, this increase in incidence was becoming less and less significant until as of November 19, growth began to be negative. In other words, the proportion of people who fell ill with coronavirus was always lower than the same day of the previous week.

But just last Tuesday, December 15, the trend changed again, this time for the worse. That day was registered the highest number of positives in the second wave in the Valencian territory: 2,841 cases and a 23% rise in AI compared to 7 days before. Since then, this parameter has not stopped rising (27.9% on the 16th and 35.7% on the 17th) in parallel to that of the RT (1.23 points on the 15th; 1.28 on the 16th; 1, 36 on the 17) and the risk of regrowth (294 points on the 16th, 326; 1 on the 17th and 369.5 on the 18th).

A complicated situation that, let’s remember, occurs when the foreseeable rebound in cases as a result of the last bank holiday.


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