Sunday, December 5

The Government’s summer respite before a hot autumn

The Government of Pedro Sánchez has taken a breather to gain momentum in the face of an autumn that is looming very intense with the negotiation of the 2022 Budgets, tense with its coalition partner as a result of issues such as the Monarchy or the housing law and very bitter with the conservative opposition.

After holding the last Council of Ministers this week and with a profound remodeling of the Executive that has already started to roll, Sánchez has headed to La Mareta (Lanzarote) to rest a few weeks before the next meeting of your cabinet, predictably at the end of August.

A meeting that will mark the beginning of the new political course and that it will continue to be conditioned by the covid pandemic and its economic consequences. It is precisely in the Budgets and in the funds of the European Union where the Government trusts the recovery of the country, which, for the moment, seems to be on track due to the latest data.

Both those of employment, with a historical drop in unemployment in July, although still a long way from the goal, and growth, with forecasts by the European Commission for Spain of 6.3% for 2022.

Although the opposition leader, Pablo Casado, will not be able to confront much with the Government by reading these data, he does have ready your artillery for the big issues of autumn, starting with public accounts without the prospect of dialogue, much less agreement.

Will continue with Catalan crisis, since the dialogue table -the second after a first in February 2020- will be held in September and for Casado this forum is nothing more than a new surrender of Sánchez to separatism.

There will also be clashes on account of the law of Democratic Memory and for European funds, between accusations of inability to execute them or doubts about the destination that they will be given.

And then apart is the crusade for the pending renewal of the constitutional bodies, including the General Council of the Judiciary, that the PP refuses to negotiate.

A new motion of censure against Sánchez can be expected from Vox, as they have dropped although without specifying, but above all what Santiago Abascal seeks is to reactivate his project with a massive act in October under the slogan “Spain on foot”, after spending a few months losing steam in the polls.

Ciudadanos has returned to this block of frontal conflict with the Government, especially due to Catalonia, after the parenthesis of the agreements on states of alarm, and everything indicates that it will not even enter the budget negotiation with the conviction that Sánchez you have already chosen your pro-independence and separatist support for the entire legislative journey.

Therefore, they will lose all the focus that the oranges had in the negotiation of the 2021 accounts and that Sánchez gave them.

The president’s relationship with his Podemos partners seemed to have relaxed a bit after Pablo Iglesias left the Executive and politics, although the Government’s authorization of a partial takeover of Naturgy to an Australian fund or the expansion of the El Prat airport have sparked criticism from the purple part of the Executive.

In addition, the new secretary general of the party and minister of Social Rights, Ione Belarra, has also returned to the fray this week attacking the Monarchy and the King Emeritus for his march to Abu Dhabi.

In any case, the frictions that the two parties continue to face can rise a lot during the budget negotiation, although now the weight of the purple in the government coalition falls on Yolanda Díaz, with a calmer mood but also aware that the OPA de Naturgy and the expansion of El Prat may not be understood by its potential electorate.

It is likely that there will be clashes between both parties, Above all, due to the labor reform and the regulation of rents, committed in the government pact, and also friction due to the increase in the interprofessional minimum wage or the required tax reform of Podemos.

Internally, Podemos could take advantage of the start of the course to touch one of his five ministers, although it is something that sources of the formation rule out at this time.

With their investiture partners, specifically with ERC, the Socialists have improved the climate after the pardons to the prisoners of the “procés” or the transfer to the Generalitat of 56 powers, apart from the expansion of El Prat, and the relationship advances by now with the dialogue table in September.

But this does not mean that the Government has the path traveled with the Catalan republicans With regard to the Budgets and, in fact, the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, has warned that they will not include political concessions “that have nothing to do” with them in the public accounts.

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