The real campaign starts now. The CIS poll, the largest of those carried out so far, with 4,124 interviews between March 19 and 28, has been a significant boost of morale in the left-wing bloc, which came at a clear disadvantage in other polls. The tie offered by the CIS between the two blocks to 68 seats – in Madrid there is no odd Parliament as in other communities – is an incentive for the PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos, who see how despite the spectacular growth of the PP, which is on its way to devastate, there is a real possibility that the bloc on the right does not add up and the left may recover Madrid after 26 years.
In reality, the progressive bloc already added more seats once, in 2003, but the tamayazo —The betrayal of two socialist deputies— prevented Rafael Simancas from being president and since then the right has always added more, although only in 2011 with a great distance. In fact, in 2015, when the left managed to take over the Madrid City Council, Cristina Cifuentes kept the Community and by adding Ciudadanos, she achieved an absolute majority for a single seat and thanks to the loss of 130,000 IU votes, which remained in the 4.2% and did not pass the 5% cut.
Now that death trap of 5%, which other communities do not have – in Catalonia it is 3% – can be fatal for the right wing, because both Ciudadanos and Vox could fall into it, according to the CIS. The public institute survey leaves the party of Inés Arrimadas out of the Assembly and that of Santiago Abascal on the verge of falling to that precipice, with 5.4%, because Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who has a better rating among Vox voters than the candidate herself, Rocío Monasterio, would manage to concentrate almost the entire vote of the right, the great dream of Pablo Casado. However, those remnants of Cs and Vox, if they finally did not enter, could allow the left to add, provided that there is a very important mobilization of the progressive vote in the month that remains for the elections.
The CIS poll clearly detects that the conservative bloc seems more motivated to go to vote, but in general there is an unexpected mobilization that has surprised the pollsters themselves – 75% of those surveyed say with certainty that they will go to vote, something unlikely in early elections, held on Tuesday and with the fear of the covid very present – and marks the start of a hectic month in which the two blocks are going to overturn almost as if they were a general election, because the immediate consequences are undeniable they will have for national politics. Unidos Podemos has decided directly to put its leader, Pablo Iglesias, into the fray, but in La Moncloa they pointed out that with these data from the CIS their plans to overturn everything possible to the president, Pedro Sánchez, who already this Sunday entered the clash with force against Díaz Ayuso, and all the rest of the Government and the party.
Elections in Madrid: what does the CIS survey say (and what not)?
The president of Madrid, an absolute unknown in politics only two years ago, when Pablo Casado decided by surprise that she was the candidate, is the great protagonist of the elections and the favorite without discussion, thanks to a strategy of clash with Sánchez designed by his guru, Miguel Ángel Rodríguez, who was already José María Aznar in the 90s. All the pollsters consulted indicate that at this time the most likely option for the Government after May 4 continues to be that of Ayuso with the support of Vox. No one has just believed the possibility that Abascal’s party, in full swing in recent months, is left out of the Assembly. However, the CIS has opened a door that nobody has just closed completely, and it is the possibility of a surprise based on an unexpected mobilization of the progressive vote to avoid the first government with vice presidents and advisers of the extreme right in a region of the most powerful in Spain and one of those with the most political weight.
Both in La Moncloa – from where the socialist campaign is directed with Iván Redondo at the forefront of the strategy – and from United We Can and More Madrid, data from the CIS were taken, especially the guts of the survey, which speak of the possibility of a important mobilization of voters despite the atypical of the call, as a boost to raise the tone of the campaign of the left bloc, which until now seemed more stopped in the face of the onslaught of the PP, which is showing great strength in Madrid. “There is a lot of time left and the CIS shows that there is a party, everything depends on the mobilization of the progressive vote especially in some neighborhoods of Madrid and especially outside the capital, in the industrial belt,” agreed several socialist leaders and United We Can or More Country.
Meanwhile, from the PP, where they are very confident in the victory and in continuing to govern Madrid, the great concern is that Vox may not reach 5%. But all the strategists consulted point out that Abascal’s group always goes from less to more at the end of their campaigns and they see it very difficult for him to stay out. In any case, the leaders of the left bloc who were consulted insisted that if there is not a spectacular mobilization of progressive voters, it is almost certain that Ayuso will continue to be president of Madrid. Some believe that the CIS is being too optimistic about the left. He has done it on several occasions in recent months, with resounding failures, especially in the second overall in 2019, but he was quite right in the recent Catalans, with the victory of the PSC.
The CIS poll speaks of very close elections. The survey gives victory to the PP, with a 32% intention to vote and 59 seats, and places it with the possibility of achieving 68 deputies, to a majority seat in the Madrid Assembly, if it adds its support with those of Vox, to which it grants 5.4% of the votes and nine seats. The poll also grants 68 deputies to the bloc on the left. The PSOE would obtain 25.3% of the votes and 38 seats; More Madrid, 14.8% and 20 deputies; and Podemos, 8.7% in vote and 10 representatives. The study leaves both Ciudadanos – who would achieve 4.4% of the votes, below the limit to enter the regional parliament, 5% – and Vox – with 5.4% – at risk of losing their representation in the Madrid camera.
The absolute majority after the elections of the next 4-M will not be located in the current 67 seats, but it will take 69 deputies to obtain it. Instead of the 132 representatives in the current legislature, 136 will be elected in the next, by virtue of the population growth of the last register. In 2019, the Madrid president ruled with 30 seats despite the fact that the PSOE won the elections with 37, thanks to the fact that it added with Ciudadanos en coalición (26) and Vox supporting from outside (12).
The tie between the block on the right and the left drawn by the poll has not been without controversy. The co-founder and main researcher of Metroscopia, José Pablo Ferrándiz, considers that the seats granted by the center directed by José Félix Tezanos are erroneous: “We do not question the CIS vote estimate, but there is a mathematical error in the calculation of seats . If this were the final result of the 4-M, those would not be the deputies that would correspond in the Assembly ”. Ferrándiz explains that the numbers are stubborn, and, when entering the estimated percentages in a D’Hondt simulator – a formula that allows obtaining the number of elected positions in each candidacy, in proportion to the votes obtained – that number of seats should not come out. . According to his calculations, according to the vote estimate, the bloc on the left would obtain 70 deputies and would surpass the right, with 66 representatives.
However, the director of the CIS completely refutes this thesis that points out this presumed error and ensures that the two columns, that of the percentage estimate and that of the seats, “respond to different realities”, that is, it has not been obtained the second applying the D’Hont law to the first, as Ferrándiz has done. “The first estimate responds to the model that has the most probability, the second is a median of several models,” says Tezanos. The president of the CIS explains that the great complexity of the data of these elections, with the possibility that Ciudadanos enters or leaves the Assembly by very few votes, which would lead him to have between 0 and 7 seats by very few tenths, has Advised not to use the forks that are used on other occasions, because they would be too wide depending on that unknown of the Arrimadas party, and they have led to an estimate of seats with a combination of several models.
The Madrid elections, which Díaz Ayuso called in advance on March 10 after hearing the motion of the PSOE and Ciudadanos to remove the popular Fernando López Miras from power in Murcia, are decisive for the entire board of Spanish politics. The one who is playing the most is undoubtedly the right wing, which is the one who governs and has the most to lose. If he manages to consolidate his majority and govern with Vox, Ayuso will mark the way for Pablo Casado, who had opted to move away from the Abascal formation. A great success by Ayuso could re-launch the moral decline of the right-wing bloc throughout Spain, although in La Moncloa they believe that as long as it approaches Vox, Casado and the PP have no possibilities of governing throughout the country because the sociological reality of Madrid does not it is that of all Spain.
On the left, on the other hand, not only the ability of Iglesias to save his own party in the place where he was born is at stake, but also the eternal fight with Más Madrid and above all the ability of the bloc that governs in La Moncloa to mobilize to their voters at a particularly difficult time, with a deep economic crisis underway and a vaccination plan that has not yet taken off.
The conclusions of this latest study contrast with the polls published in recent weeks, since until now there was no talk of a tie between the bloc on the right and the bloc on the left. The first polls published between March 15 and April 4, such as that of Sigma Dos last Sunday, suggest that the PP would win with around 38% of the votes and Ayuso would obtain 61-62 deputies. Ángel Gabilondo’s PSOE, which won the 2019 elections with 37 deputies, would become second force with 25% of the votes and taking 33-35 seats, while Podemos, led by Pablo Iglesias, would get 8% of the votes and would thus rise to 11-12 seats compared to the current 7. Vox would achieve 10% of the votes, taking 10-11 seats and would fall from the 12-13 that the last poll gave it, thus contesting the third place with Más Madrid, which has a forecast of 11% of the votes and about 18 -20 seats. Ciudadanos would obtain 4% of the votes, below the 5% limit, and would be left without representation.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.