Friday, March 29

The Macron government returns after the holidays with its sights set on a difficult autumn


A rented marked by the energy crisis and the possibility of a social outburst. The French Government meets this Wednesday in its first council of ministers after the summer break. This start of the new political course is, without a doubt, marked by the inflation and sobriety measures. A worsening of ordinary life, especially of its working classes, which fuels the malaise. Seeing the current wave of strikes in the United Kingdom, the French Executive considers the hypothesis of a hot autumndespite the unpredictability of social movements —as sociologists remind us, there is not always a direct correlation between the economic situation and the protests—.

“Must accept the price of our freedom and our values“said the president Emmanuel Macron last Friday during the act of commemoration of the liberation of Bornes-las-Mimosas, where the victory against the Nazis began in the southern fringe of France. This speech of “blood, sweat and tears” reproduced the tone of the centrist leader in the traditional interview on July 14 (national day), in which he asked the French to “collectively assume a logic of sobriety” of energy.

Before the French political class went on vacation, the National Assembly approved in August a purchasing power law. With this text, some taxes were abolished (such as the audiovisual tax), rent increases were limited to 3.5% and pensions, social assistance and civil servant salaries increased between 3% and 4% —a rise of less than 6.1% inflation in France in July. Also 30 cents per liter of gasoline was subsidized from September, a measure adopted after an agreement with The Republicans (LR, related to the PP), the new key partner of macronismo in this legislature in which it does not have an absolute majority in the Parliament.

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“A rented of nitroglycerin”

This law will hardly prevent inflation and energy crisis mark the debate at this beginning of the new political and social course. Thanks to the fact of having a state electricity company (EDF) and being able to limit the rise in the electricity bill to 4%, France recorded lower inflation than its neighbors, such as Germany, Spain or Italy. But taking into account the current skyrocketing price of gas – it reached its annual record of 275 euros per megawatt hour on Wednesday – and the noisy reputation of French society, the situation is easily flammable.

“The social pressure of rented It is a classic at the end of each summer. But this rented is that of the nitroglycerine“, noted on Monday liberation in your editorial. According to a poll for this same progressive newspaper, 68% of the French believe that this fall will be marked by social movements.

“The legislative package adopted by Parliament at the beginning of the month did not solve this question (of purchasing power), not at all! But in addition to that, ask the French about the reform of the unemployment system, of the RSA (equivalent of the minimum income vital), silence about wages or concern about the fact that raise the minimum retirement age (from 62 to 65 years old)… You will see”, he added liberation about some of the most unpopular reforms that Macronism is preparing. In principle, they are scheduled for the coming months, although the Executive tries to communicate rather little about them.

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Protests planned by the left and the unions

The rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon —strong man of the new unitary alliance of the wow— had already called a march in September against “expensive life” in July. The unions also announced a first day of national protests for the September 29th in order to denounce the Government’s refusal to a significant increase in the lowest wages, including the minimum wage. Despite the usual distrust between the trade union world and the political world, both actors maintain a constant dialogue to ensure that these protests are a success. On the other hand, from the Executive they trust that they will remain in little thing and the demobilization logicwhich has prevailed in France since the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic.

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In addition to the social front, Macron will face a political sequence full of obstacles. It will not be easy for you to get ahead the 2023 budget, taking into account that the Macronist group only has a relative majority in the Assembly. LR support could be key. But government sources acknowledged that they contemplate approving it by decree, through the controversial article 49.3.

Another highlight will be the presentation on September 8 of the National Refoundation Council. An organization —or communication operation, according to the opposition— with which the president promised to change his way of governing, often criticized for being too vertical. The French political landscape is not as unstable as in Italy or the United Kingdom, but the centrist leader begins a new course that will not be a bed of roses.

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