Friday, October 7

The majority of Chileans reject the new Constitution, according to polls

Only a surprise in the hands of those who have never participated in a vote could tilt today’s constitutional plebiscite in favor of ‘approval’, which according to all public opinion polls will end with a rejection of the proposal for a new constitution made by the Convention Constitutional Court (CC) in July. Some voices from the ruling party maintain their hope that the result can be reversed if there is a greater turnout of young people to the polls, considering that these elections are mandatory for more than 15 million Chileans and they are the ones who have pushed the demand for social changes. However, political analysts rule out that the above occurs and in La Moneda and the ruling party they only ventured to point out that there was a technical tie in the polls they received. Related News standard Yes The vote on a new constitution deeply divides Chileans maría josé errázuriz Both the opposition and the ruling party have expressed the need to modify the proposal for the Constitutional Convention. Only 19 percent support it without reservations. Thus, the constitutional process that should conclude today will continue its development starting tomorrow after even those who approve the new constitutional text agreed to modify it as soon as it comes into force. Thus, whether the ‘rejection to reform’ or ‘approval to improve’ option wins, the cycle opened at the end of 2020, with a plebiscite in which 78% of the population spoke in favor of drafting a new constitution, will continue. On Thursday night, the campaign concluded with massive acts of both options, as well as the end of the television slot that was broadcast on television for a month. In this, it was striking that in recent days a video appeared that showed Michelle Bachelet in a meeting with housewives talking about the positive aspects of the proposal. Although in Chile it is not possible to publish polls before the vote, the latest studies that have circulated on social networks maintain a solid advantage of rejection over approval by 10 points. The Activa Research survey carried out between August 24 and 28 confirmed the figures that have remained unchanged since December 2021. In it, 48.9% of Chileans reject the proposal against 32.7% who approve and a 13.2% declared themselves undecided; while the Cadem poll, carried out between the 24th and 26th of the same month, shows a 48% rejection rate compared to 38% approval and 14% undecided. Based on these data, many venture that the result will be clearly in favor of rejection, with 8 to 10 points of distance over approval. A center-left analyst told this newspaper that the plebiscite has been resolved for months and “there is no turning back” because the population did not separate the author’s work, that is, they did not separate the text from the controversial and discredited action of the CC . Likewise, he assured that the fact that they are mandatory and not voluntary elections does not change the projections of the surveys and that only the null or blank vote will attract attention. The scientist Gonzalo Muller agrees that “the die is cast” and that the belief that something surprising is going to happen is typical of irrational thoughts based on bias. “The space for a surprise is pretty limited,” he said. Young participation Both point out that it is unlikely that there will be a greater participation of young people that tips the balance in favor of approval since that mass entered the system in December 2021 to vote for Gabriel Boric. “If the turnout rises by 1.5 million over what was in the second presidential round (8,364,000), it will be distributed evenly between both options and will not change the result in favor of rejection,” Muller told ABC. Starting tomorrow, Monday, the Government of Gabriel Boric will have to conduct a new process and promote a political agreement between the right and the left that will come up with a text that is widely supported by the citizenry. And regardless of the result, he will have to start a new stage in his Administration just six months after assuming power, making a significant Cabinet change. Likewise, analysts point out that he will have to continue with his government program regardless of what Magna Carta is in force, an issue that, in the voice of his Finance Minister, Mario Marcel, can be done. The Minister Secretary General of the Presidency, Giorgio Jackson, maintained in June that, in order to promote the promised reforms, it was necessary to approve the constitutional proposal of the CC. In recent days, the ruling party had to respond to the controversial statements made by the president of the Communist Party, Guillermo Tellier, who stated that if the result is narrow, as they predict, “we must go out and defend the victory (of the approval ) on the street”.

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