Monday, May 23

The models suggest that the incidence will shoot up to 1,200 in the province of Alicante

Populated sidewalk on a shopping day on Maisonnave avenue, at the end of 2020, in Alicante.  |  MANUEL R. SALA

Populated sidewalk on a shopping day on Maisonnave avenue, at the end of 2020, in Alicante. | MANUEL R. SALA

Mathematical projections announce a pandemic scenario by covid more than disturbing in the province of Alicante. The projections made by Santiago García Cremades, mathematician and professor at the Miguel Hernández University of Elche, indicate that the cumulative incidence (new cases in fourteen days per 100,000 inhabitants) could skyrocket in just three weeks above the dramatic 1,000 barrier (around 1,220 for January 30), which would triple the figures that were recorded, for example, before recent Christmas.

That would be the worst of the scenarios that the graphs of the mathematical projections draw with respect to the cumulative incidence. There would be a better one. Or rather, something less alarming for the healthcare system. At the other end of the range of the estimation of the evolution of the pandemic in Alicante, the figures would remain at 676 accumulated incidence, also for the end of this first month of the year.

The incidence can go from 498 to 1,225 in three weeks in Alicante

The mathematician García Cremades emphasizes that the models are more accurate the closer the projection of the data to be treated. Thus, for next weekend, the interval would be between 623 and 786 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Meanwhile, a week later, for January 23, the incidence could remain in the environment of 653 or runaway until 986 new infections, which with In practice, the population of the province would mean that new daily cases would remain above 850 constantly for fourteen days. In the final stretch of this week, the province of Alicante has counted almost 2,000 new infections in a single day as a result of the excesses in Christmas gatherings.

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These figures, plus other data handled by the Ministry of Health, have caused the department led by Ana Barceló to announce shock measures on Friday to try to deal with the sanitary saturation. Specifically, the Generalitat Valenciana decreed the suspension of all surgical activity and non-urgent diagnostic tests, ordering to enable all acute and critical beds and starting to prepare field hospitals, in addition to prohibiting visits to admitted patients.

The projections of the models on the whole of the Valencian Community, according to the work of the disseminator García Cremades (Important 2020 award on behalf of the experts who have highlighted the importance of technology at the service of health), point to a less runaway scenario. In a week, the accumulated incidence in the Community would be between 305 and 422, compared to the minimum of 623 estimated for the province. A week later, just a month after the previous Christmas Eve, the Community would find between 276 and 524 of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, while the province would move between 653 and 986. Finally, the Projections continue to be more benevolent for the Community as a whole with an eye toward the end of this first month of the year: with thethe province being able to exceed the 1,000 mark in cumulative incidence at fourteen days, the Community would be between 244 and 583. Whether or not these predictions are fulfilled depends on individual compliance with the measures decreed against COVID and, also, on whether the authorities reinforce (or not) the restrictions to mitigate the effects of the third wave.

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Predictive models for the Valencian Community from Health data

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