Wednesday, October 27

The PP and Vox will easily surpass the absolute majority in Madrid




Isabel Diaz Ayuso will overwhelm in the elections of May 4 in the Madrid’s community. That is the first headline that comes out of the GAD3 barometer for ABC, where a strong growth of the Popular Party is reflected in this region, mainly at the expense of Citizens, which will disappear from the political map of Madrid. The president of the Community and candidate of the PP almost doubles her result, with respect to the regional elections of May 2019, but the absolute majority is very expensive, in this region and in all, and will only be able to overcome that barrier with the Vox votes .

Ayuso had long wanted to advance the elections in the Community of Madrid, knowing that his leadership has been strengthened and could substantially improve his result, so as not to depend on a partner, Ciudadanos, with whom he had a rather complicated relationship. Pablo Casado stopped that attempt after the first wave of the pandemic, by agreeing with Inés Arrimadas the regional status quo: there would be no elections, and no motion of censure would be presented. But as soon as Ciudadanos broke the pact in Murcia, last Wednesday, Ayuso spoke with Pablo Casado and made it clear that he had to convene immediately, given the absolute loss of confidence in his government partner.

The PP was fully aware of its recovered strength in Madrid when Ayuso dissolved the Regional assembly and called the polls for May 4. Internal surveys reflected a rise more than enough to leave Ciudadanos by the wayside.

The GAD3 barometer it was carried out between Wednesday and yesterday, Friday, with 1,003 interviews. If the elections are held right now, the PP would have 39.6 percent of the vote, with 57-59 deputies. In the May 2019 elections, their vote stayed at 22.2 percent, behind the PSOE. Almost doubles your supports. In seats, it goes from 30 a couple of years ago to almost double.

In the next Madrid elections, the absolute majority of the Assembly will stand at 69 seats, out of a total of 136. The regional Parliament will have four more deputies than those elected in 2019, due to the increase in the population, something that is foreseen in the legislation.

Leadership in Madrid

The elections are presented, in reality, as a battle between Ayuso and Pedro Sanchez. The Madrid president has been, during the pandemic, one of the most powerful critical voices against the policy of the PSOE Government and United We Can, and has even managed to regain support from many popular voters who fled Citizens and Vox in their day.

According to the data managed by GAD3, half of the votes that Rocío Monasterio achieved in May 2019 as a Vox candidate would now go to Ayuso’s candidacy.

The collapse of Ciudadanos is the second shocking image to appear on the barometer. The party that leads Inés Arrimadas in the whole of Spain and Ignacio Aguado in the Madrid region it will no longer have representation in the Assembly. His voters will go en masse to the PP, but many will also call on Vox.

Citizens it will go from having 19.4 percent support at the polls two years ago to plummeting to 3.1 percent. In the Madrid Assembly, at least 5 percent is needed to achieve representation. By not reaching the minimum required barrier, the electoral law punishes with leaving the box zero. The Arrimadas and Aguado party will see its 26 seats disappear en bloc.

If in May 2019 the PP, which was second at the polls, had to look at Citizens and Vox In order to add an absolute majority, with 68 deputies out of a total of 132, and thus achieve the investiture of Ayuso with Aguado as vice president, now the popular will only be able to look at Abascal’s party.

Vox improves its result in Madrid regional elections, rising from 8.9 percent to a vote estimate of 10.5 percent. His 12 deputies obtained then could now become 14-16. More than enough to seal a loose absolute majority with Ayuso and thus be able to keep the center-right in power.

The breakdown of PP and Vox

The pact seems easy on paper, but the reality shows a very bad relationship between the PP and Vox, especially after the total rupture that was visualized in the motion of censure that Abascal carried out against Sánchez last October. From the PP it is insisted that the scenario they foresee is that of a solitary government of Ayuso, without a coalition with Vox. But they will need your votes to prevent a Frankenstein pact in Madrid and revalidate the regional Executive.

The electoral pre-campaign it has only just begun and no expert dares to venture whether Ayuso’s leadership will continue to grow, and with it his intention to vote, or else he could resent the more than foreseeable tough campaign that his adversaries will prepare for him. The absolute majority would be around 46 percent of the vote. The PP would lack a little more than six points, from the result of the barometer, to be crowned in Madrid and to definitively elevate Ayuso as national leader. An option, that of the absolute majority, which is not ruled out by the demographic experts, nor, of course, Genoa.

That’s the scenario in center-right territory right now. Unless there is an unsuspected evolution of the electoral campaign and the vote, the left will only be able to readjust its forces. The PSOE It barely moves compared to 2019: 27.3 percent then and 27.8 now. From having 37 seats, it will go down to between 39 and 41, in an Assembly with four more deputies. For its part, More Madrid falls from 14.6 percent to 11.1, while We can-UI it falls from 5.6 to 5.1 percent. Between them, they will add between 61 and 65 seats, below the 69 of the absolute majority.

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