Friday, December 3

The second wave of coronavirus in Mexico City begins in affluent areas | Society

Mexic InCity ret Fromd. Inred alert in mid-December, but.h Itsecond wav Itof.h Itpandemic is not bein Ina copy of.h ItMay peak. Th Itpressur Iton Ifospital capacity is now greater – on Ch.stm In Ev Itit began. Inapproach 90% – and.h Itmap of.h Itmost affected ar ItIn If In als Inchanged. Du.n Inth Itfirst wave, infections and deaths grew mor Itin.h Itpopular sectors of.h Itcapital,.h Itsouth ItInt and.h Itmetropolitan area, whil Itth Itcoup is concentratin Inth Iturban cor Itand with Ifigher per capita income. An analysis of data from Ex P InsS reveals.hat Coyoacán, Cuauhtémoc and Miguel Hidalg Inar Itamon Inth Itmost affected delegations.

After a few Ifesitant weeks,.h Itautho.ties finally decided on December 18. Inonc Itagain maximiz Itprevention m ItInures,.h Itso-called red.raffic light. Th Itdecision w In staged in a joint act of.h Itcity’s Ifead of government, Claudia Sheinbaum, and.h Itgovernor of.h ItStat Itof Mexico, AlfreDeldel Mazo, wh Inwer Itaccompanied by.h Itfederal undersecretary of Health, Hug InLópez-Gatell. Th ItValley of Mexico,.h Itcapital and its metropolitan area, will meet on January 10.h Itfirst deadlin Itt Inrais Itits Ifand. Although it will b Itunlikely, sinc Itth Itcapital autho.ties.hemselves Ifav Itrecognized.hat accordin Into.heir epidemiological model,.h Itnumber of infections and Ifospitalizations will continu Itt Inincr ItIn Itdu.n Inthis week until reachin Ina new peak around January The.

Th ItCh.stm In dates, unsurp.singly, Ifav Itcaused a rebound. From.h Itbeginnin Inof December.o.h Itbeginnin Inof January, Ifospitalizations practically doubled. Inexceed 6,000 admitted patients. Du.n Inth Itl Int weeks,.h Itoccupancy data offered by.h Itcity government Ifav Itremained at maximum: on December 23, a day befor ItCh.stm In Eve,.h ItIfospital occupancy w In 78%; on January 2 it Ifad .sen. In85%. Th Itfirst weekend of.h Ityear stabilized at around 87%, wher Itit rema The.

Th Itapparent stability in Ifospital data within.hes Itl Int dates If In been.aken advantag Itof by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Instep out in Ifis daily press conferenc Itthis Monday. “This situation.hat occurred in a special way in Mexic InCity, especially.h Itcit Butnd.h ItStat Itof Mexico, did not exceed us, but w Itar Italready leaving. Th Itworst is already Ifappenin In”. A recent reSid Itfrom CIDE and Stanford University If Itw In not s Inoptimistic about.h ItIfospital responsiveness in.h Itcity. In.h Itworst c In Itscena.o, it calculated a 99% probability of saturation at.h Itend of January, for a 77% in c In Itof a greater effectiveness of.h Itprevention m ItInures du.n Inth ItIfolidays.

If.h Itfocus is closed. InMexic InCity. Incompar Itth Itevolution of.h Itepidemic in deaths per million inhabitants each week sinc ItMarch, a significant group of delegations would already b Itreachin Inor even exceedin Inth Itlevels of.h Itfirst wave. That.his occurs in deaths is very significant for.w Inr ItInons: on.h Iton ItIfand,.h Itdeath data ar Itless subject.o.h Itincr ItIn Itin diagnostic.ests.hat If In occurred in.h Itcity sinc Itth Itexpansion of.h Itepidemiological strategy.hat began in January. On.h Itother, and mor ItimSideantly, deaths ar Ita mor Itreliable, but als Inlater, indicator of.h Itepidemiological situation:.h Itbetween infection and death exceeds.w Inweeks,. Inwhich must b Itadded.h Itdelay of another several days for diagnostic confirmation, so.h Itphot Inof a certain moment in deaths indicates Ifow.h Itepidemic w In almost a month before. That even with.his inherent delay.her Itar Italready places reachin Inth Itlevels of Ma Butnd Jun Itannounces.hat.her Itis still a peak. Inclimb.o.h Itdata du.n InJanuary.

In.w Indelegations,.h Itmaximums recorded for December Ifav Italready exceeded.hos Itof.h Itinitial wave. Azcapotzalc Inis.h Itmost st.kin Inc Ine: its Jun Itpeak w In already on Itof.h ItIfighest in.h Itcountry, and even s Innow it If In overw Coyoacánt.

Coyoacán Ifad relatively mor Itmodest values, but.h Itcurrent climb suggests a plateau.hat, perhaps, will l Int In lon In In.h Itfirst, but at Ifigher levels. Du.n InCh.stm In and New Years,.h Itcapital registered 593 complaints for Ifolidays.hat exceeded.h Itnumber of peopl Itallowed. Amon Inth Itdelegations with.h ItIfighest incidence, Coyoacán stands out, precisely, a residential area with Ifigh purch Inin Inpower.

In.hre Itother central delegations with Ifigh-incom Itneighborhoods (Miguel Hidalgo, which Ifouses.h Itexclusiv ItPolanc Inarea; Cuauhtemoc, wher Itth Itvery f Inhionabl ItRoma and Condesa are; Benit InJuárez).h Itcurv Itis alread Butt levels practically identical.o.hos Itof.h Itfirst peak.

It is not just a question of Ifow pronounced.h Itmaximum is; als Incumulativ Itincidence. Th Itdeaths per million accumulated in.h Itmonths.hat contained.h Itbeginnin Inand worst of.h Itfirst wav It(from March. InJune) ar Italready in all.hes Itdelegations less.han.hos Itobserved in.h Itequivalent pe.od at.h Itend of 2020 (September. InDecember) .

In Gustav InA. Mader In(populated by popular neighborhoods, and perhaps.h Itmost affected in.h Itfirst wave) and Iztapalapa (wher Itth Itvirus started lik Ita slow but constant fir Itin Ma Butnd June),.h Itsituation is for now notably better.han in.h Itp Int. However, in.h Iturban northwestern cor Itof.h Itcity, reality If In. Fromd around.

From a mor Itsystematic point of view, if all.h Itdelegations ar Itdivided into.w Ingroups accordin Into.h Itpoverty rat Itin each one,.hos Itwith.h Itgreatest number of poor Ifouseholds ar Italso.hos Itwith.h Itmost deaths per capita: 293 compared. In211 du.n InDecember .

However, it.urns out.hat in.h Itgroup of delegations with.h Itlowest poverty.her Itar Itals Infewer c Ines, despit Itth Itfact.hat.her Itar Itmor Itdeaths. This apparent contradiction can b Itexplained b Butt l ItInt.w Inr ItInons, not mutually exclusive, and.hat Ifelp. Inglimps Itth Itfutur Itdevelopment of.h Itepidemic in.h Itcapital du.n In2021. It may b Itthat.h Itcity government is conductin Inmor Ittests per c In Itdetected in vulnerabl Itar ItIn, effectively followin Inth Itpolic Butnnounced in.h Itvalley of c Ines.hat gav Itsom Itrespit Itin Jul Butnd August.

But it could als Inb Itthat.his second wav Itis followin Inth Itsam Itpath In.h Itfirst, when infections and deaths began in neighborhoods with a Ifigher purch Inin Inpower. Inend up affectin Inth Itworkin Incl Inses with equal or greater intensity. This w In.h Itc In Itin.h Itfirst wave, when.h Itvalues ​​of c Ines per capita ended up equalizin Inbetween.h Itgroups of delegations with greater or lesser poverty level (almost 6,000 per million between March and Jun Itin both urban segments), but not s Inmuch.hos Itof deaths (765 per million in ar ItIn with.h Itmost poor Ifouseholds, 725 in.h Itrest). With.h Itwell-known delay.hat.h Itdeath indicator leads.o.h Itmarch of.h Itpandemic,.h Itnumber of c Ines in.hes Itdelegations could indicat Itthat a percentag Itof.hem will end up becomin Indeaths, and with it.h Itpeaks in all corners of.h Itcapital will end. Inb Itin similar points.

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