Friday, March 29

The transmission rate of the virus slows down for the first time in two weeks



After a record weekend in the infections of the sixth wave by the omicron variant, the new cases notified by the Department of Health this Tuesday in the province of Alicante moderated, with 4,858 positives confirmed by PCR test or through test of antigens, which represents a slowdown in the speed of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection. still very tall, this figure is the lowest in the province since January 5, when 4,376 infections were registered in 24 hours. Since then the infection has galloped, with 10,116 cases on Friday, January 7, which included those of the Three Kings holiday, the day on which the Health Department did not update the data; 6,335 cases, for example, last Wednesday; 7,600 on Friday; peaking at the start of this week with almost 13,000 new positives, the highest figure recorded so far on a Monday.

Hospitalizations are also stabilizing. There are 578 patients affected by covid in the hospital centers of the province, one more than on Monday; of them 70 in Intensive Care, one less. A light at the end of the tunnel for toilets after a black weekend due to strong revenue growth. The number of new deaths reported by Health is eight in the province and 32 in the entire Community, of which 15 are women between 62 and 95 years old; and 17 men, between 44 and 97 years old. The health authority specifies that they are deaths dated in the last 7 days. The total number of deaths since the pandemic began is 3,199 in the province and 8,320 in the entire autonomous territory.

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The slight improvement in the severity of the data points to the peak of the sixth wave approaching. Mathematical models indicate that it may arrive at the end of this week, according to the data handled by the mathematician of the Miguel Hernández University of Elche Santiago García Cremades. These numerical projections and the experience with omicron in countries such as South Africa or England, where this strain spread before Spain, suggest that the fall in the incidence in the Valencian Community will be drastic, faster than in the previous escalations of infections, so that at the beginning of February it could be around three hundred cases.

An Intensive Care unit at the Torrevieja hospital, during one of the covid waves. | AXEL ALVAREZ


This indicator, the cases diagnosed within 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants, also gives signs that the infection is beginning to slow down in Spain. The report published daily by the Ministry of Health reflects that the growth of the accumulated incidence, which had not stopped throughout the sixth wave, it stops and stops rising for the first time in a month and a half, standing, at the state level, at 3,306.52 cases per 100,000 inhabitants as of this Tuesday, 91.08 points less than Monday. However, experts are cautious and ask to wait for at least three days of drop in incidence to be chained to confirm that there is a change in trend.

This slight improvement is also registered in the Valencian Community, with a rate this Tuesday of 3,158.99 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 3,197.34 on Monday, that is, almost forty points less. Regarding the situation of hospitals, the occupancy rate in the Valencian Community for every 100,000 inhabitants is 35.5, below the state average established at 39.86. There are communities such as Aragon, Catalonia and Madrid that have a much higher rate, 64.5% in the case of the first of these autonomies. As for the The percentage of beds occupied by covid patients in the Community is 16%. The Spanish average is one point below. Aragón and Madrid have the worst situation with 20%. In the ICU, the rate of beds with coronavirus patients is 26.84% in the Valencian Community, three points above the state average. The worst situation in this parameter is in Catalonia, with 42.82%. By age, the group between 20 and 29 years old is the one with the highest cumulative incidence in 14 days in the region with 4,844.36 cases; followed by those between 12 and 19 years old, with 4,288.97. At the state level, the highest incidence is between 20 and 29 years old, and between 40 and 49 years old.

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In the last 24 hours there have been 15,066 discharges to covid patients in the Community. Since the pandemic began, 707,770 people have overcome the disease in the three provinces.


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