A loud detonation suddenly breaks the silence that surrounds one of the multiple ‘checkpoints’ that surround kyiv. The looks of the soldiers ukrainian army and the members of the civil forces of the Territorial Defense go to the sky in search of the origin of such noise. A large mass of smoke with several tentacles is still visible. It remains suspended at a low height for a few seconds. “It’s a drone,” says the commanding officer of this position. “A Russian surveillance drone, it is not armed.” Bad prelude.
One day after the incident, this Monday, and to date, four buildings have been destroyed in that area. The scene is ghostly. A large building engulfed in smoke and flames portends the worst. “I was a drawing teacher,” Valeria tells us. “I haven’t slept here for days anymore, I have a little house outside of kyiv,” she explains through tears. She collects the few belongings that have not been damaged. Her father, of Russian origin, helps her, while she shows some drawings of her grandson “What are they doing?”, she wonders.
The Syrian strategy is the answer to your question. The first objective is to create fear, and this is achieved by sowing the uncertainty of death at every moment. Now they do it with bombardments, it will be a matter of time before they use the dreaded double tap (double shot at the same target), and with sbootleggers targeting civilians inside and outside of cities. You never know when the next missile is going to fall, and with that anguish of seeing that it can hit everyone, people start to flee.
killer, not crazy
That is the main objective, to create fear so that they leave, because even if you have the image of a madman in mind, of someone who orders the killing of civilians, he is not. He is a murderer, but not a madman. If it were, it would have already destroyed everything, because it has the capacity and the means to do so. She is an assassin who applies the Syrian doctrine: tighten the rope more, but without breaking it. In fact, the four bombed buildings are “controlled damage”, because the impacts were not direct. She is the repetition of Syria, but in Europe. First start with small destructions, and finally end with entire cities leveled.
When certain lines are crossed – in Syria, the red line that Obama marked was crossed with the use of chemical weapons – the impunity of those who feel in power is unleashed. The hits of these missiles and the point where the drone was destroyed eerily coincide on the map with the Irpin triangle. It is not a coincidence, coincidences do not exist and less so in wars. The non-crazy doesn’t want a total massacre of civilians (because he’d already have one if he wanted to); his plan is more sneaky: he is clearing an entry route to kyiv. Because the only way to take kyiv is to raze it to the ground, and a razed road with no civilians is the key to entry. You can’t take a city like this any other way.
What makes the difference in a war is time, and the non-crazy is running out, so what he needs is a show of force and a symbolic victory. Those two are the tools to negotiate from a position of strength. The war is also waged with the press. Get informative opacity It is an objective, and the way to do it is to ensure that there are fewer journalists on the ground. Having five journalists killed and one injured in two weeks is not a coincidence either.
An Estonian journalist, a driver and myself were deliberately attacked at the gates of Cherhiniv. It was not accidental, it was premeditated. The pilot of the Russian plane saw us, lowered his plane and saw two guys with cameras, then he dropped the bomb. The SkyNews team he was also attacked despite being clearly identified. There will be many more. Hijacking information is another way to win the war, because wars are not only won on the battlefield.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.