Saturday, December 4

The voters of Ciudadanos and Vox also prefer that Ayuso win the elections in Madrid




Madrid’s parties have 50 days ahead of the electoral campaign, but not all of them start under the same conditions. The Popular Party counts in its favor with the best valued candidate in the Community of Madrid and the preferred one as president, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, the only one that exceeds the approved among all regional leaders, and with the best grade among voters not only of the PP, but also of Citizens and Vox, according to the GAD3 barometer for ABC, carried out between Wednesday and Friday of this week with 1,003 interviews. (See here the vote estimate, according to the GAD3 barometer).

Ayuso occupies first place on the podium in the assessment of regional leaders from Madrid, with an average rating of 5.6. The second best valued candidate is that of the PSOE, Angel Gabilondo, with a 4.4, while the former vice president of the Community and Citizen leader, Ignacio Aguado, and the representative of Vox, Rocío Monastery, share third place, both with a 3.7. The last places are for Monica Garcia (More Madrid), with a 3.6, e Isabel serra (We can), the red lantern with a 2.7.

Those are the general notes. But the most striking thing comes now, when checking how the voters of each party qualify, according to the memory of the vote of the last autonomic ones, all the leaders of Madrid’s regional politics. Ayuso obtains a quite appreciable valuation among all the voters of the center right, and not only those of his party. Those of the PP place their candidate on the edge of the outstanding: 8.5, but those of Vox are not far behind, and grant him an 8.3, while the voters of Ciudadanos score Ayuso with a 6.4.

The voters of the PP also approve of Rocío Monasterio, with a 5.7, but Aguado does not deserve any sympathy, and they leave him at 3.7. Actually the Citizen leader In the Community of Madrid, it does not obtain approval from anyone, not even from its own voters, which it had in May 2019 and who now, according to GAD3, are fleeing the majority to the PP. The old voters of Ciudadanos rate Aguado with a 4.5. In fact, these voters rate Ángel Gabilondo better: 4.6.

For the voters of Vox, the leader of her party in the Community of Madrid, Rocío Monasterio, deserves a 7.5, but they think Ayuso is better, scoring 8.3. Aguado is punished with a 2.5.

The center-right joins

These assessments within the Madrid center-right largely explain the result of the GAD3 electoral barometer, published yesterday by ABC. There it is observed how the PP, with Ayuso at the head, can overwhelm in the elections of May 4, it will literally engulf Citizens, who will keep the scoreboard of seats at zero, and will also attract half of the votes it obtained Monastery in the autonomous regions of May 2019. Ayuso is achieving in Madrid the dream of Genoa: to be able to unite the vote of the center-right in what they call “common home.” According to GAD3, the PP would almost double its result compared to 2019, and would reach the absolute majority in a comfortable way together with Vox.

In the barometer, the interviewees are asked about their preference for the Presidency of the Community of Madrid. Ayuso is the first option for 48.2 percent of the total of Madrid. The responses according to the vote recall offer significant data. 93 percent of PP voters choose Ayuso. A logical fact. But the popular candidate is also the favorite for the majority of Ciudadanos (58 percent) and Vox (61 percent) voters. Even 12 percent of those who supported the PSOE in 2019 believe that the best option to preside over the Community of Madrid is Ayuso.

Only 13 percent of those who voted for Ciudadanos in 2019 would prefer Aguado as president. The Vox voters they overwhelmingly lean towards the PP candidate and only 27 percent believe that Monasterio should be the regional president of Madrid.

The barometer thus shows the movement of the center right towards regrouping, which will allow the PP to concentrate a good part of the vote, with 39.6 percent. The absolute majority could be around 46 percent. If the PP does not reach that percentage, the 10.5 percent estimated for Vox would be enough for Ayuso to be president again.

While the center-right exhibits its strength, the socialist voters They show very limited enthusiasm for their party’s candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, who they rate 6.2. In addition, they also approve of the leader of Más Madrid, Mónica García, who became widely known on the networks for pointing a finger at the PP, as if it were a pistol, something that the popular interpreted as a “threat.” Only 56 percent of PSOE voters prefer Gabilondo as president.

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